Adam Strangis NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/20
We are finally back and rolling with a cash article since there is a whopping 10 game slate tonight! It’s the first night in a few nights (and we only have three tomorrow) that we’ve had a cash slate, so let’s make the best of it. There’s a ton of plays to talk about and spots to exploit in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/20 to find the green screens!
What We Look For In Cash Formats
- High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x.
- Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night.
- Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs prioritized.
- Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this up front – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why.
- Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.
Point Guard
Damian Lillard ($10,400 DK/$10,000 FD) – I won’t be dissuaded from playing Dame just because of a mediocre game last time out. He put up 50 DK while shooting just 3-10 from deep and he IS the Blazers right now. Without C.J. McCollum on the floor, Dame has a usage rate over 32% and there is plenty to love with him tonight and he has a safe 55 DK point floor with Portland in their current format.
Ja Morant ($7,300 DK/$7,900 FD) – I will have a healthy dose of Ja tonight and even though we’re early, Morant is a candidate for the Core. He’s simply not expensive enough for this spot. Morant is back from the ankle injury and played 34 minutes last game, so we’re good from that angle. Without Jonas Valanciunas on the floor (who is out), Morant has a 29.1% usage rate and a 43.1% assist rate. On top of all that, he gets a Blazers team that is 26th in real points given up. Lastly, he has an easy matchup in the paint. Morant is driving the third-most in the league and is the pick and roll ball handler at a top five rate. Good luck getting Enes Kanter to defend him tonight.
Chris Paul ($7,200 DK/$6,900 FD) – He’s about the most boring option you could have this season, and you won’t catch me playing him on DK. However, he’s under $7,000 on FD and does bring a certain amount of safety to the position. He’s not been below 30 FD points since the calendar flipped to 2021 and even though the ceiling isn’t over 38 in that time span, the salary is more than palatable. Houston playing at the 11th fastest pace certainly helps this play out as well, because the Suns are playing so slow this year.
Patrick Beverly ($4,900 DK/$4,600 FD) – This is not my favorite play on the slate, but it’s as low as I’d go on FD. He won’t be the last Clipper featured because they get the nuts matchup. Sacramento is playing at the ninth-fastest pace and are giving up the most points per night. Beverly only boasts a 14.3% usage rate as the big names dominate but the Kings also allow the highest three point percentage in basketball. Beverly is shooting 44% from deep and should get about 25-28 minutes tonight. I don’t think this is a spend down position as things stand. Morant is my favorite and then I’ll supplement with CP3 or maybe one other one, pending the rest of the lineups.
Honorable Mention – Steph, Trae Young, De’Aaron Fox, Goran Dragic (if Tyler Herro is out)
Shooting Guard
Paul George ($9,100 DK/$8,500 FD)– He might be shooting a 68.8% true shooting rate which won’t stick around but George looks awfully appealing on FD. He’s certainly in play on both sites but I expected him to be over $9,000 in his spot. On the year, his usage is 28.2% and the FPPM is 1.27. There’s not a soul on the Kings that can guard him (or anyone else) and PG13 just put up 31.8 FD points on just 29 minutes last time out against Sacramento.
Victor Oladipo ($7,800 DK/$7,900 FD) – I’m not sure the price came up fast enough for Dipo. In his first game, he played 32 minutes and sported a massive 42.1% usage rate. As Ghost pointed out, he’s on an expiring contract and it benefits both parties for him to get traded again. Showing him off just makes good sense. We did note that Phoenix is playing slow (28th) and is very good defensively (fifth-fewest points allowed). However, it just doesn’t matter as much when we get this level of involvement in the offense.
Terrance Ross ($6,100 DK/$5,300 FD) – Ross flies in the face of most of our normal rules about not liking shooters in cash, but there’s reasons for it. First, the Magic are still possibly short-handed with no Evan Fournier. Without him on the floor this season, Ross actually has a 26% usage rate. He’s still shot dependent, but the Wolves are going to offer chances. They run at the sixth-fastest pace and give up the fourth-most real points. Additionally, Minnesota is in the bottom 12 in three point percentage allowed. That’s enough to consider Ross in cash tonight with a preference on FD.
Fournier will be active tonight, which takes me off Ross as a cash option. That has no bearing on the other Magic we’re going to discuss.
Rodney Hood ($3,800 DK/$5,000 FD) – DK was so busy jacking up Kevin Huerter to $9,500 (seriously…what?) that they forgot about Rodney Hood. He took over in the stating lineup with McCollum out and racked up 28 DK points on 14 shots. That’s key, because McCollum is not only out but his 20 shots per game is missing too. Hood has an 18.5% usage rate and a 0.82 FPPM with CJ off the floor. Those metrics are more than enough at these prices, regardless of site.
Honorable Mention – D’Angelo Russell, Fred VanVleet, Huerter is FD viable if Cam Reddish remains out, Gary Trent (scares the heck out of me and he wasn’t even the first guy off the bench last game)
Small Forward
Jerami Grant ($7,700 DK/$8,400 FD) – Not only does Grant get the team that is running at the eighth-fastest pace, he’s under $8,000 on DK. That feels like a bargain anymore as Grant has been quite the signing for the Pistons (at least statistically). He has a 26.9% usage rate and a 1.14 FPPM so far. The FPPM isn’t anything mind-blowing but then you have to figure in he plays the ninth-most minutes in the association. Given that he doesn’t come off the floor, I’m very interested.
De’Andre Hunter ($6,200 DK/$5,800 FD) – Even if Reddish plays, Hunter is still going o see a ton of minutes tonight. Atlanta is still short on the wings and Hunter plays 32 minutes a game. He’s the definition of “minutes equal money” because he’s not doing anything wildly special. When you play this many minutes, the 0.91 FPPM is plenty good enough and the Pistons are in the bottom 190 in really points allowed. This could be an ugly shootout as neither team is very good.
Eric Gordon ($5,500 DK/$5,200 FD) – Gordon made his way back into the Houston lineup and played 33 minutes, which piques my interest. Dipo had all the usage when they were on the court together. At the same time, Gordon played 13 minutes without Dipo and had a 33.5% usage rate and a 1.51 FPPM. If the Rockets are viewing him as the main scorer when Dipo is on the bench, Gordon is still pretty cheap here with a total of 33 minutes. Obviously it’s a small sample size but it’s encouraging nonetheless.
Carmelo Anthony ($4,700 DK/$4,100 FD) – Melo is only a PF on DK, so just be aware of that. The attention will be on Rodney Hood I would expect, especially on DK. I don’t think Melo should be ignored with a 0.83 FPPM without McCollum. That sounds terrible but the 45.7% true shooting rate is not going to hold up. The usage is far more encouraging at 24.2%, the second-highest behind Dame on the team. That’s a bump of right about 4% and this game has shootout written all over it. I’m not buying the 221 O/U at this point and Melo is too cheap for 25-28 minutes tonight.
Honorable Mention – Kawhi Leonard, Jaylen Brown (more of a floor option so far without Tatum and Kemba is back), Marcus Morris (PF on FD)
Power Forward
Kristaps Porzingis ($7,900 DK/$7,500 FD) – I have to admit I am shocked that KP played 33 and 31 minutes in back to back nights the past two games. It’s not how I would have handled an injury-prone player, but here we are. If we don’t have to worry about minutes, Porzingis just feels extremely cheap. He’s only averaging 1.17 FPPM so far on a 50.8% true shooting rate but the 28.5% usage is higher than it was last season. The Pacers are only 28th in rebounds per game and Zinger is going to have to match Damontas Sabonis on the other side. He shouldn’t be under $8,000 ever if his minutes are not restricted.
Aaron Gordon ($7,400 DK/$7,000 FD) – It will be tough to not just play Porzingis in this range, but AG is coming off a monster game. He gets another phenomenal spot against the Wolves, for all the reason we talked about in the Ross blurb. Gordon’s minutes are back to being secure and it’s odd to see a 0.99 FPPM with a 24% usage rate. The true shooting of 47% with Fournier and Markelle Fultz off the floor is weird. He’s at a 51.5% rate on the season as a whole, so we should expect it to come back up. The Wolves are just average in rebounds per game and AG should have a clear path to a double-double.
LaMarcus Aldridge ($6,100 DK/$6,000 FD) – We have another LMA spot, and we were close to getting a smash game last time out. He put up 29.5 DK in just 24 minutes, which is actually impressive. Aldridge leads the league in frequency of being the roll man in pick and roll situations at 42.8%. He’s third in points per game, while the Warriors give up the third-most points per possession on that play type. Golden State is also just 21st in rebounds per game, so perhaps LMA can actually grab a few boards tonight. He scored over 20+ real points last time out, and I think he does it again tonight.
Xavier Tillman ($3,500 DK/$4,600 FD) – We have a new name in rookie Xavier Tillman, who has subbed for Jonas Valanciunas in the past couple games. He’s played 28 and 29 minutes the past couple games and now he gets a Blazers team that has very little defense (also read none) in the paint. Tillman has 5.5 paint touches per game in just eight games, and he should be getting a couple easy buckets off Ja drives. He’s especially cheap on DK and very, very affordable on FD.
Honorable Mention – Sabonis, Chris Boucher, Bam Adebayo, Jarred Vanderbilt, Marcus Morris
Center
Nikola Vucevic ($8,600 DK/$9,900 FD) – Oh my goodness what a mis-price on Vucevic by DK. I will be taking full advantage of it as Vucevic is in one of the best spots on the entire slate. With Fultz off the floor, Vucevic has a 29.0% usage rate and a 1.52 FPPM. There is zero resistance on the Minnesota side and with KAT sidelined, there’s not even someone who can hang with Vuc all over the court. I don’t think he’s a must play (although I love him) on FD, but DK I may start with Ja and Vucevic in cash builds.
Enes Kanter ($6,300 DK/$6,300 FD) – We’re sticking in the late game here because Kanter has logged 27 and 28 minutes since Jusuf Nurkic has gone down with injury. The first game he had five blocks and with Morant driving so much, he does have a couple extra chances for that tonight. Memphis does allow the 14th fewer paint points, but are 27th in rebounds in the paint. I’m not sure I’d go here on FD, but as a two center approach on DK I’d be happy to play that.
DeAndre Jordan ($5,500 DK/$4,800 FD) – I know Kyrie is back for the Nets but that doesn’t change the fact that Jordan is the only center on the roster. He’s going to have to deal with Andre Drummond and/or Jarrett Allen all game long. Cleveland has been good in the paint, ranking inside the top 12 in points and boards allowed in the paint. That’s all fine, but just look a the Milwaukee game. They are even better in the paint and Jordan still went for a double-double. Does Kyrie’s presence mean he’ll take less than six shots? I’m not sure on that and he still has some value left at the price.
Honorable Mention – Joel Embiid
DK Core –
FD Core –
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