Jason Mezrahi 
I will keep this short and sweet. If you have been following my run in Discord for the past 3 months of NFL and NBA prop betting you would have your next 10 years of membership paid in full. If you haven’t followed along today is a good day to start trailing some NBA Prop bets. Last night we went 3-0 from the article bets and went 1-0 in live bets that were placed in our discord bringing us to another SWEEP!
The place I start my research process daily is reviewing the entire NBA Player Prop Model here. I will publish this after locking my first bet and will be adding more throughout the day if I find value elsewhere.
Lebron James over 6.5 Rebounds -135 DraftKings
Lebron has gone over 6.5 rebounds in 5 of the last 8 games and gets a true test in Boston tonight. The fear here is that the Celtics blow them out and Lebron gets his minutes cut. The upside here is Lebron goes beast mode and shows and proves why he’s probably a top 3 player of all time ( Don’t ever question MJ). Our prop model has Lebron at 8.18 which gives me a green light to back my gut that Lebron does everything he can tonight and gets our 1 unit returned to start our night.
Collin Sexton over 24.5 Points + Assists -120 DraftKings
Most books have this line at 25.5 or 26.5 but I got it early at 24.5 this morning before publishing this article ( I still like it at 25.5). Sexton has crushed this number in 7 of the last 10 games, and he has done in it on points alone in 4 of the last 10. Philly is hurting right now with no Embiid and the paint should be open with him off the court. We get a 238.5 over with what should be a competitive game ( I hope) and we should be cooking. Our model has this number above 28 so we should be clearing another unit here.
John Collins over 22.5 Points + Rebounds -120 FanDuel
For the reasons above I like Collins tonight to go over this prop. Good matchup, good pace, and no Embiid. Our model has him just squeaking by his number but Collins has been more active scoring and boarding over his past 10 games which has me comfortable laying a unit here.
Josh Hart over 13.5 Rebounds + Assists -110 DraftKings
Hart has stepped into the starting lineup and in the last 3 games he went from 32 minutes, to 39, to 42 minutes. In those same games he got 14, 19, and 20 combined rebounds and assists. These were in matchups versus Miami, Charlotte, and Utah. Now he gets the juiciest of matchups with a 236 over/under where Hart will be displaying all heart flying around the court and padding his stats. This was a 1 unit play as I’m typing my thoughts I’m moving it to a 2 unit play the more I think about it.
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