Adam Strangis NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/10
It’s tough to get a full grasp on the slate this early. The Nets could be without Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving again, they could have one or the other or they could have both. Boston is really the key to the whole slate. The whole team is under the cloud of the NBA’s health and safety protocols. They could be down to the minimum eight players and we’d have no choice to be very interested in that whole team. For now, we’re going to skip the Nets and Celtics. They will be included with the update that will come tomorrow either here or in Discord. We do still have plenty of other options to talk about, but be ready to pivot from what’s written in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/10 to get that right combo.
*UPDATE* – This slate is NUTS. The Miami Heat and Boston Celtics game has been POSTPONED, do NOT play any of those players. DeMar DeRozan, Karl Anthony-Towns and Kyrie Irving headline the stars that are out.
Point Guard
Steph Curry ($10,100 DK/$10,000 FD) – He was frustrating two games ago when he finished under 35 DK points but he’s really a strong option any given night. Over 41% of the field goal attempts allowed by the Raptors are from three point land, which is obviously in Curry’s wheelhouse. The Raptors are also 20th in real points allowed and 12th in pace, so the shootout potential is there. Curry is sporting a 32.7% usage and 1.51 FPPM at this stage of the season.
Dejontue Murray ($6,800 DK/$6,600 FD) – This is a copy and paste spot, as Murray is taking on the Wolves again. I have a gut feeling a Spur sits (looking at LaMarcus Aldridge in particular) on the back to back. LMA is coming off an injury and played nearly 30 minutes last night. Even if Aldridge plays, Murray is still solid. The teams play at a top 10 pace each and Murray is over a 1.10 FPPM with Aldridge in the lineup. It doesn’t hurt that Derrick White is out for the next little bit.
*Update* DeMar DeRozan is out, and Murray has a 32.2% usage and 1.44 FPPM over the course of 85 minutes this year with DDR off.
Elfrid Payton ($6,500 DK/$5,500 FD) – Payton was around 50% on FD last slate, put up 24.7 FD on 4-16 shooting and remains the same price. That mean’s I’m still interested for cash because Elf is still too cheap. Denver is on a back to back of their own, and are 23rd in real points allowed. With Elf contributing in every category, it ups his chances for assists and he can get to 30 without much of an issue.
Honorable Mention – Fred VanVleet, Kyle Lowry, Dennis Schroeder is way too cheap on FD if the Lakers are shorthanded again.
Shooting Guard
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($8,000 DK/$7,800 FD) – He’s only a point guard on DK, limiting my interest there. However, I do have to say that SGA looks like he might be putting his role together. He’s flirted with a triple-double in each of the past two games to some extent. SGA has also scored at least 47 FD points without scoring over 25 real points, showing his ability to rack up stats all over the board. I feel like SGA is going to get some traction on FD because the position is awful as we stand. He does at least have a 27.7% usage rate, even if things haven’t clicked all the way yet on a consistent basis.
Alright, I don’t normally do this but we have to wait to list off the other options. ALL of Caris LeVert, DeMar DeRozan, Marcus Smart and possibly even D’Angelo Russell could vary from mediocre plays to EXCELLENT plays, pending their teammates. This position might not be the most detailed even in the update, but we’ll get there and have a better list when we get the information.
*Update* LeVert is still an option, but I do think he is a little too pricey now at $8,000. My top SG is D-Lo, followed closely by SGA. Devin Vassell is popping as a strong value in the model as we stand, about 60 minutes before lock. There’s also a chance you could just spend low here, and spend up on PF and C tonight. Malik Beasley is in the conversation as well on FD, even though he’s not typically a cash play.
Small Forward
Jimmy Butler ($7,300 DK/$8,100 FD) – Buckets went for 459 DK last night and his price actually went down $100 on that site, so thank you DK. Much like SGA, Butler is shaking off a slow start and might be able to pick on a very short-handed Boston team. Butler leads with a usage approaching 28% and just missed a triple-double of his own. He’s not nearly expensive enough on either site.
*Update* Kevin Durant is the top SF play on this slate.
Will Barton ($5,800 DK/$5,900 FD) – As long as Michael Porter is out and Barton is getting 32-34 minutes a night, count me in. His FPPM is just 0.87 and he usage is just 18.8%, but the true shooting is really what’s holding him back. It’s a slow-paced game with both teams 20th or worse, but I simply won’t buy that New York is one of the five best teams in giving up real points. The salary is fair for a player of Barton’s caliber with poor shooting being the one factor that hurts him.
Honorable Mention – RJ Barrett since he never comes off the court. This position is very dependent on the top end and who’s availing between LeBron, KD, Tatum and Jaylen Brown.
Power Forward
Julius Randle ($9,500 DK/$9,400 FD) – He could wind up being among the chalkiest players on the slate, depending on who else we can spend on. Randle has been a monster so far this year, with a 28% usage rate and a 1.30 FPPM. One thing to watch here is both Randle and Jokic are in the top 14 in free throws per game. Jokic has had a bad habit of being foul-y a lot lately, flirting with the limit seemingly almost every game. It’s not enough to fade Randle and even in a game that could be tougher for him, I don’t think Joker is putting in work on the defensive end on a back to back.
Pascal Siakam ($7,800 DK/$8,400 FD) – Kyle Lowry is scheduled to make his way back into the lineup tomorrow, but I’m still plenty into Siakam. Spicy P isn’t the biggest paint player in the league, but he’s going to have an easier time dealing with Golden State than other teams. Golden State is 25th in points and 28th in rebounds allowed in the paint, not to mention bottom 10 in rebounds altogether. Siakam is still a 1.13 FPPM player with Lowry in, and both teams are in the top 12 in pace. This could be a fun late night hammer to stack if we get the proper value for GPP. As an aside, I love Chris Boucher in GPP on DK.
Kelly Olynyk ($5,400 DK/$5,000 FD) – He bit us a little bit when he was uber chalk, but we have short memories. Kelly O has been starting and playing nearly 30 minutes a night. In that span, he has a 1.00 FPPM and you could go the Tulloch route and say the revenge game, as Olynyk is an ex-Celtic. Bottom line is right now, he could be a strong value. Pending how the slate breaks, we may not need him at all and be going stars and scrubs to the max.
Honorable Mention – Possibly Anthony Davis, Daniel Theis, possibly Juancho if the Wolves sit KAT
*Update* Juancho looks like a strong value, since we can’t use Kelly Olynyk. The model is on Draymond Green on both sites, and I tend to trust that an awful lot 🙂 The Draymond play makes sense because he’s been playing 30+ minutes the past two games and contributes everywhere on the stat sheet. He is super cheap on DK, a factor I overlooked to some extent last night.
(shouts to Ghost because this slate could NOT have been easy to deal with).
Center
Bame Adebayo ($8,800 DK/$8,500 FD) – I’ll go right back to the big man, as he put up over 30 FD points in just 21 minutes last night. The Celtics are already down Tristan Thompson and Robert Williams, and Tacko Fall is not coordinated enough to hang with Bam. He matches Butler in usage and is at the higher FPPM at 1.27. It’s hard to imagine what Celtic really contains him.
Montrezl Harrell ($6,700 DK/$5,700 FD) – I would hesitate to go here if AD plays, but the matchup is so soft he is the only value center on the board right now. This slate could turn into one where it’s pretty simple to pay up at center for Jokic or Anthony-Towns. If not, we need someone to latch onto and it could be Trez. He’s only playing about 22-24 minutes, which is a bummer. However, Houston is bottom five in rebounds in the paint. The Rockets are also ninth in field goal attempts allowed within five feet, right into what Trez does best. This slate is still a mystery and center is one spot that is difficult to figure out yet.
Honorable Mention – KAT, Joker
I think Jokic winds up fairly high owned just because a lack of really strong options at center, with some San Antonio value mixed in to afford him. I suppose you could punt James Wiseman, but he hasn’t played over 20 minutes per game lately and that is very scary.
DK Core
Durant, Curry, Dejounte Murray, Vassell
FD Core
Jokic, Draymond, Dejounte Murray, Elf
PLEASE stay tuned to Discord, because we may not be done yet with news.
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