Jason Mezrahi 
I will keep this short and sweet. If you have been following my run in Discord for the past 3 months of NFL and NBA prop betting you would have your next 10 years of membership paid in full. If you haven’t followed along today is a good day to start trailing some NBA Prop bets. Last night we went 3-0 from the article bets but added 4 units as we had 2 units on Hart. You guys know I don’t parlay bets too often but the boys in Discord Expert Chat of course did and had a great night cashing in another SWEEP!
The place I start my research process daily is reviewing the entire NBA Player Prop Model here. I will publish this after locking my first bet and will be adding more throughout the day if I find value elsewhere.
Everything Wendell Carter Jr.
Just kidding but maybe not so much. I think the number is mispriced due to what looks to be a tough matchup for centers versus the two trees of Minnesota. But fear not, I think Wendell Carter Jr. gets it done for us tonight. Given it’s a tough matchup if he stays out of any type of foul trouble I see him getting a boost in minutes to help defend Towns and Gobert. Now typically when I see a mispricing I look to ladder bet, but not today. What I will do is a little different, let’s call it my triple threat bet so follow along.
- Over 9.5 Points -125 FanDuel 1 Unit. He went over this number 5 of the last 8 games.
- Over 16.5 Points + Rebounds DraftKings -125 1 Unit. He went over this number 6 of the last 8 games.
- Over 18.5 Points + Rebounds + Assist DraftKings -120 1 Unit. He went over this number 6 of the last 8 games.
Malcolm Brogdon over 25.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists -125 DraftKings
Brogdon has been playing great over the last couple weeks leading to some surprise victories for the Blazers. This is a tough matchup against Murray individually and of course there is blowout risk versus the Nuggets for sure. I’m going to trust the numbers here as Brogdon has eclipsed 25.5 in 8 straight games and most books already have this number at 26.5. If we get a close game and we get full minutes from Brogdon we should be good to go. We will be putting 1 unit here and if you are too late to getting the 25.5 its a no play for me but tail 26.5 at your own risk.
Markelle Fultz over 6.5 Rebounds + Assists +110 PointsBet
The player prop projection model loves Fultz tonight on both his rebounds and his assists total. You can bet it individually or play it safer in my humble opinion and stack the two stat lines in this combo and also get plus money which is nice. The model has him at 8.23 which is a nice edge, and if you look back to when he’s healthy where he has eclipsed 7 rebounds or 7 assists individually without combining the two stat lines. For that reason, and due to the plus money I’m willing to put 2 units on this bet here.
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