Adam Strangis NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/23
We turn the page tonight to another seven game slate and we have some back to backs. That could wreak some havoc later in the day but we look fairly healthy right now. There’s only five players that are five digits in salary on DK and we’ll have some interesting stacking spots as well. I expect changes like we always get in NBA DFS but let’s lay the base for NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/23 to find the green!
What We Look For In Cash Formats
- High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x.
- Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night.
- Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs prioritized.
- Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this up front – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why.
- Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.
Injury Report
Miami – Jimmy Butler (Q), Tyler Herro (O)
Brooklyn – Kevin Durant (Q)
Minnesota – Karl Anthony-Towns (O), Juancho Hernangomez (O)
Chicago – Wendell Carter Jr. (Q)
Houston – Christian Wood (D), John Wall (O)
Dallas – Covid group that has been out
Point Guard
Luka Doncic ($10,700 DK/$10,800 FD) – Anytime Luka isn’t the highest-salary player on the slate, we should be interested. He went bonkers last night and is in a prime spot to do so again. Houston is ninth in pace and in the bottom 10 in real points allowed. Even with Kristaps Porzingis on the floor, Luka is still rocking his normal 29.1% usage rate and 1.66 FPPM. We could see another vintage Luka triple-double and he’s under $11,000 on both sites. Wheels up. It’s possible (not likely but possible) the Mavs sit Porzingis on a back to back since the Rockets are without Wood. If that’s the case, Luka is top priority.
Mike Conley ($6,600 DK/$7,500 FD) – He’s actually more affordable on DK tonight, which hasn’t been the case often. Golden State is about 1% away from being inside the top 10 in three point frequency given up and the Jazz are shooting the lights out of the ball right now.
Conley is right next to Donovan Mitchel in FPPM at 1.14 and leads the team in assist rate at 30.1%. The Warriors play at the third-fastest pace in the league and this could be the late nigh hammer we dream of.
Goran Dragic ($6,200 DK/$5,700 FD) – We know that Herro is out for another few games, and Dragic is in a smash spot. Brooklyn couldn’t guard a triangle offense with me, Brian and Ghost right now. The seasoned vet may not be a dynamo at this point, but the pace and defense on the other side easily makes up for it. He leads the team in usage rate at 29.3% with a whopping 41.2% asset rate with Butler and Herro off the floor. Provided he gets 26-28 minutes tonight, he should smash this price.
Eric Bledsoe ($5,400 DK/$5,100 FD) – This would be more of a FD play since Nunn is the same price range and we have position flexibility. The Pelicans actually started to run up the pace a little bit last game, and that just makes way too much sense to not keep doing. Bledsoe’s price is very affordable and he’s at a 19% usage rate. That remains third on the starting unit but Minnesota remains in the top eight in pace and bottom eight in real points allowed.
Honorable Mention – Steph Curry, Kyrie Irving (if KD is out), Chris Paul, Jalen Brunson
Shooting Guard
Victor Oladipo ($7,900 DK/$8,800 FD) – I’m likelier to use him on DK but he owes us after flopping badly last night. We got the usage we wanted with him taking over 15 shots but Dipo just couldn’t hit water falling out of a boat. That’s not going to happen every night and the usage is still off the charts, approaching 40%. I don’t think this is a play we’re going to need but I’d still be happy to use him.
Donovan Mitchell ($7,800 DK/$8,500 FD) – Another member of the Jazz that is more affordable on DK, Mitchell is in a prime spot as well. We can throw out the narrative of Shaq basically insulting him after the game last time out. Things got awkward quick after Shag said Mitchell isn’t at a certain level. One way to try and prove it is to out-duel Steph Curry. During the seven game win streak for the Jazz, Spida is averaging almost 28 points a contest and I expect a big game with his 32.1% usage rate so far this year.
Kendrick Nunn ($5,700 DK/$6,500 FD) – It would surely seem like Nunn is going to be one of the chalkiest plays on the slate. He went for another 22 real points and 40 FD points, bringing his streak of 35 or higher to three. Dragic could see his minutes dialed back just slightly and Nunn has a very respectable 24.2% usage himself without the main players. Oh, and don’t forget that Brooklyn can’t guard anything.
Seth Curry ($5,300 DK/$4,500 FD) – Curry returned to the starting lineup last night and wasn’t anything special but did post 15 real points. He played 27 minutes which is a little under what he normally does, not a major surprise. The Sixers knew they had a back to back and this is a great spot for a sharpshooter like Curry. The Pistons allow the ninth-highest frequency of three point attempts and the fourth-highest FG%. For $4,500, we can do way worse on FD.
Honorable Mention – James Harden (if KD is out), Jordan Clarkson, David Nwaba
Small Forward
Brandon Ingram ($8,100 DK/$7,800 FD) – It’s always noticeable when Ingram drops below $8,000 on FD. He had a very odd game last time out in that he scored 16 real points in the first quarter and then….that was about it. He only scored seven the rest of the way. He and Zion still lead the way in usage on the team at 28% each and both have about a 1.14 FPPM. Ingram has expanded a little bit and now has a 22.8% assist rate, tops on the team as well. Hopefully the Pelicans start running a little bit more and the pace Minnesota plays at brings out the best in BI tonight.
Kelly Oubre ($6,100 DK/$5,400 FD) – You know this position is rough outside the top end when Oubre is second in the write up. I will say on FD that folks might just take LeBron James against the Bulls, as they run at the second-fastest pace in the league. That’s totally fine and if you do that, I may take a stars and scrubs approach. Oubre would be up next on FD as he put up 24 FD points last game on just seven real points. The Warriors are trying to hang out West and Oubre is only at a 0.88 FPPM to go with his 21.5% usage. His true shooting is in the tank at 44.1%. It’s 53.6% over his career, so to say there’s room for improvement is a massive understatement.
Eric Gordon ($6,000 DK/$5,200 FD) – Rinse and repeat for Gordon from last night. He’s never going to do much outside score but he’s too cheap for the volume of shots he gets. Just like Oladipo, he took over 15 and produced 20 real points. The DK price is a little out of my range since he would need 36 DK points for just 6x, but the FD price and requirements make it work much better. Remember that this season Gordon is at a 1.09 FPPM on a 29.8% usage rate without Wall and Wood. The usage will go down the longer Dipo is there, but still.
Honorable Mention – LeBron, Jerami Grant, Bojan Bogdanovic
Power Forward
Anthony Davis ($9,300 DK/$9,800 FD) – If you guys remember, Ghost just talked about there was going to be a slate that AD broke and we looked back saying, “why didn’t we lock him in?” and I think this is it. Maybe he’s not under the radar, but if Davis can’t smash this Chicago front court I may not play him for a bit. Davis haas 5.9 paint touches per game and Chicago is 22nd in paint points allowed. Surprisingly, they are fifth in paint rebounds allowed but they still don’t have the bodies to hang with Davis. AD averages 12.9 rebound chances per game and still has a 1.33 FPPM on the year.
Bam Adebayo ($8,500 DK/$8,700 FD) – Let me stress this – play. Bam. Adebayo. Tonight.
Got it? Alright, now let’s talk about why. I already mentioned ad nauseam how bad the Nets have been. Where they’ve struggled to a frightening degree is in the paint. In the past two games, they have given up 134 points in the paint. ONE HUNDRED AND THIRTY FOUR. I get they had two overtimes mixed in but my sweet Christmas man. Someone get a hand up in the lane! Bam already is 12th in the league in points in the paint and carries a 27% usage and a 1.41 FPPM with Jimmy Buckets off the floor. I’ll say it again – play Bam Adebayo tonight.
Draymond Green ($5,500 DK/$5,100 FD) – If Dray can not *checks notes* get ejected for yelling at a teammate tonight…wait, that’s what he got bounced for? Yeesh. Anyways, he was on pace for a nice game last time out before he left early and he’s back to playing about 30 a game. The Warriors are going to need his defensive prowess to help guard the three point line tonight since it’s been bombs away for the Jazz this year. You’re not playing Green to score a bunch of points, but he fills the stat sheet and can flirt with triple-doubles still. He’s a fine value on both sites.
Honorable Mention – Zion, possibly Jeff Green depending on the Nets status
Center
Joel Embiid ($10,000 DK/$10,200 FD) – Embiid has been on a tear these past two games, and I think on DK he’s not going to get a lot of attention. Since Bam is C only, the chalk combo is Boogie and Bam. Spending up to Biid is interesting. He’s scored 42 and 38 real points the past two games, while racking up at least 53 FD points in each game. I joke around that Mason Plumlee is sometimes usable in DFS, but good ol’ PlumDawg is going to get worked tonight. Even with everyone healthy, Biid has a 31.3% usage rate and a 1.57 FPPM.
DeMarcus Cousins ($5,100 DK/$4,900 FD) – I would suspect he’s overwhelming chalk again, though you can argue the minutes could be curtailed after playing 32 last night. Frankly, it doesn’t matter. He’s been a monster without Wood starting and 36 DK points with five turnovers and only five real points on 2-16 shooting. Ride the chalk and don’t worry. In cash, I wouldn’t get cute. Play Boogie on FD, and likely the Bam/Boogie combo on DK. We’ll see what the ownership looks like.
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