Adam Strangis NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/15
We’re sure to get some havoc on an eight game slate, although it looks mostly calm as of this writing. Only a couple teams will be without star players that we know of, and the prime one is Jayson Tatum. That’s going to significantly effect the status of the Boston Celtics. We’ll get into that as we go and there’s plenty of paths for NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/15 to find the green tonight!
What We Look For In Cash Formats
- High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x.
- Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night.
- Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs prioritized.
- Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this up front – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why.
- Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.
Point Guard
*Note* Ja Morant is questionable. If he were to be full tilt (I doubt it), he would be awfully appealing on DK since he’s under $8,000.
Luka Doncic ($11,000 DK/$11,600 FD) – Luka is coming off a massive game and Dallas hasn’t seen their status change much. They are till missing multiple rotation pieces and Kristaps Porzingis is likely still right around 20-22 minutes. That’s not enough to worry me about the Luka play, provided we get the value to play him. So far, he has a 38.5% usage rate so far with a 1.60 FPPM. The Bucks are playing at the seventh-fastest pace in the league and that’s a big bump from 24th for the Mavericks.
Mike Conley ($6,900 DK/$6,900 FD) – Our old buddy makes it back into the article tonight, with a pace up spot against the 12th ranked Hawks. Joe Ingles remains out and that does help out the main Jazz players, Conley included. He has a 23.1% usage but a 1.20 FPPM which is very interesting. The assist rate of 36.1% is appealing as well and Trae Young continues to be a very under average defender. The DK price is a touch high but I can’t blame you on either site.
Jeff Teague ($4,400 DK/$4,500 FD) – It’s tough to get a handle on the Celtics right now. We know Tatum is out, and Jaylen Brown may or may not play. In either case, I’m looking towards Teague. In a 46 minute sample size, Teague has a 32.8% usage and a 1.17 FPPM with Tatum off the court. He should be plenty clear of the ankle injury that was bothering him before Boston was halted. I want to see the model to confirm, but he really stands out right now.
Damyean Dotson ($5,200 DK/$5,000 FD) – There’s not a ton to break down here as Dotson doesn’t look like anything special. He has a 20.5% usage rate with Collin Sexton and Darius Garland off the floor. However, he’s about the only guard on the roster tonight. Even Yogi Ferrell was waived, and Dotson is going to have to play heavy minutes tonight.
Honorable Mention – Jrue Holiday
Shooting Guard
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($7,700 DK/$8,200 FD) – SGA in a pace up spot against the second-worst defensive rating team in the association? Oh my, wheels up. SGA hit a speed bump last game but the Lakers aren’t on the other side tonight. Darius Bazley could be out tonight and if he is, SGA has a 33.4% usage real and a 1.39 FPPM on the year. Even if he’s not, these are the style of games we want to get after SGA in. He’s the clear alpha in the OKC offense and I really want to play him tonight in some way or another.
D’Angelo Russell ($8,300 DK/$7,500 FD) – I’m leery on DK but the FD price still works out quite nicely. It may seem like an odd pick with Karl Anthony-Towns back in full swing, but over an 90 minute sample with KAT on the court Russell leads the team in usage at 30.6%. The FPPM is only 1.07 which looks like I’m nuts for targeting. However, the true shooting is 47.9% over that sample size. For his career, D-Lo is at 52.6% and Minnesota’s lack of defense keeps every game as a shootout potential.
Jordan Clarkson ($6,100 DK/$5,200 FD) – With Ingles out, Clarkson takes on a bigger role and is the unquestioned sixth man. The price is too high on DK for me, as I’d rather just play Conley and the security of the minutes. No player on the team has higher than a 1.33 FPPM with Ingles off the floor and FD just simply hasn’t reacted fast enough. Since we need two on that site, Clarkson is one of the most appealing options of the night at the position and should be heavy chalk in cash.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($4,400 DK/$5,500 FD) – Lonzo Ball is out and Eric Bledsoe is still questionable. Even though Zion Williamson is back, that actually could help NAW in this spot. The defensive awareness of the Lakers will be focused on Brandon Ingram and Zion. That leaves NAW with a little bit less to deal with and he has been massive with the two members off the court. Over a 51 minute sample, NAW has a 34.7% usage rate and a 1.44 FPPM. That’s skewed by the MONSTER game he just had, but the price is not high enough. I would have to assume the field would go right back to him given the chance.
Honorable Mention – Paul George, Tyrese Haliburton, Cam Reddish
Small Forward
*Note* – If Jaylen Brown is active, he’s lock for me. So far this season, he has a 32.1% usage and 1.27 FPPM to lead the team with Tatum off the court. On DK, he would likely be my shooting guard of choice.
Kawhi Leonard ($9,600 DK/$9,600 FD) – This position looks rough right now, at least on the low end. It’s always subject to change, but this could be the spot to pay up with Brown and Kawhi. He’s playing 38 minutes a night typically and the Kings have the worst defensive rating in the league, the most real points given up and the eighth-fastest pace. That sounds an awful lot like a game that Kawhi can excel in to a massive extent. He’s had a floor of 50 more nights than not and even with Paul George playing, there’s room for both tonight.
Khris Middleton ($8,200 DK/$7,400 FD) – I’m fairly certain that this is the first time Middleton has made the article, past when Giannis sat late. Even with Giannis on the floor, Middleton is second fiddle in the offense and is sporting a 1.27 FPPM this year. He’s shooting over 47% from beyond the arc and Dallas sits 10th in frequency of three point attempts allowed. Middleton is a sharpshooter with 15 attempts a night and a fair salary.
Otto Porter ($5,800 DK/$5,500 FD) – Porter is a nice value on both sites and has a very solid role in the Bulls offense. The duo of Zach LaVine and Coby White get more attention, but Porter has a 1.11 FPPM which is second on the team. He’s third in usage rate at 20.7% and OKC is just average in rebounding. I think Porter has a solid shot to get more than his six boards he averages and the Thunder are 14th in pace. Porter in an up-tempo game at a reasonable price works for me.
Honorable Mention – R.J. Barrett, De’Andre Hunter
Power Forward
Julius Randle ($9,100 DK/$9,100 FD) – Another day, and Randle writeup. Part of the reason is he’s almost always popular on FD, and I think that’s probably the case tonight. For some reason, the Cavs are 23rd in rebounding this year even with Andre Drummond. I have no idea how they attempt to play Drummond and Jarrett Allen tonight, so I’m not likely going there. Randle should have a big game regardless. He’s sixth in touches per game and seventh in post ups per game. It just so happens that the Cavaliers give up thee third-most points from post ups in the league.
Aaron Gordon ($7,300 DK/$6,500 FD) – It seems to be a pattern tonight but the FD price is better than the DK price. With the Magic still down a couple players, Gordon has a 1.13 FPPM but he’s got the biggest factor in his corner tonight – minutes. He’s played 35 in each of the past two games and it will NOT hurt him that Tatum is out on the other side. The 25% usage rate without Markelle Fultz on the floor is second behind only Nikola Vucevic and the minutes give us some safety.
James Johnson ($4,600 DK/$4,200 FD) – Johnson played another 25 minutes last time out and racked up 31 FD, largely on the back of five total blocks and steals. He is a better play on that site since his usage is barely 16% and the FPPM is 1.16. Those typically don’t sync up but the pricing on FD is very appealing. Shockingly, we have a few cheap options tonight at the position which is rare.
Honorable Mention – Tristan Thompson (they need someone to help with Vuc and Boston is short), Isaiah Roby (If Bazley is out)
Center
Karl Anthony-Towns ($9,900 DK/$10,800 FD) – We finally have a better price on DK, because KAT should never be under $10,000 on that site. He’s averaging 1.54 FPPM so far in his limited action and the 27% usage rate is nothing to sneer at. We just saw this matchup and Towns went for over 50 DK on just 17 shots. As he gets more comfortable, I think we see him get back to the player we know and I’m happy to take the discount. Memphis is ninth in rebounds so KAT will be needed on that end as well as his offensive output.
Nikola Vucevic ($9,000 DK/$9,400 FD) – If you can’t get to KAT, Vuc is a very appealing option a bit lower in price. With the Celtics still down big men and possibly being down to Tristan Thompson and Daniel Theis, who in the world is going to guard Vucevic? He’s taken on even more usage with Fultz out of the lineup at 32.5% and the FPPM is 1.54. Those are some big time numbers and Boston doesn’t appear to have the capability to guard him this evening.
Mitchell Robinson ($6,300 DK/$6,000 FD) – If we look at just in the paint stats, Cleveland doesn’t look like the best matchup for Mitchell. There’s a couple factors here. First, Robinson has been getting a ton of minutes the past couple games with 33 in each. He’s cleared a double-double in each and with Drummond and Allen on the other side, New York is going to need the size. As Brian has brought up, I think girth for girth is the saying here. I’m loving the minutes and the chances at another double-double tonight.
Honorable Mention – Rudy Gobert, Jonas Valanciunas
DK Core –
FD Core –
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