NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/11

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/11

Yesterday was a madhouse with a game getting postponed, players out everywhere and a lot of value to sort through. Hopefully this eight game slate is a bit more normal, at least as far as NBA goes. Let’s all hope for a more straightforward day and get the base set for NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/11!

What We Look For In Cash Formats 

1. High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x. 
2. Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night. 
3. Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs prioritized. 
4. Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this up front – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why. 
5. Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.

Point Guard

Trae Young ($9,400 DK/$8,800 FD) – He’s been a massive floor play the past two games (hence under $9,000 on FD, which hasn’t happened in forever) but this is a good spot to breakout. Ben Simmons has already been ruled out, depriving the Sixers of their best defender on Young. Atlanta is playing slower this year at 14th in pace but the Sixers are fifth in pace thus far. At least eight players who should be in the rotation for these teams are out, having this game as a prime target with condensed minutes. Young has a 31.3% usage rate and a 1.13 FPPM with the Hawks in their current roster state. That comes with a ridiculously low 48.2% true shooting. Put the blinders on for his last couple games and play him.

Malcolm Brogdon ($8,300 DK/$8,400 FD) – If you can’t stomach Trae and don’t want to spend on Damian Lillard at the high end, Brogdon is the next man up. The Win Daily family are big proponents of Damontas Sabonis but Brogdon has flourished as well without T.J. Warren. The Brogdon/Sabonis duo are second and fourth in minutes per night, which we love. The Pacers point guard is 15th in drives per game, and Sacramento is 26th in points to the point guard and 15th in points in the paint. The Kings are also top eight in pace, making this a big pace up spot for the 20th ranked Pacers. Brogdon should thrive in this game environment in a big way.

Trey Burke ($4,500 DK/$4,500 FD) – Kristaps Porzingis might make his season debut but I’m not sure I care for Burke. Josh Richardson, Dorian Finney-Smith and Jalen Brunson all remain out for the Mavs tonight and that means Burke could go nuts again. I’m never a huge fan of chasing the outliers, and 11-13 with a 7-8 from three qualifies. However, Burke still played 21 minutes and should still provide a solid 25 DK since Dallas still needs shooting off the bench. Burke is still too cheap for his role tonight, with or without Zinger. He won’t jump in from a one injury and play 30-32 minutes the first game back.

Raul Neto/Ish Smith ($4,600/$4,400 on DK/$4,200/$4,300 on FD) – So both these players are here because I think this is interesting – Smith played 28 minutes last game to Neto’s 21. I don’t always care who starts, it’s who’s going to be on the floor more. This could be a good spot where Neto is the comfortable choice but Ish is the better play. Without Westbrook on the floor, they are in a dead heat at about a 0.97 FPPM. That’s with Smith having just a 15.5% usage and a 40.3% true shooting rate to a 59% true shooting from Neto. Phoenix is playing slow but there’s too much opportunity here.

Honorable Mention – Dame, Elf Payton. I’m afraid of LaMelo’s price for just 30 minutes. One of these games he’s not going to pay off and now we’re talking $7,000. That’s a lot of salary to tie up to a player that recorded a triple-double and still only earned 31 minutes.

Shooting Guard

Bradley Beal ($9,900 DK/$10,100 FD) – We were all ready to put Beal into our lineups last game, but health protocols ruled him out late. Look, he’s expensive and the pace/defensive matchup stinks. Beal still has a 38.8% usage rate and a 1.60 FPPM with Beal off the court, so he should be expensive. Beal leads the league in FGA and two-point makes so far, and that’s with Westbrook playing most of the season. On top of that, he’s ninth in minutes per game. You just don’t pass up this many chances to put fantasy points on the board.

Devin Booker ($7,900 DK/$7,600 FD) – This might be more along the lines of a GPP play, but I think this is about as safe a spot for Booker as we can have with the Suns fully healthy in the backcourt. The Wizards continue to run at the fastest pace in the league and give up the most points, making it a prime spot for Booker. It’s kind of wild to see him have a 29.1% usage rate and only a 0.98 FPPM. I mean, his usage is 9% higher than Chris Paul but CP3 is at a 1.07 FPPM. Booker literally leads the league in raw minutes player, and is 12th in per game. He’s attempting two fewer field goals per game and two fewer free throws per game. The pace should make up for those factors tonight.

Tyrese Maxey ($4,700 DK/$5,200 FD) – I was going to talk about Tyrese Haliburton, who’s a good play in a vacuum. However, I think the chalk should very much fall on Maxey. Joel Embiid is probable, but the Sixers are without Shake Milton, Seth Curry, Tobias Harris and Simmons. That equals to about 45 field goal attempts per game that are missing. FORTY. FIVE. Maxey filled the bucket last game out with 39 real points and played 44 minutes. Even though that came without Biid, he’s too cheap and there’s far too much offense missing for Philly to pass him up. I think the FD approach is Beal, Maxey and move on. He’s locked up on DK for me as well, pending any weird news.

Honorable Mention – Dillon Brooks, Collin Sexton (if active)

Small Forward

Brandon Ingram ($8,600 DK/$8,800 FD) – He likely wouldn’t be a high priority for me, but Ingram is becoming safer and safer this year. Why is that the case when he’s taking almost the exact same amount of shots? It’s easy to find, because Ingram is taking two more free throws per game and added roughly two more rebounds and two more assists per contest. That might not seem like much, but that’s about 8 fantasy points a night tacked on. Both teams are just 24th or lower in pace, but Ingram is playing about 35 minutes a night and continues to add to his game. He’s more of a luxury spend as we sit.

Tim Hardaway Jr. ($6,700 DK/$5,800 FD)- I’m not truly a fan of the DK price but the FD price is just egregious. The Mavericks are in a carbon copy of last game where THJ played 40 minutes, scored 36 real points (told you THJ is here to get buckets) and he took 20 shots. He’s carrying about a 28% usage rate without the Mavericks players on the floor in a 50 minute sample size the year. I can’t find much of a reason for anything to change tonight, even if Porzingis plays a little bit. There’s little reason to not just plug and play on FD.

Danny Green ($4,700 DK/$4,800 FD) – I told you we’d be back to Philly, as Green is in a great spot as well. He played 36 minutes on Saturday, and that’s interesting enough at this price range. Now take into account that he had a 23.2% usage and shot just 4-17 and put up 27 DK points. Sure, Embiid is going to suck up some of that usage but he’s not going to take everything. There’s just too many shots and minutes for Philly open to look past Green as a strong option.

Cam Reddish ($5,100 DK/$4,500 FD) – We might be able to buy low on Reddish, as he come off the bench and played 34 minutes last game. That was when Bogdan Bogdanovic suffered his knee injury, so Reddish should remain as a heavy minutes player. The shot is not impressive so far this season at just 34.7% from the field and 29.2% from three. That doesn’t always stop Reddish from shooting, as he attempted 13 triples last game. In a pace up spot for 30+ minutes, we could do worse than this play.

Honorable Mention – Gordon Hayward, RJ Barrett, maybe Rui Hachimura but I would just play Green likely

Power Forward

Damontas Sabonis ($9,300 DK/$9,200 FD) – Pace up spot for the talented big man? Check. Nobody to really guard him in the paint? Check. Sitting sixth in paint touches, second in overall touches and first in rebounding chances per game? Check, check and check. Sabonis is everything we could want in cash, and I give him a lean over Giannis and Julius Randle on FanDuel.

I absolutely love him in this spot and will have the Brogdon/Sabonis pairing in GPP if nothing else. Brogdon is a pick and roll ball handler 43.7% of the time and Sabonis is seventh in attempts as the pick and roll man. He’s only shooting 37% on those attempts, but the Kings are eighth in points per possession defending that play type. Give me this Pacers pair in GPP, cash and wherever else.

John Collins ($7,400 DK/$7,200 FD) – This is definitely a spot where I think having Collins and Clint Capela is going to be a problem for the opposition. Losing Harris and Simmons hurts the defense a lot, and Embiid is going to have to fight for boards and in the paint with both these guys. Collins can foul a lot, but I think that factor is mitigated a small bit with Capela. Now, the price is still high and he’s not a primary target. But he’s playing 30-ish minutes a game and has recorded two straight double-doubles. He’s got a chance to do it again in this pace up spot and his 1.04 FPPM is solid, if not spectacular.

Aaron Gordon ($6,600 DK/$6,600 FD) – Don’t confuse this with it being a good matchup. The Bucks do push the pace at sixth-fastest, but they are also fifth in rebounding per game. What you’re hoping for here is two-fold. One, Gordon needs to play the 35 minutes he did against Dallas. That was great to finally see, and Gordon has a 0.98 FPPM on a 25.6% usage with just a 47.6% true shooting rate so far. Secondly, getting hot from deep would be super useful. He’s only at 31.6% but does have a recent game with six made three’s. Milwaukee allows over 40% of field goal attempts against them from three. Gordon should thrive here with another 32-35 minutes.

James Johnson ($4,100 DK/$4,200 FD) – I’m going to let the model check me on this one, but Johnson stands out as a value at first glance. He only has a 36 minute sample size with the Mavericks in their current state, but the 1.25 FPPM is nothing to sneer at, nor is the 18.5% usage. The fact he comes off the bench should mean he can get some the without Zion Williamson on the court, which could derail him otherwise. Let’s see what tomorrow brings, but he’s on my radar.

Honorable Mention – Zion, Cedi Osman (don’t hate me for it), PJ Washington

Center

Joel Embiid ($9,800 DK/$9,700 FD) – If we’re into all the Philly value, it has to stand that Embiid makes too much sense as the last man standing. It’s a pace up spot and there’s three of the four other starters missing. There’s only a three minute sample size with those three off and Biid on, where he had a 38% usage rate and a 1.82 FPPM.

Now I’m not sitting here saying we should just expect that to extrapolate out, but come on. How is his usage and FPPM not going to be through the roof here? There’s no reason he shouldn’t take 20+ shots. When we take Simmons and Tobias off last season, Biid is at a 1.64 FPPM. He’s under $10,000. Biid needs to be the priority on FD especially in my eyes. I’m really only going to talk about one other center, then put a couple in honorable mention because Biid is that important to cash builds.

Mo Wagner ($3,600 DK/$4,000 FD) – He’s really a cash option on DK only, since we can play him and Embiid together. It’s a real bummer that Thomas Bryant tore his ACL, but that leaves Robin Lopez and Wagner to soak up the center minutes. For those of you that don’t know, Wagner is a 23-year old in his third year and can actually shoot. His true shooting over his limited career is over 60%. Last season (not the best comparison), he had a 0.99 FPPM when Bryant was off the floor over 800 minutes. This season is only about 45 minutes, but the FPPM is up to 1.15. He’s going to split time with Robin Lopez, but is the way more fantasy relevant player. I would try him in a GPP on FD but nothing more.

Honorable Mention – Deandre Ayton (should smash in a high pace spot, with limited defense), Andre Drummond (only if Biid were out), Jusuf Nurkic

DK Core

Embiid, Mike Scott, Maxey, Danny Green – Yes, this is four Sixers but they are checking in as the four highest owned projected plays on the slate. It’s a rare time, but I’m running four, and then Beal is the next man in for me.

FD Core

Beal, Maxey, Sabonis, Danny Green – We all know how I feel on Embiid tonight 🙂

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