NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/12

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/12

This slate is kind of weird right off the bat. On FanDuel, it’s only a five game slate as they elected to leave off the Heat at Sixers game. They may be onto something, because I would be surprised if that game got played. The Sixers are still crippled and running NBA 2K players, and the Heat have five players that aren’t on the injury report right now. We’re skipping that game for now, but will add it to NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/12 if it plays because those rotations will be very appealing.

*NOTE* The Miami Heat are playing, and only have eight players. We’re going to have quite a few in the core for DK, as they are the highest projected ownerships on the slate.

What We Look For In Cash Formats 

1. High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x. 
2. Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night. 
3. Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs prioritized. 
4. Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this up front – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why. 
5. Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.

Point Guard

Malcolm Brogdon ($8,600 DK/$8,400 FD) – We’ll get official word during the day, but the Pacers already have Victor Oladipo listed as questionable on this back to back. That leaves Brogdon and Damontas Sabonis (more later on him) in utter smash spots. The Warriors continue to play at the second-fastest pace and are in the bottom five in real points allowed. With Dipo off the floor, Brogdon is at a 1.44 FPPM in a 42 minute sample. Can we say late night hammer?

Dejounte Murray ($7,200 DK/$7,500 FD) – He looks expensive given what he did just last game, but Murray is still a prime cash target. DeMar DeRozan remains out tonight, and with that scenario Murray typically shines. He has a 28.2% usage rate and a 1.21 FPPM even with a 48.6% true shooting rate. Both the Spurs and the Thunder are in the top 15 in pace, and I don’t think Murray goes 5-15 from the field again. I don’t want to turn my back on a talented player at 36 minutes just because of one poor game.

Patty Mills ($5,100 DK/$4,300 FD) – The price is really climbing on DK, but on FD this might be as low as you can go. He played 30 minutes himself last game, and chucked 13 three pointers. He may have only hit three, but the nuclear potential was there and with Derrick White still out, the Spurs may continue to lean on Mills. He has a usage rate over 22% with DDR and White off the floor, which is perfectly fine on both sites.

Honorable Mention – Steph Curry, Jamal Murray (mostly DK since he’s $6,900)

Shooting Guard

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($8,000 DK/$8,500 FD) – Still only $8,000 on DK, SGA hasn’t moved in price despite three straight games of 50+ DK points. The great sing is he’s starting to find the secondary stats to go along with scoring. He’s had at least five dimes and boards in the last three games, and he needs to continue that to justify this price tag. The spot with the Spurs is a pace up spot and the production is starting to follow the 27.6% usage rate.

Lonnie Walker ($5,400 DK/$5,200 FD) – It’s going to be interesting to see where the projected ownership here is. Walker was the lead scorer in the least game, and his price is right next to Mills. On FD, I expect pretty heavy chalkiness since the SG position can be a little thin. Walker surprisingly only has a 60 minute sample when DDR and White are off the floor this season, but the 30.1% usage is eye-opening. It can be a little scary playing these scoring guys in cash, but on FD alone he likely is a need to roster play in a fast-paced game.

Honorable Mention – Damyean Dotson will be a very enticing target if Collin Sexton remains out. Past that, let’s see how the day unfolds and update this position when we have a clearer picture.

Small Forward

Kevin Durant ($9,400 DK/$10,100 FD) – KD is probably on a burner Twitter account right now, bashing DK for their disrespectful price tag. He almost hit 60 DK last game in a whopping 38 minutes, so the Achilles is a non-issue. Kyrie Irving remains out and I honestly hope he’s alright at this point. It’s easy for Kyrie to be the butt of jokes, but mental health isn’t and hopefully this turns out to not be a serious issue.

Anyways, for tonight KD is my number one play on the board and there’s not much of a scenario that he won’t be. Durant is number one in the league in points per possession on post ups. Not only is Denver the ninth-worst in that category, Durant will not be guarded by Dusty Paul Millsap. KD is at a 36.7% usage and 1.61 FPPM without Kyrie and Spencer Dinwiddie on the floor.

Justin Holiday ($5,000 DK/$4,500 FD) – He’s not exactly big salary relief on DK, but he has been Steady Eddie in the past few games as he’s never dipped under 22 DK the past four. With the Pacers in their current state, Holiday has the most minutes and a 0.95 FPPM. The usage is always going to stink for him but you’re hoping the pace of this game pays off.

Joe Harris ($5,400 DK/$4,900 FD) – Harris over the last three games has been volatile but we’re after the minutes. He’s played at least 28 in each game, and last game saw him shoot just 4-12 from the floor. He’s only at a 0.86 FPPM with the Nets as is tonight, and that’s not spectacular. Denver is ninth-worst in three point field goal percentage given up, so this is the right style of spot to target a 30 minute Harris with three point upside.

Honorable Mention – Kelly Oubre, Will Barton

Power Forward

Damontas Sabonis ($9,300 DK/$9,200 FD) – We talked yesterday about how the paint touches and touches in general are through the roof for Sabonis. The Warriors are bottom 10 in rebounds per game, and also sit 28th in points and rebounds allowed in the paint. Taking Dipo off the floor has been a boon for Sabonis as he’s at a 1.56 FPPM and a 32.4% usage rate. Wheels up.

LaMarcus Aldridge ($6,300 DK/$7,200 FD) – My early lean is LMA/Walker on DK, then Murray/Walker on FD because Aldridge is a little pricey on FD. Still, the injury concerns are behind him with 31, 32 and 36 minutes in the last three games. Aldridge is right with Walker at a 29.9% usage rate but LMA is only at a 41.5% true shooting. The veteran for the Spurs is in the top 20 in points per possession on post ups on the season, 1.00. The Thunder give up the sixth-most points per possession on that play type, and Aldridge is back at PF eligibility on DK as well.

Draymond Green ($5,600 DK/$5,700 FD) – Dray continues to get back towards his minutes trending towards where we need them to. He’s hanging around 30-32 and just missed a triple-double last game. Sure, he’s not likely (i.e. ever) going to drop a 25 point triple-double but the Pacers are ranked lower in rebounds per game than the Warriors. Anytime Dray is under $6,000, I have some interest but it might mostly be on FD since I need two.

Honorable Mention – Anthony Davis (just doesn’t seem like the Lakers guys really push themselves right now), Trey Lyles

Center

Nikola Jokic ($11,000 DK/$11,400 FD) – He really seems like a luxury spend right now, but I will have some lineups with him. I think he’s more GPP than anything because I have other priorities but the Joker is one of the safest best on a nightly basis. The issue is he has zero ceiling left and I mean zero. He leads the team in usage at 29% and the FPPM is spiked at 1.60. I just doubt we can fit him without making too many sacrifices.

Al Horford ($5,900 DK/$5,800 FD) – Horford was chalky last slate on FD and I think that is in the range of outcomes once again. Do I want to play Horford? Not exactly, but there’s not a plethora of options. Horford is second on the team in usage among starters at 20.4% and sits at a 0.99 FPPM. The Spurs are 29th in rebounds in the paint and this is mostly “let’s eat the chalk and play others we want to play” options.

Honorable Mention – Both Andre Drummond (now questionable, trending towards maybe out) and Rudy Gobert check in as safe options if you can’t get to Jokic and don’t want Horford. Both of these centers are in the top three in paint touches per game and rebounding chances per game. They are also top eight in points in the paint, so they’re going to square off all night long. On DK, Meyers Leonard and maybe Precious Achiuwa could be an option if the Heat play but we’ll need to see.

DK Core

Tyler Herro, Kelly Olynyk, Precious Achiuwa, Kevin Durant

With all the value, we’re going to need another stud and right now that looks like Sabonis.

FD Core

Malcolm Brogdon, Damontas Sabonis, Trey Lyles, Justin Holiday

It sets up differently on FD, where the Pacers duo takes center stage. Lyles is a punt at PF and Holiday fits in at SF to afford other stud plays like SGA, Durant or Jokic.

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