NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/30

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/30

We’re looking forward to eight games tonight, and this is just about the highest number that I enjoy. The three and four game slates can be too few options while 10 or more is too many. Generally, five to eight gives us a good mix. We do have six teams on back to backs, so we’ll need to pay attention to what the slate brings us. Having said that, let’s lay the foundation in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/30 and see what paths we should be looking at!

What We Look For In Cash Formats 

1. High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x. 
2. Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night. 
3. Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs prioritized. 
4. Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this up front – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why. 
5. Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.

Injury Report

Blazers – Robert Covington (Q), Derrick Jones Jr. (O)

Heat – 10 players are either Q or O as of now. Goran Dragic is definitely out but that’s all we’re sure of.

Grizzlies – Jonas Valanciunas, Jaren Jackson Jr., Grayson Allen (O)

Suns – Devin Booker (O)

Point Guard

Ja Morant ($7,100 DK/$7,900 FD) – I know we skipped the higher end a bit, but we all know what players like Dame, Steph and Luka are capable of. I’ll say this – Dame is still a super attractive price on FD, but too expensive for me on DK tonight. Keep an eye on the Mavericks. They could sit Kristaps Porzingis on a back to back. Luka obviously takes the front seat of spending up in that scenario.

I’m looking at Morant since the price is so silly low tonight. I get it, it’s been almost two weeks since the Grizz last took the court. If we were paying full freight on Ja I might preach caution. We’re not paying full price and the Spurs played last night, not to mention run at a top 10 pace in the league. Without JoVal on the court this year, Morant has a 1.25 FPPM and a 29.7% usage rate. There’s no reason to think Ja won’t play 32-35 minutes tonight and only needs about 42 DK to hit 6x.

Chris Paul ($7,400 DK/$7,200 FD) – His last game was underwhelming but as long as his price is reasonable and Devin Booker remains out, CP3 is a cash choice every time. Nobody on the Suns is all that close to his 25.8% usage and only Deandre Ayton is close to his 1.20 FPPM. The Mavericks can struggle against primary ball handlers and have gotten smacked in the mouth the past two games. They’re in a tough spot against a good Suns team for them and I expect Paul to be the catalyst of the offense once again.

Dejounte Murray ($6,300 DK/$7,000 FD) – Nobody is confusing Ja Morant as a good on ball defender (he’s a negative in net rating), and I like this spot for Murray a good deal. He’s very underpriced on DK especially and the pace should be there in spades. Memphis is 15th but was missing Ja for an extended period. I always like to target Murray on a back to back since his teammates are a billion years old and he’s got the young legs. Murray is a surefire 30 minutes and a 1.12 FPPM with everyone in. It would be icing on the cake if San Antonio sat a player as well.

Honorable Mention – John Wall, Eric Bledsoe……..LaMelo on FD only, but I still have a very hard time with the minutes. Just leave him at 30-32. It’s not the difficult.

Shooting Guard

Zach LaVine ($8,800 DK/$9,000 FD) – It’s been a hot minute since we’ve featured LaVine, but matchups against the Blazers tend to change things. This game overall is a great one to target (could be a Picks and Pivots centerpiece at a guess) and LaVine is set to excel. LaVine drives 12.7 times per game and there’s not defense in the paint for Portland right now. Both teams play at a top-12 pace and both sit in the bottom six in real points allowed. LaVine is seventh in three’s taken per game and the Blazers are seventh in frequency allowed. This is just a smash spot for LaVine in about all aspects and we could get a super fun dual between he and Dame.

Gary Trent ($5,200 DK/$5,000 FD) – Everything I just said about the pace and matchups go for Trent here as well. Don’t get it wrong, Trent is nothing special from some aspects. The 19% usage rate is fine, but the 0.63 FPPM is not great. So why are we talking about him? Minutes. Equal. Money. Mind your business P.J. Tucker, you don’t count. Anyways, Trent has played a TON of minutes the past two games with 37 and 41. He legit has all of four boards and one (!) assist in that time, being TOTALLY scoring dependent. If RoCo is back, I might back off of this one but as of now Portland has lost Derrick Jones Jr. on top of everyone else. If you give me 35+ minutes at this price, I’m going to take a long look.

Wayne Ellington ($5,100 DK/$4,600 FD) – Another player who’s seeing a lot of time on the court, Ellington checks in nicely. This is a monster pace up spot as Detroit is bottom five but the Warriors are top three. That alone has some appeal, and now we see that Ellington has played at least 26 minutes in six straight games. There’s not a ton of ceiling to be had with a 0.86 FPPM, but the floor is pretty safe. He’d fit better on FD as we sit now, but let’s see what kind of value we get.

Honorable Mention – Tyler Herro – pending his and the Heat’s status. They said his neck is still a concern, but he played 32 minutes last game. We could turn to Kendrick Nunn if Dragic, Herro and Butler all remain out. Also consider Tyrese Haliburton on FD if going low.

Small Forward

Jerami Grant ($7,800 DK/$7,800 FD) – This is the second Piston but we’ll have one more in a bit. We’ve talked a lot about the amount of minutes Grant has been playing, and that continues unabated. The pace does him a lot of favors, as does the fact the Warriors are bottom 10 in rebounding. That gives him plenty of chances to hit the glass and show off the 26.4% usage rate and 1.12 FPPM that he leads the team with. When Grant is under $8,000 in a pace up spot, I’m very interested.

Gordon Hayward ($7,300 DK/$7,800 FD) – He’s been pretty average the past couple of games but the price has trended downward as well. $7,300 is not expensive enough for a player averaging a 1.11 FPPM and a 25.6% usage rate, leading his team. The Bucks play at a very high pace, which is a big help to Hayward as well. More possessions lead to more scoring chances and they are playing him all the minutes right now. Since missing a game on the 14th, Hayward has not played less than 37 minutes in any game. James Harden is the only player in the league averaging more than 36.8 per game, so that gives you an idea where Hayward is lately. Hayward is normally about 70 touches a game and this could be the one he shakes off the mediocre play.

Carmelo Anthony ($5,500 DK/$5,200 FD) – Were you sort of annoyed with Melo last game? Wishing he scored more fantasy points? Well, get over it quick and go right back. This game has a lot of mid-range salary players to use (Otto Porter for the Bulls as well) but Melo stands out. Just look at the last three games. He’s not been under 23 DK points and he’s shot 6-29 combined in two of them! When his shot worked a little better (9-21), he went for 37 DK points. The usage is approaching 27% in the situation the Blazers are in and he’s going to get 15+ shots again tonight. The floor is safe and the upside is too high for the price.

Honorable Mention – We get LeBron James in a national showcase game against younger players in Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. These are typically the games Bron gets up for. The price just isn’t particularly my favorite for Bron or Brown here. I think it’s more of a GPP stack. Both teams are in the top 11 in points allowed and the 15-20 range for pace.

Power Forward

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,800 DK/$11,300 FD) – I purposely went to Giannis here because we can chat about if he sits. This is nothing more than a theory. It does strike me as a spot that the Bucks might want to give him a rest. Charlotte is nothing great and eyes will be on the Lakers/Celtics. Greek has played 39,38, 36, 35 and 40 minutes the last five games. IF he sits, we can turn to the trio of Khris Middleton (28.7% usage, 1.44 FPPM), Jrue Holiday (27.5% usage, 1.32 FPPM) and Bobby Portis (1.16 FPPM). I would be willing to run two of three, so I can fit some of the Chicago/Portland game with them.

If Giannis plays, look out because we could get the vintage ceiling game. Charlotte is 28th in paint points allowed and 20th in rebounding. This is beyond a smash spot for Giannis. Who’s going to stop him down low? Cody Zeller? Not a remote chance. He’s going to be a total bully and he’s hit 53 or more FD points three straight games.

Bam Adebayo ($9,200 DK/$9,200 FD) – Bam is in flux for me as well. We need the Heat news, but if he continues to be one of the main pieces with no Butler, this is a great spot. Not only is Sacramento on a back to back, they are top 10 in pace and dead last in real points allowed. The Kings also rank 25th in rebounding and 19th in paint points allowed. Bam is 11th in paint points per game and averages about 15 rebound chances per game. This would be a perfect spot for Bam to be a focal point. If the Heat are relatively healthy and you’re in this range, pivoting to Christian Wood makes a ton of sense.

Xavier Tillman ($3,500 DK/$4,600 FD) – If you remember the last time we had the Grizzlies, they were the late night hammer against the Blazers. Xavier Tillman was expected to start for JoVal, and was on a five game streak of at least 20 FD points. Welcome back to the slate rookie. He’s been impressive when given the chance and should see 24-28 minutes tonight. That is plenty on both sites with a 1.00 FPPM and a 16.2% usage rate. In the early look, he’ll probably be very chalky on both sites.

Honorable Mention – Christian Wood, Kristaps Porzingis, Zion, Lauri Markkanen (I will absolutely have him in a stack if nothing else), Jae Crowder

Center

Deandre Ayton ($7,800 DK/$8,100 FD) – If you spend up on center, Ayton is the spot on this slate. Dallas is dead last in paint points allowed this year along with being 28th in rebounding. Statistically speaking, there’s not a better spot for Ayton. His usage creeps up about 2% without Booker and then he’s ninth in rebounding chances per game. Guess who leads the league in paint touches and is third in paint points? Yes, it’s the Suns big man. The two center approach on DK looks super appealing tonight and we may just spend up on Ayton over on FD as well.

Mason Plumlee ($5,400 DK/$5,500 FD) – It’s PlumDawg Night! He’s really finding a groove the past three games with three double-doubles. We’ve attacked the Warriors with centers all season long. I mentioned this earlier but the Warriors don’t rebound well and Golden State is 25th in points allowed in the paint. Plumlee is at 3.5 FGA in the paint and is shooting 73% on those attempts. He’s cheap and this is a great spot to use him. FanDuel is weird as there is no center more expensive than Ayton at $8,100. I’m curious to see where the ownership is projected. My initial guess would be Kanter or Plumlee are the most popular choices, but Ayton is in such a smash spot.

Honorable Mention – Enes Kanter (have I made clear which game I really like for GPP?), Steven Adams

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