Adam Strangis NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/13
Even with games already wiped off the schedule with Covid, we still have a solid eight games tonight. There’s a couple teams on back to backs that will need watching through the day because the chaos will surely come. We have a lot to get to so let’s not waste time and talk about NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/13 to find the green!
What We Look For In Cash Formats
- High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x.
- Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night.
- Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs prioritized.
- Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this up front – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why.
- Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.
Point Guard
Damian Lillard ($9,500 DK/$9,200 FD) – It’s a bit odd to see Dame scoring under 40 DK points in the past two games, but he’s also that many games removed from hitting almost 70. The Kings and Blazers are top 10 in pace, just like they were a few days ago and I’ll bet that Lillard doesn’t shoot 5-16 from the field like last game against the Kings. Dame Dolla has retained a 30.5% usage rate and a 1.34 FPPM and averages over 26 real points a game. He’s too cheap.
De’Aaron Fox ($7,400 DK/$7,300 FD) – We don’t have to go far to find our next candidate, as Fox stands out here as well. He’s fairly cheap for a player of his capabilities in a high pace game and he leads the team in usage. Fox is at a 28.5% rate and a 1.11 FPPM with a true shooting under 53%. Fox is inside the top 12 in drives per game, and that would be a lot easier to get to the hoop if Enes Kanter is starting.
Elf Payton ($6,600 DK/$5,700 FD) – Elf continues to be under $6,000 on FD and I will continue to play him in cash all the time. He gets Brooklyn on a back to back tonight, and they don’t play defense on a good day. The Nets are 22nd in points allowed and fourth in pace, the perfect mix for a player like Elf. He fills up the stat sheet and has the second-highest usage on the team at 24.6% and a 0.94 FPPM.
Trey Burke ($4,900 DK/$4,500 FD) – The Mavericks were PPD in their last game but the situation hasn’t really changed. They are still down Josh Richardson, Dorian Finney-Smith, Maxi Kleber and Jalen Brunson. Kristaps Porzingis will play, but almost will certainly not play more than 15 minutes. Burke played just about 20 minutes last game and is still cheap enough to consider just for how thin the Mavericks are.
Honorable Mention – LaMelo Ball, Tyus Jones, Dennis Schroder (keep an eye on the Lakers on a B2B)
*Update* Nickeil Alexander-Walker is projected (not officially) as the starter for Lonzo, and I will be smashing the button next to his name if he’s starting at $3,100 on DK
Shooting Guard
Tim Hardaway ($6,900 DK/$6,800 FD) – On FD, this looks like a spot to possibly avoid the high end in salary. I can’t stomach over $9,000 for C.J. McCollum and Paul George is fair, but not a priority. THJ checks in as a solid option more on FD than DK because of pricing, and last time out Hardaway played 40 minutes. It’s possible that goes to about 35 tonight, but with so many players missing he’s still going to shoot the ball a ton (close to the 20 times he did last game).
Dillon Brooks ($6,600 DK/ $6,300 FD) – Brooks has been the usage leader in the absence of Ja Morant, sitting at 30% on the season. Despite his 48.6% true shooting rate, that doesn’t stop Brooks from hoisting about 17 shots per game, 32nd in the league. Now he gets a spot where the Wolves are eighth in pace and 27th in points allowed. If we’re trying to get a spot right for Brooks to be safe, this checks the boxes.
Eric Bledsoe ($5,800 DK/$5,300 FD) – Bledsoe does not normally make this article but Lonzo Ball has already been ruled out for this game. With Lonzo off the floor, Bledsoe is at a 1.12 FPPM and his usage kicks up 5.1% to over 23% total. He should likely see a couple more minutes than the 29 he’s averaging on the season as well.
*Update* Bledsoe is questionable
Cam Reddish ($5,000 DK/$4,500 FD) – I think the blowout was the main reason Reddish didn’t play 30 minutes last game. The Hawks are still short-handed with no Danilo Gallinari, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Kris Dunn and possibly Rajon Rondo. Even if Rondo plays, that shouldn’t bite into Reddish too badly. Reddish is only at a 49.5% true shooting rate with these players off the court, but he does have a respectable 19.5% usage and a 0.79 FPPM.
Honorable Mention – PG13, SGA, Derrick Rose, Tyrese Haliburton
Small Forward
Kawhi Leonard ($9,700 DK/$9,200 FD) – This is more on FD because when is Kawhi ever this cheap? We typically steer clear when George and Kawhi are both active but this is still the Klaw who has a 29.6% usage and 1.30 FPPM on the season. The pace matchup is not what we look for as the Pelicans are 25th in pace, but there’s also nobody on the other side who’s going to defend him all that well. Brandon Ingram will try, but with limited success I’m betting.
Gordon Hayward ($7,800 DK/$7,800 FD) – Every once in a while, Hayward stumbles but he’s the leading scorer on the Hornets. That alone has to catch our eye now that he’s back under $8,000 on both sites. Hayward also leads the team in usage and is the only one who is over a 25% usage. I’d likely make the effort to go up to Kawhi but if you can’t find that extra $1,200 Hayward is a safer option in this range.
R.J. Barrett ($7,100 DK/$6,300 FD) – He’s way too cheap on FD and we will be talking about 3 Knicks in this spot. Barrett leads the league in minutes and is right near Brooks in shots per game. This is a big time pace up spot for him so even if the shot is questionable, he’ll have to find some production. His true shooting is 4.5% lower than it was in his rookie year and as a 20-year old, you have to expect some speed bumps.The minus are the real difference maker and I don’t think you’re wrong to play two of the three main Knicks tonight.
Honorable Mention – LeBron James, Harrison Barnes
Power Forward
Julius Randle ($9,100 DK/$9,100 FD) – I’m likely going to decide between Randle and one of Elf or Barrett tonight, because Randle is in a smash spot coming off a poor outing. He’s just off to a monster start with a 27.5% usage rate and a 1.26 FPPM. Randle is in the top 10 in rebounds per game and they’ll need that with the Nets being inside the top 10 as a team. The 1.26 FPPM should show right back up again in this game.
Brandon Clarke ($5,800 DK/$6,300 FD) – He just always seems to fit on FD and that may be the case tonight. Anthony Davis is marked as questionable after last night, and may actually miss the game. There’s going to be very few safe options at this position and Clarke is that. He has a 21% usage rate and a 0.87 FPPM. He’s close to averaging a steal and a block per game, which helps out a lot on FD. He’s a boring option but boring can work for cash.
Robert Covington ($5,000 DK/$4,800 FD) – RoCo has only scored double digit real points once this year, but he typically still scores over 20 FD on a nightly basis. Covington is strictly a three-and-D wing at this stage and with this team, but the pace of this game keeps him involved enough to consider. This would be mostly a FD play.
James Johnson ($3,900 DK/$4,200 FD) – Johnson pretty much rounds out or Dallas value plays, and I want reinforcement from the model to be sure. The Mavericks welcome back Porzingis but I think we should still see about 20-22 minutes from Johnson tonight. If Porzingis doesn’t have a big restriction, we need to back off this play. We’re only talking a 34 minute sample, but the 1.32 FPPM when all the Dallas players are off the floor is intriguing at this salary on either site.
Honorable Mention – Giannis, P.J. Washington, Zion, John Collins
Center
Karl Anthony-Towns ($9,800 DK/$10,500 FD) – He may well turn into a building block for me on DK, where he should almost never be under $10,000. KAT hasn’t played a whole lot this season but the 26.8% usage and a 1.57 FPPM speaks for itself, and he’s too cheap. Memphis is 10th in rebounds per game but KAT sits at fifth per game in boards and has over 70 touches per game. He should be able to have his way down low or wherever he’d like tonight. KAT is really the only pay-up at center on this slate.
Richaun Holmes ($6,400 DK/$6,400 FD) – With Marvin Bagley being invisible this year, Holmes has a bit more safety than normal. You’re not going to get the 50 FD last game since he’s not going to block six shots, but this is still a good spot. Portland has defended the paint well with just the fifth-fewest points allowed in that range, but Holmes will need to be on the floor a good bit with the Nurkic/Kanter combo on the other side. Holmes has a very solid 1.07 FPPM.
Enes Kanter ($4,800 DK/$5,300 FD) – IF and ONLY IF Jusuf Nurkic is out, Kanter would likely draw the start and be guaranteed 22-24 minutes. He’s already at 19 a night and someone would need to replace the Nurkic minutes. With him off the floor, Kanter has a 1.30 FPPM so far and the Kings are 17th in points and rebounds allowed in the paint. Kanter already average 6.6 paint touches a game, a number certain to go up if he’s starting.
*Update* Al Horford is out for the Thunder, and Isaiah Roby is likely to draw the start. The last time he did this, he played 28 minutes and scored almost 34 DK points. He’s an excellent value on both sites.
Honorable Mention – Jarrett Allen, Mitchell Robinson (you could run Randle and Robinson to attack the Nets in the paint), Mason Plumlee
DK CORE – DeAndre Jordan, KAT, KD, Joe Harris
FD CORE – Jordan, KD, Harris, Lillard
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