NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/2

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/2

It was another fairly low-scoring night in the DFS world, with a lot of starts playing fine but unspectacular. Slates with 10 or more games can be difficult to narrow down the pool, but with just five on the docket for tonight life gets easier from that respect. We some really interesting spots on the board to night to sort through for NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/2!

What We Look For In Cash Formats 

1. High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x. 
2. Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night. 
3. Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs prioritized. 
4. Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this up front – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why. 
5. Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.

Point Guard

Trae Young ($10,200 DK/$9,700 FD) – These two teams have yet to tangle but Cleveland has been struggling holding guards in check. Neither Collin Sexton or Darius Garland have made strides as a defender so far and Young stands out. He’s a little pricey on DK but the FD price is much easier to get behind. Young still leads the Hawks in usage at 34.5% and FPPM at 1.57. I wonder is a sub-par game last night as a chalky option drops him tonight.

Malcolm Brogdon ($7,400 DK/$7,500 FD) – You can certainly play Kyle Lowry and be safe, but when Brogdon is cheaper on both sites I know who I’m going to prefer. He’s top 30 in assists in the league and he usage rate is over 24% on this team. The Pacers are concentrated around Brogdon and a few more players, plus the Knicks are bottom 10 in assists allowed to the point guard. With T.J. Warren out for an extended period, the whole core is gong to need to raise their game just a bit. Brogdon is already top 10 in touches per game.

Markelle Fultz ($6,200 DK/$5,800 FD) – Fultz was a dud last game, but who on the Magic wasn’t? He has a good chance to get back in the saddle tonight and he’s been playing about 30 minutes when the game demands it. No player on the Magic is higher than his 27.1% usage rate and his game has improved a bit. He’s talking more shots so far and he’s getting to the line a bit more, while shooting almost 94% from the stripe. With Orlando inside the top five in pace, this is a fair price for him.

Elfrid Payton ($6,100 DK/$5,000 FD) – I doubt I get to Elf on DK in cash games, but the Knicks are still missing Dennis Smith Jr. and Frank Ntilikina on Saturday. That should leave Elf at a safe 24 minutes with a ceiling for plenty more. We talked about it last time but I really like the fact Payton contributes everywhere, averaging almost four rebounds and over four assists per game. It’s not just about scoring with him and the 24% usage is second on the team behind Julius Randle.

Honorable Mention – LaMelo Ball (not my favorite cash play ever but the minutes are getting steadier and his past two games have looked much better)

Darius Garland on DK

Shooting Guard

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($7,900 DK/$8,200 FD) – SGA is only a point guard on DK, but I feel like he might pick up some popularity on FD. He does lead the Thunder in usage at 28.1% but the 1.00 FPPM isn’t that great at the current price tag. Even with the changes in the Thunder lineup, SGA is still just shooting the ball about 15 times per game and the true shooting is down a bit to 55.5%. The assists and rebounds have gone up this year, but he’s not really an $8,000 player. He does bring a bit of safety and plays 34 minutes night, if nothing else.

Fred VanVleet ($7,700 DK/$7,500 FD) – Another player who’s price is a little high, FVV has had some ups and downs in the four games so far. He’s had two games that he’s shot poorly and two that he shot about 50% from the field. I’m a little more willing to take chances on shooters like FVV since he can rack up the assist and rebounds decently for a guard. His assist rate of 31.3% trails only Lowry on the Raptors and the 1.11 FPPM is actually first.

Victor Oladipo ($6,700 DK/$7,200 FD) – With Warren out, the scoring burden now falls mostly onto two players. No disrespect to Brogdon who absolutely can, but Dipo and Damontas Sabonis are going to be called upon to carry the scoring more. To wit, Dipo has a 1.12 FPPM with Warren off the floor so far this year and he edges Brogdon in usage by 1%. He hit 35 DK las game while shooting 5-14 from the field, which tells you where the ceiling is.

Collin Sexton ($7,100 DK/$6,800 FD) – I’m always fairly hesitant to use a player like Sexton at this price because if the shot doesn’t work, it could spell issues. However, this is a huge pace up spot for the Cavs and Sexton is going to have a boatload of chances to put up a big score. He is second on the team with a 24.6% usage rate so far. Atlanta is fourth in pace and in the bottom five in real points allowed, the combo that we love. Sexton drives a little over 15 times a game and Atlanta is 25th in points in the paint allowed. I wouldn’t be surprised if Clint Capela isn’t off his minutes limit or sits outright here either, making the interior defense that much worse. Lastly, Sexton is third in minutes per game this year.

Seth Curry ($5,600 DK/$4,900 FD) – I’m not a big fan of suggesting role players who are sporting a ridiculous 72.2% true shooting rate because that can’t stick around. It just can’t. However, this is probably as low as you can go on FD without some value opening up through the day. When the game stays close, Curry is ticketed for about 32-24 minutes and has just under an 18% usage rate. His spacing and shooting will be needed in a major way for the Sixers all year, so the minutes are secure. The Hornets are second in three point frequency allowed at 45.1% which doesn’t hurt at all.

Honorable Mention – Devonte’ Graham

Small Forward

Larry Nance ($6,900 DK/$6,800 FD) – Nance continues to be power forward/center on DK but we can’t ignore him with Kevin Love still out. The Cavs are still thin with Isaac Okoro and Kevin Porter out as well. Nance is pricey for DK but could fit better on FD because he’s not a usage monster or big on the FPPM so far. The usage is under 13% which isn’t a shock with who he’s playing with. This is just minutes in a big pace up spot and they’ll need Nance to contend with the big boys up front. Atlanta is eighth in rebounds given up, but Nance can really flourish in this game style while racking up peripheral stats.

R.J. Barrett ($6,500 DK/$5,800 FD) – Another easier fit on FD, it kind of figures that Barrett shot 4-19 from the field the game that in contented how he’s improved. Even still, he hit 27 DK and grinned his way to 12 real points. That’s the kind of player I want in cash, because he didn’t utterly kill you while hitting four shots. The minutes are spiked as well, as he sits ninth in minutes per game. That’s really enough for me and the Nance/Barrett combo makes sense to spend up elsewhere.

Cam Reddish/Danilo Gallinari/De’Andre Hunter – This trio are all back to back to back in pricing, and we need to see who’s active. If Gallo is good to go and isn’t limited, he’s my favorite of the bunch. Gallo is also just PF on DK, making it a bit more of a challenge to play him but the price is silly on both sites for a starter of his caliber. The Hawks didn’t bring him in for no reason. Look for an update on this tomorrow, but the Hawks game is a prime target overall for me.

Honorable Mention – Brandon Ingram, Gordon Hayward, Tobias Harris are all fine options. I just think SF might be more of a spend down spot.

Power Forward

Domantas Sabonis ($9,400 DK/$9,400 FD) – On DK, it might come down to Sabonis or another player we’ve yet to talk about. I’m not sure the cash pathway exists for both as we stand. We’ve talked about Warren being out, which gooses Sabonis too. What I’m not sure I want to do is mess with Justin or Aaron Holiday. Neither played more than 24 minutes and the rest of the core is healthy. Sabonis leads the charge with a 1.47 FPPM and a 26.6% usage rate. He currently sits third in basketball with 11 paint touches per game and second in touches and that’s not going to go down. The Knicks are 26th in points and 20th in rebounds allowed in the paint. This is an elite spot for Sabonis and he’s a total lock on FD.

Julius Randle ($9,100 DK/$8,000 FD) – He’s too pricey for me on DK but FD hasn’t raised his price at all. Not only will it be all hands on deck to defend Sabonis, but Randle is leading the team in FPPM at 1.25. His assists have exploded to seven per game so far and he sits at a 2.8 mark for his career. We probably shouldn’t bank on that sticking around, but he’s got the ball in his hands a lot (fifth-most touches per game) and you don’t get that for $8,000. My only *slight* fear with these two beasts is the foul each other too much. Both are top 15 in attempts from the stripe right now.

John Collins ($7,500 DK/$7,000 FD) – Collins is coming out of the funk from the start of the year a bit, posting back to back solid efforts of at least 20 real points. The fouls will never stop being a concern, but he comes the cheapest on Sabonis, Randle, Pascal Siakam and Zion. That alone brings value to this slate. Dealing with the Cleveland big men isn’t going to be a fun challenge, making him not my preferred cash play but game log watchers might give him attention. He does have a 23.7% usage rate, which is easily second-best behind Trae Young. The 1.27 FPPM offsets some minutes concerns. I will note that Clint Capela played 30 on Friday while Collins played 25. That again leads me to suspect Capela is limited or sits, emphasizing the need for Collins.

Doug McDermott ($4,900 DK/$4,000 FD) – Dougie McBuckets is a punt option on this slate, as the scoring off the bench is more important now. I’m not paying nearly $5,000 for him on DK but on FD, he’s still cheap. He’s playing about 24 minutes a night and he’s been in double-figures in real points in four of five games. The true shooting is under 60% so I don’t think he’s doing anything too crazy from the floor right now. If anything, his 32% from three is way off his career 41%. He’s not the prototypical option, but on FD he’s viable.

Honorable Mention – Siakam, Zion

Center

Andre Drummond ($9,200 DK/$10,000 FD) – He’s cheap-ish on DK for what he’s produced so far and Drummond or Sabonis is a real question tonight if just playing one. I tend to give an ever so slight lean to Sabonis even on DK but I really want to play both in cash (if value allows). You can debate how valuable the skill set for Drum is in the real NBA all you want, for fantasy he’s incredible. With the pieces that Cleveland is missing, Drum has a 29.9% usage rate and a 1.76 FPPM. He leads the league in paint touches, rebounds, and is second in rebound chances. Atlanta is bottom 10 in real points allowed in the paint and this is a big pace up spot for Drum. My bold take is he goes Barbara Walters, which is a 20/20 game.

Nikola Vucevic ($8,700 DK/$8,400 FD) – I love Vuc as a GPP play and will be playing Drum over him wherever I can. However, there’s nothing wrong with playing Vuc in cash other than he won’t be popular. JoVal went 14/10 last night on just nine shots in 25 minutes, which Vucevic should play more than that. He’s playing 32-34 when the game is close to warrant playing time. His 1.40 FPPM is head and shoulders above anyone else on the team and this is an excellent spot with the Hornets being in the top 15 in pace. The Magic are fifth on their own.

Honorable Mention – Joel Embiid, Clint Capela (he’s looking like he’s active, just keep an eye on the minutes)

As you can see, center is pretty thin on FD. Don’t chase Steven Adams, as Zion was in foul trouble all game last time. Let’s see what value pops up through the day.

DK Core

Sabonis, Capela (unless minutes are restricted), Oladipo, LaMelo (DK Only)

I am willing to punt an Aaron Holiday on DK just to fit the Drummond/Sabonis combo

FD Core

Payton, Sabonis, Drummond, Sexton

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