NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/22

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/22

This slate is massive, so don’t get too overwhelmed. Fortunately, the Wizards game was booted because that would have been massively chalky so we have some other areas to target. Let’s not waste a ton of time and get into this 11 game slate for the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/22 and find the path!

What We Look For In Cash Formats 

1. High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x. 
2. Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night. 
3. Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs prioritized. 
4. Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this up front – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why. 
5. Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.

Teams Missing Players

Houston – Christian Wood, John Wall

Boston – Jayson Tatum

Miami – Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro/Goran Dragic are qustionable

Atlanta – Danilo Gallinari, Bogdan Bogdanovic, possibly Cam Reddish and De’Andre Hunter

Minnesota – KAT, Ricky Rubio, Juancho Hernangomez

Dallas – Josh Richardson, Dorian Finney-Smith, Maxi Kleber, Dwight Powell

Oklahoma City – Al Horford

Point Guard

Trae Young ($9,600 DK/$9,900 FD) – Perhaps the 38 real points scored will wake Young up from his issues so far this season. Yes, some of it was in overtime but Young was a monster last game. He recovered from a 2-11 start from the field to go 11-26 and he continues to get to the free throw line like no other player. Nobody takes more than his 10.4 attempts per game and Minnesota is the same great matchup they were earlier this week in pace and poor defense. They also still are missing Karl Anthony-Towns, making it easier for Young and his 17.8 drives per game to find the cup.

De’Aaron Fox ($8,800 DK/$7,800 FD) – I likely can’t get there on DK but on FD Fox is still far too cheap. He’s pacing the Kings with a 29.8% usage rate and has a 31.3% assist rate on top of it. The Knicks will be rolling in on a back to back, and they won’t be able to guard Fox that effectively. Fox drives 15.8 times per game, and he’s passing 33.5% of the time off the drives. That will help avoid some of Mitchell Robinson and Julius Randle down low, making Fox a very safe play on FD.

Chris Paul ($7,200 DK/$6,900 FD) – The spot isn’t exactly as easy for CP3 tonight but FD won’t put his price over $7,000 so we need to take notice. Last game was his first under 30 FD in the calendar year and the Nuggets sport the seventh-worst defensive rating. They are missing some of the players they had last season (though they weren’t that good last year either) and Paul plays super consistent minutes. Neither team plays at a super fast pace, which probably limits the ceiling. Still, the 1.05 FPPM works at this price range and needing two point guards.

Trey Burke/Jalen Brunson ($4,900 DK/$4,600 FD and $4,700 DK/$3,900 FD) – The Mavericks are getting somewhat healthier, but they are still down four players to Covid protocols. That means Burke and Brunson are both still seeing heavy minutes, as they both cleared 30 last game. They also both have right about a 19% usage and Burke has the slight edge in FPPM at 0.81 to 0.71. It’s tough to lean to hard into the metrics because of all the moving parts lately with Dallas. The bottom line is the Spurs are 12th in pace. I’ll be looking to the model to help this decision if I play a cheap guard.

Honorable Mention – Luka, Malcolm Brogdon, Kyle Lowry, Ben Simmons ($8,000 on FD is tempting, but just play Fox), Goran Dragic if active and Herro is out

Shooting Guard

Fred VanVleet ($7,800 DK/$7,800 FD) – I’m going to use this spot as a catch-all for the Raptors. They could be missing Pascal Siakam tonight, who is currently questionable. IF HE SITS, FVV would be a prime target for me tonight at under $8,000. Both VanVleet and Kyle Lowry have about a 25% share of the usage and VanVleet is at a 1.31 FPPM. If Siakam plays, I’m just moving right to this next player.

Victor Oladipo ($8,000 DK/$8,500 FD) – Dipo continues to be a usage hog, with 38.9% through his first two games as a Rocket. He’s put up a 1.61 FPPM on just a 54.2% true shooting rate. To wit, he went 7-22 last game and still hit right about 45 DK. He and Christian Wood have been tied at the hip with Dipo only having seven minutes without the talented big. If (and very big if) the ratios held, Dipo would have a 2.02 FPPM. The Pistons sit 24th in points allowed and Dipo is going to be the whole offense tonight outside of Eric Gordon and maybe DeMarcus Cousins. The only reason I would think about a pivot is FVV, but Oladipo is not priced correctly yet.

D’Angelo Russell ($8,700 DK/$8,400 FD) – He’s expensive as all get out, which is scary with a guy like D-Lo. Still, it’s hard to ignore the upside here. He’s sporting a 30.5% usage and a 32.8% assist rate with KAT and Rubio off the floor, quite nice in and of itself. Russell has the ball in his hands an average of 4.6 second per touch, and that’s only going up without the pieces of the offense that are missing. These two teams check in 10th and seventh in pace, making this an excellent environment to target overall.

Kendrick Nunn ($5,400 DK/$6,200 FD) – Utter chalk last time he was on the slate, Miami could be down Herro and Dragic tonight. If they are both missing, I suppose we can turn back but this feels like it could end tragically bad tonight for our lineups. He literally just put up 12 DK points in 27 minutes not three games ago. Nunn has also shot a combined 17-27 from the field the past two games, not likely to continue. The only way I’ll play him is if Dragic and Herro are out AND he’s projected chalk.

Kevin Huerter ($5,900 DK/$5,900 FD) – He’s playable on DK now since he’s not $9,500 anymore and he’s filled in with Reddish missing the past few games. During those contests, Huerter has played 36, 41 and 39 minutes so we know that aspect is there. He’s nothing special as he has just a 0.88 FPPM but the boatload of minutes and the matchup counteract that factor. If Reddish continues to miss, I’m likely playing Huerter on both sites.

Honorable Mention – Reddish if active, Zach LaVine, Paul George, Collin Sexton

Small Forward

Gordon Hayward ($7,700 DK/$7,800 FD) – A matchup against the Bulls is fantasy nirvana, as they run at the second-fastest pace and are third in points allowed. That’s something we’re always going to stack and Hayward is under $8,000 on both sites. He’s leading the Hornets in usage at 25.2% on the season and a 1.09 FPPM. That seems odd, but Hayward has flashed ceiling multiple times this season. He’s playing over 34 minutes per game so that helps and is scoring over 22 real points per game. I’ll take that in this spot for this price.

R.J. Barrett ($6,800 DK/$6,900 FD) – They are on a back to back but coach Tom Thibodeau doesn’t care. He’s still going to run Barrett nearly 38 minutes and the Kings might be even better than the Bulls for a matchup. They’re eighth in pace but dead last in points allowed, a perfect spot for Barrett. He’s still struggling with his shot since he has just a 47.5% true shooting rate but the usage rate is 23.7% and the FPPM is 0.91. When you get him right for the shot on a certain night, he’s got some ceiling as well. Going against the Kings would check the boxes to hit that ceiling.

Cedi Osman ($6,500 DK/$5,900 FD) – Osman played an insane 50 minutes last game, but he’s typically playing almost 32 per game. Even with Sexton back last game, Osman still took 17 shots and Brooklyn is still a dreadfully poor defensive team. They still run at the fifth-fastest pace and Cedi is averaging 0.88 FPPM. The usage honestly isn’t even that poor at 22.1% although the 49.9% true shooting can bite you. With the minutes he’s getting and the pace of this game, I’d be comfortably playing him on FD. On DK, I’m likely going elsewhere.

Eric Gordon ($5,700 DK/$5,200 FD) – My initial read is you can play three Rockets in cash even on such a big slate. They are back down to about three NBA players, no disrespect to the players left. Gordon is cheap enough that we can overlook the fact he’s not likely to do much but score, and he should be given plenty of chances tonight. He took 20 shots last game and could attempt even more with Wood out for the game. That’s honestly enough at this price, especially on FD.

Honorable Mention – Jaylen Brown, Jerami Grant, Harrison Barnes, Cameron Johnson

Power Forward

Kristaps Porzingis ($8,100 DK/$8,400 FD) – I feel like KP is still too cheap on both sites because he’s rounding into form quickly. He went over 50 on both sites last game on the strength of a 27/13 line and has every chance to do that again tonight. KP is already 11th in paint touches per game and even though the Spurs are fourth in paint points allowed, they don’t have anyone to stop Zinger. Who’s guarding him? LaMarcus Aldridge? No chance. The Spurs are 26th in rebounds allowed in the paint, making this a great spot for a double-double. KP and Luka are already running pick and roll effectively, with KP averaging the seventh-most points per game as the roll man.

P.J. Washington ($6,800 DK/$6,800 FD) – I think he may get a lot of attention on FD, and it’s hard to argue that the way he’s been playing. He’s actually right next to Hayward in FPPM at 1.06 and has a usage over 21% himself. Washington has recorded three straight double-doubles and the Hornets and Bulls are tied in rebounds per game at 44.8, 13th in the NBA. With 5.3 paint touches per game and 13.7 rebounding chances per game, Washington checks the boxes in a fast paced shootout.

Isaiah Roby ($5,000 DK/$4,500 FD) – FD just refuses to raise the guys price, and he’s more than affordable on DK. With Al Horford off the floor, Roby has a 1.03 FPPM on the year to go with a usage rate about 19%. This is far from an easy spot against the Clippers but they are 15th in paint points allowed on the year. Roby averages 4.1 paint touches a game and they’ll need him with the size of Serge Ibaka and Ivaca Zubac.

Honorable Mention – Julius Randle, Damontas Sabonis, Bam Adebayo, Lauri Markkanen

Center

Nikola Jokic ($11,000 DK/$11,200 FD) – As I’m writing now, we don’t have the glaring value to get this high in salary and shouldn’t force it. However, if it opens up, consider Jokic. He’s one of (if not the) best bets for 50 DK on any given night. Deandre Ayton will get schooled by Big Honey, as most players do. The 1.65 FPPM and 28.9% usage is bonkers and he just put up 55 FD points in three quarters. Jokic is a safe investment every single night.

DeMarcus Cousins ($4,400 DK/$4,500 FD) – I won’t spend a lot of time on center today because this is the cash play at the position. The last time Wood missed a game, Boogie posted 40 DK points in just 23 minutes. I will say that the minutes are a small concern because he’s not going to go much past 25. It doesn’t matter in cash for two reasons. First, he’s still so cheap and averages a 1.29 FPPM with Wood and Wall off the floor. Second, everyone is going to play him. He’s uber chalk and will be in both Core’s unless something changes.

Honorable Mention – Joel Embiid, Clint Capela, Mason Plumlee

Thank you for reading and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!