Adam Strangis NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/27
If big slates aren’t your favorite, this isn’t going to be the funnest slate ever. I would also highly recommend checking out Tiers contests. Let the model do the work for you and the choices be cut down. We have a sprawling 12 game slate on tap and it can be overwhelming. Remember to not try and fit every single player and refer to the model when deciding between two players that are close in price. That’s how I do it every night and when deciding for the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/27 it will be no different to try and find the green screens!
What We Look For In Cash Formats
- High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x.
- Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night.
- Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs prioritized.
- Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this up front – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why.
- Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.
Injury Report
Pacers – Damontas Sabonis (Q)
Pistons – Blake Griffin (O)
Cavaliers – Larry Nance (Q)
Hawks – Cam Reddish (Q)
Heat – Jimmy Butler (O), Goran Dragic (Q), Tyler Herro (Q)
Raptors – Pascal Siakam (Q)
Wizards – We expect Russell Westbrook to be out, and they still have very limited bodies
Thunder – Al Horford (Q), George Hill (Q)
Suns – Devin Booker (O)
Mavericks – They could get players back from Covid tonight
Wolves – KAT (O), D’Angelo Russell (Q), Jarrett Culver (O)
Point Guard
Steph Curry ($9,300 DK/$9,600 FD) – Steph Curry ($9,200 DK/$9,600) – I will never tell you that Luka Doncic isn’t in play at the high end. However, this is the perfect spot for Steph. The Wolves are terrible, and shouldn’t blow out the Warriors. Minnesota also has the mix we look for at a high pace and poor defense, top 10 and bottom 10 respectively. They also rank in the bottom 10 in three point field goal percentage given up. Steph’s 31.7% usage and 1.39 FPPM should shine in this spot, and with these teams third and sixth in pace Steph won’t be the last one we see. It’s a great late hammer and the price on both sites is quite low.
That’s what I wrote two nights ago and it’s a carbon copy. DK only moved his price $100 and it’s just super easy to want to play him, as he posted 50+ on both sites last game.
Malcolm Brogdon ($8,600 DK/$8,300 FD) – I like him either way but if Sabonis is out tonight, I would argue Brogdon is more of a priority than Steph at the position. With Sabonis, TJ Warren and Victor Oladipo off the floor, Brogdon is sporting a massive 1.70 FPPM with a 33% usage rate. To get that kind of production for under $9,000 is impossible to ignore. Both these teams sit between 17 and 20 in pace, but there’s no way we can skip Brogdon if he’s the whole show for Indy tonight.
Chris Paul ($7,600 DK/$7,400 FD) – Another player benefiting from a teammate missing, CP3 is going to be a focus on FD especially. His price is not really high enough on either site and he took 20 shots last game without Devin Booker. With almost 170 minutes in the sample size, Paul is just over a 1.20 FPPM and a 23.6% usage, a bump of 2%. The Thunder are top 12 in pace and it’s always possible Paul wants some “revenge” on the Thunder (not really buying that but CP3 holds grudges man).
Cole Anthony ($5,500 DK/$5,000 FD) – The rookie is starting to look a bit more comfortable in the offense and has scored at least 13 real points in three of the last four. This is the spot that we love so much because the Kings are a DFS dream. They sit ninth in pace and give up the second-most real points in the league. Additionally, the Kings are 12th worst in points per possession to pick and roll ball handlers. Only Trae Young is ahead of Anthony among players with 10 games or more in frequency of that play type.
Honorable Mention – Luka, Kemba Walker
Shooting Guard
Bradley Beal ($10,200 DK/$10,300 FD) – It’s such a huge slate that I don’t think we need to prioritize Beal. However, if Westbrook sits as expected, there’s nothing wrong with playing him either. We’ve used Raul Neto a lot too, but be cautious about his minutes. Beal is rocking a 39.1% usage rate and a 1.63 FPPM without Westy on the floor, and the Wizards will still be low on bodies. The price is high but fair and I don’t expect Eric Bledsoe or Lonzo Ball to be able to defend him in any way.
Fred VanVleet ($7,900 DK/$7,900 FD) – I would back off if Siakam ends up playing, but FVV would be a solid target if not. Only Chris Boucher is better in FPPM than FVV, who sits at 1.18 FPPM. I always love targeting three point shooters against the Bucks. They sit in the bottom 10 in frequency allowed and bottom five in percentage from deep at about 38%. VanVleet is fifth in three pointers attempted per game on the season, making this a perfect spot to hit a whole bunch of them. Milwaukee sitting at seventh in pace doesn’t hurt the matchup either. You could also drop down to Norman Powell who has seen his minutes maxed out with Siakam out. Powell has a 24.6% usage rate with Siakam off the floor.
Eric Bledsoe ($5,800 DK/$5,500 FD) – Any Pelican is in the discussion against the Wizards who will be on a back to back, play at the fastest pace in the league and allow the most real points in the NBA. We don’t exactly set out to play Bledsoe on a nightly basis but the 20% usage rate and 0.87 is fine at this level. I would likely use him only on FD since we need two. There’s not a ton I can say about Bledsoe positively as a fantasy player, it’s more the suspected matchup and salary.
Jeremy Lamb ($5,100 DK/$5,200 FD) – We’ve only seen Lamb for about 100 minutes so far, but the 22.7% usage rate and 1.01 FPPM is pretty solid for the pricing right now. It actually jumps up to 1.18 without Sabonis on the floor, but does come with an 82.8% true shooting rate. The Pacers have shown a willingness to play him 30 minutes when it’s needed and he could be a solid tag team partner with Brogdon if Sabonis is out.
Honorable Mention – Donovan Mitchell, D’Angelo Russell (if active), Tyler Herro (if active)
Small Forward
Brandon Ingram ($8,000 DK/$7,500 FD) – He’s not a must on DK at all, but he really feels like a need on FD because when can we get Ingram at $7,500? He leads the team at a 28.7% usage and leads in assist rate. There’s nobody that could really defend him on the wing and and he’s not even taking as many three pointers as he did last year. This is way too good a spot and such a sweetheart price, it seems hard to fade. If I’m planning on using a Brogdon and CP3 combo at point guard, I will likely eschew any SF higher than Ingram tonight.
Evan Fournier ($6,400 DK/$5,900 FD) – He’s likely out of my price range on DK, but he’s a perfect compliment to Ingram on FD. Fournier is still under $6,000 and gets the same Kings spot the we love. It’s kind of crazy to see him with a 27.6% usage rate from Fournier when Markelle Fultz is off the court, but that’s the 141 minute sample size. The 1.12 FPPM is very solid and this game should be run and gun. It also helps the Kings allow the highest field goal percentage in the league from deep.
De’Andre Hunter ($6,500 DK/$5,400 FD) – Hunter just hasn’t left the court much the past couple of games with 36 and 41 minutes. Brooklyn may have defended well last game, but I’m not buying that yet. They still run at the fifth-highest pace and the Hawks are 11th, so this has the shootout written all over it. Cam Reddish hasn’t been playing the past couple games and without him, Hunter sits at a 0.97 FPPM. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Danilo Gallinari sit as well.
Cam Johnson ($4,800 DK/$4,600 FD) – Johnson checks in as a great cheap option and he actually has the highest sample size without Booker on the floor at 166 minutes. He’s got a 1.01 FPPM and a 23.2% usage rate. Now, a good chunk of that is second team usage but if he’s playing 35 minutes a night he’s going to have times when he can rack up usage. Johnson took 16 shots last game and is a nice salary saver.
Honorable Mention – Jaylen Brown, Jerami Grant, Gordon Hayward, Kelly Oubre
Power Forward
Jayson Tatum ($8,700 DK/$9,600 FD) – Tatum should never be under $9,000 on DK, and he played 31 minutes in his first game back from Covid. He did only score 39 DK points but he was short on his minutes and was under his seasonal averages across the board. Tatum and Brown both have about a 30% usage and a 1.30 FPPM, and Tatum gets to face LaMarcus Aldridge down low. Have fun LMA.
Zion Williamson ($7,700 DK/$7,800 FD) – This one is fairly simple because Washington is 28th in points in the paint allowed. Zion is seventh in paint touches overall and points scored in the paint. Now we kick in the pace and the poor defense and I’m very interested. I don’t love how Steven Adams is averaging 16 rebounding chances per game. It feels like it’s taking away from Zion a bit but he’s actually at 7.9 boards per game, up from 6.3 last season. Washington is 24th in rebounding and this is the spot for Zion.
Marvin Bagley ($5,700 DK/$6,000 FD) – I certainly don’t trust coach Luke Walton, but if Bagley is going to play these kinds of minutes he’s too cheap. Bagley actually has a 23.3% usage which is second among starters, but has only turned it into a 0.99 FPPM right now. Part of that is off court stuff, but the results have started to come a bit with the minutes. Bagley has played 30, 29 and 36 in the past three contests. The matchup isn’t the easiest but they need him to help deal with Vuc and Aaron Gordon tonight.
Jarred Vanderbilt ($5,400 DK/$5,400 FD) – We just saw this game and even in just 24 minutes, he hit 31 FD points. Granted, he had two blocks and two steals but this is still a great spot for the young man. He could be a sneaky double-double candidate as the Warriors are 22nd in rebounding on the season. The Wolves are even shorter tonight with Culver not playing, and are still down multiple starters.
Honorable Mention – Giannis, Kristaps Porzingis, Daniel Theis
Center
Clint Capela ($9,100 DK/$10,500 FD) – I don’t know if I could justify the price on FD, but on DK he’s my favorite center. Bam Adebayo just produced 67 real points against this Brooklyn defense and Capela has serious upside. He leads the league in rebounding chances per game and is fifth in paint points. It’s hard to ignore just how great this spot is for Capela and I just have trouble getting away from him.
Nikola Vucevic ($9,200 DK/$9,400 FD) – The smash spot for Vuc. He’s rocking a 30.3% usage rate and a 1.40 FPPM without Fultz. Who in the world is going to defend him? Richaun Holmes? Hassan Whiteside? That’s not going to happen. Vucevic can hit some three’s himself (43.5% so far, wowsers) and on either site he’s a dynamite spend up at center. Sacramento is also 20th in points allowed in the paint and 27th in rebounding. Vucevic checks every single box.
Andre Drummond ($8,400 DK/$8,800 FD) – At some point, the Cavaliers are going to want to get back to featuring Andre Drummond. I know they have Jarrett Allen now but they need to do what they can to get the price up for Drum in trades. He should play 30 or so here and he should also obliterate Detroit. It’s a “revenge” game, although Drum holds no ill will towards the Pistons. The only time he faced them he scored 60+ DK but played 44 minutes. Detroit is 21st in rebounding and 22nd in points in the paint. A sub-$9,000 Drummond is attractive.
Note – There’s not a ton of spend down options yet. Naz Reid, Steven Adams and maybe DeAndre Jordan are on the radar, but not enough to write up. Let’s see how the day breaks.
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