NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/3

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/3

I hope the Pacers enjoyed losing to the Knicks because that’s what they deserve for Damontas Sabonis shooting the ball just eight times. It was about the definition of the way things went last night as both my favorite plays on the slate really struggled. Fortunately, the article hit on a lot of strong plays. We get a seven game slate tonight with a lot better options than we had last night so let’s get into the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/3!

What We Look For In Cash Formats 

1. High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x. 
2. Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night. 
3. Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs prioritized. 
4. Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this up front – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why. 
5. Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.

*Note* Luka Doncic is questionable, which would be a big shift in the slate. I’m not going to list the options right now but if he’s out, Tim Hardaway Jr. would be about a lock on this slate. The offense for Dallas has to come from somewhere.

*UPDATE* Luka is doubtful so we can fire up some Dallas value. Tim Hardaway Jr. is a lock on both sites. Josh Richardson is my next favorite value. Dorian Finney-Smith, Jalen Brunson and possibly even Trey Burke are on the board for value plays as as well, though I would prefer that grouping in GPP. Keep an eye on the projections as they update!

Point Guard

Kyrie Irving ($9,000 DK/$9,500 FD) – Oh yes, we will be playing Nets in this matchup. Kyrie and Kevin Durant are running the show, and without Spencer Dinwiddie off the floor Kyrie is up to a 31.7% usage rate. Both of these teams are in the top eight in pace on the young season and Washington has the third-worst points allowed. Irving is sporting just a 52.3% true shooting rate right now, which is a 5% drop from his career average.

Damian Lillard ($9,800 DK/$9,300 FD) – Dame Time is really too cheap on FD and fairly priced on DK. Will I play him over Kyrie in cash, probably not. However, if you find yourself with a lineup that you love spending up at the PG position, Dame is your dude to pair with Kyrie on FD. No team gives up more real points than the Warriors right now and Dame is sitting at a 30% usage rate. No team is allowing a higher percentage from three than the 44.5% Golden State allows, perfect for Lillard’s game. Even if this game gets lopsided, Dame has upside just like he did last time.

Mike Conley ($6,900 DK/$6,600 FD) – Conley continues his presence in the article because he just keeps producing and playing safe minutes. San Antonio is 10th in pace, so it’s a big upgrade for the Jazz in general who sit 27th. Conley is shooting the lights out at a 63.4% true shooting rate, but the 25% assist rate and 25.8% usage sustains him. Even with the 1.20 FPPM sure to drop with a few less real points, Conley is still a steady pick for cash right now.

Dejounte Murray ($6,700 DK/$7,400 FD) – One of the reasons I brought up Lillard is that there is not a lot of glaring value at this position so far. For the Spurs, LaMarcus Aldridge is still questionable but Derrick White is out. That likely pushes Murray back towards the 33-35 minute mark, and that’s enough to be considered in cash. If LMA is out as well, Murray has a 27.9% usage rate and a 1.29 FPPM. The Jazz are a good defensive team but with the Spurs pushing the pace, Murray still works.

Tyus Jones ($5,400 DK/$5,700 FD) – I’ll be the first to tell you that Jones is not a main target for me. He’s here because we try to find the lowest threshold at every position that I think we could use (at the time of writing). Jones hasn’t hit 30 minutes since Ja Morant went down, which is not super helpful. He does have 14 total assists in those two games and his true shooting on the year is 38.5%, worst on the team outside of Grayson Allen. He’s scraping by and you’re hoping the shooting comes around a bit. I would think some value will pop up.

Honorable Mention – Russell Westbrook, Steph Curry

Shooting Guard

DeMar DeRozan ($7,500 DK/$8,500 FD) – DDR would really only enter my pool if Aldridge is out again. He also is only SF/PF on DK, but slightly easier to fit. On FD, DDR is the highest I’d go because C.J. McCollum terrifies me at that price for cash. He’s taking four more triples a game and hitting at 45.6%, almost 6% higher than his career. Anyways, DeRozan is quite safe by the looks of things if LMA sits. He’s fourth in drives per game but outside the top 10 in field goal attempts when driving. That means he’s less likely to go into the teeth of the Jazz defense and opens up other opportunities to rack up the fantasy points.

Paul George ($8,700 DK/$8,000 FD) – PG13 is not my favorite play, but the price on FD still isn’t quite high enough. The Suns have been very strong defensively so far this year, allowing the fewest points in the association. Also, these two teams rank in the bottom two in pace. This is legit the slowest game you could get right now. It doesn’t check a lot of boxes that we really like, but George still has a 30.6% usage rate and the second-highest assist rate on the team. Phoenix does rank eighth in made three’s allowed, so George can overcome some of the other factors.

Dillon Brooks ($6,300 DK/$6,600 FD) – Much like Tyus Jones, I’m not in love with Brooks. The Lakers are ninth in points allowed and just average for pace, but Brooks is going to shoot. His usage rate without Morant is a massive 33.1% and he’s never met a shot he didn’t like. In the three games Morant has been out or missed more than a half, Brooks has recorded 19, 18 and 17 field goal attempts. His true shooting is only 50.3% right now, just a bit under his career average. At least at this price you know the shots will come.

Malik Beasley ($5,900 DK/$5,200 FD) – He’s cheaper on FD and I like him better there. On DK, this would be the range that we lock in THJ if Luka is out. Beasley hasn’t racked up a lot of secondary stats lately but the usage without Karl Anthony-Towns is what we want. Beasley has a 23.1% mark with just a 0.86 FPPM. Last time out was really the first time he’s shot well this year and if you want the Brian Tulloch Narrative factor, Beasley is an ex-Nugget. I still have a feeling different options will emerge, on DK if nothing else.

Honorable Mention – Bradley Beal (Westbrook is back but this game is an elite target overall), Dennis Schroeder (FD only, the DK price is outrageous)

Small Forward

Kevin Durant ($9,300 DK/$9,600 FD) – I will continue to play KD as long as his price sits in this range and he’s in a fast-paced game. I will never fault you if you go LeBron James in this salary range as LeBron is playing 35 minutes a night right now. Still, the Nets game opened at a 242 total, highest on the board. Durant is right next to Kyrie in usage and FPPM, and you can continue to play both together freely. KD is going to overmatch whomever Washington throws at him at the four, be it Rui Hachimura or otherwise. Durant averaging a block and more than a steal a game is just icing on the cake.

Keldon Johnson ($6,100 DK/$5,800 FD) – I’m not advocating to play three Spurs in cash but they are legit options, Johnson included. He’s not seen virtually any change with Aldridge on or off the floor, and he averages a 21.9% usage rate and a 1.11 FPPM. He has three games with nine rebounds or more so far and the Spurs will need help since the Jazz are first in rebounds already. Johnson is looking more confident from beyond the arc and the Jazz are third in three point percentage allowed. If DDR is driving and kicking the ball to avoid Rudy Gobert, there’s going to be opportunities for Johnson.

Rui Hachimura ($5,200 DK/$5,000 FD) – I think he’s a bit too cheap on both sites for the game environment. I do have some slight concerns about KD on the other side, and maybe Ghost has a stronger take on this. However, I think we see Rui go back towards 30 minutes. He only played 19 last game on a back to back, and now he’s had a couple days off. The sophomore has a 23.7% usage rate and a 1.08 FPPM in his limited time, an encouraging sign. Even with Westbrook playing in his Hachimura’s first game, he turned in a well-rounded effort at 17/5/3. If he pushes 30 minutes tonight, he should smoke this salary.

Will Barton ($5,400 DK/$5,000 FD) – Nobody will want to hear this but Barton is not a bad play tonight. When we can get a player that logs 36 minutes at this price who has talent and can score, we need to pay attention. He was dreadful from the field last game, but he still walked away with about a 20% usage rate. The T-Wolves are 11th in pace and fourth-worst in real points given up. Barton ended at 18.3 DK while recording TWO real points. These are the guys I look for in cash because when they shoot like an NBA player, the fantasy points will flow.

Otto Porter ($6,200 DK/$4,400 FD) – The disparity in pricing is absurd and Porter is a FanDuel special. This game should stay more competitive than the last one and Lauri Markkanen remains out. When he’s been off the floor, Porter has a 20.7% usage rate and a 1.13 FPPM. His true shooting is almost 70% which is ridiculous but he should be ticketed for 30 minutes. Dallas is playing slow but the Bulls are running at highest pace in the league right now. The Mavs are fourth-best in points allowed so far but the Bulls pulling their pace up, Porter will get enough chances to pay off his FD price.

Honorable Mention – Joe Harris, Kyle Anderson (I just hate the price)

Power Forward

Anthony Davis ($9,700 DK/$10,000 FD) – Davis has joined LeBron in playing more than 30 minutes lately, which means they need to be on the radar every single night. He’s under $10,000 on DK which I’m not sure should ever happen. On FD, he’s the lone pay-up option. The next most expensive could be Aldridge at $6,200 or Draymond Green in limited minutes at $6,000. This alone will likely get some ownership to him and the spread is only nine points, so I don’t factor in blowout. Davis has been a little quiet at a 1.29 FPPM so far, but flashed his ceiling last game with about 60 fantasy points on either site. I wouldn’t expect him to have any issues dicing up this Memphis “front court” that is made up of Jonas Valanciunas, Brandon Clarke and Gorgui Dieng.

Robert Covington ($5,000 DK/$5,200 FD) – These are the exact style of games that I want to target RoCo in. I played him in GPP the last game so he’s in the cash article this time. Golden State is top five in pace and bottom 10 in rebounding, opening up chances for Covington to crash the glass. He’s yet to break double-digit real points on 45.7% true shooting, but he can rack up secondary stats in a game like this. The O/U is checking in as the second-highest at an early look.

Thad Young ($3,900 DK/$4,200 FD) – You can see why paying up for Davis gets attractive quickly, because we’re going back to Rad Thad. He’s been playing over 20 minutes with Markkanen out and is averaging 0.92 FPPM. The 18.5% usage rate is nothing to sneer at in this salary range and I expect him to gain some traction again through the day.

Honorable Mention – Nicholas Batum, Naz Reid (I worry about fouls. Nikola Jokic is about 15th in attempts per game).

Center

Nikola Jokic ($10,600 DK/$10,600 FD) – The big man still leads the entire league in touches and is averaging a triple-double. He put up right about 50 DK in under 30 minutes last game, gets a fast-paced team that can’t defend and Michael Porter Jr. is still out. We don’t need to spend a lot of time here. It’s an elite spot for a player of Joker’s caliber, and the spread is only 8.5. If he plays his average of 36 minutes (top 12 in the league), he has 70+ DK in the outcome with the bonuses.

Thomas Bryant ($6,600 DK/$5,800 FD) – Bryant is a hair expensive on DK but very affordable on FD. We get the fast-paced game we talked about, which is a big check mark. Bryant is 16th in paint touches per game and seventh in attempts. Brooklyn ranks 27th in points given up in the paint and 24th in rebounds in the paint. Even with Westy being a pain and sniping rebounds, Bryant is still in a prime spot and playing about 30-32 minutes per night. He could be my center of choice on FD.

Wendell Carter Jr. ($6,000 DK/$5,500 FD) – Copy and paste about expensive on DK, but very palatable on FD. Dallas has been struggling inside the paint early, allowing points to be scored in bunches at 22nd. They are really missing Kristaps Porzingis as they are 27th in rebounds across the league, and Carter averages 14.8 chances per game. He’s logged two double-doubles already and while I like Bryant more, Carter could be an alternative if you can’t find the $300.

Honorable Mention – Rudy Gobert, Jarrett Allen

DK Core

Kyrie, Tim Hardaway Jr., Nikola Jokic, Will Barton

FD Core

Kyrie Irving, Tim Hardaway Jr., Otto Porter, Anthony Davis

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