The NBA season is less than a week away, and we have another Futures Bets article to share. Last week, I laid out the case for Rookie of the Year. While that will be very top-heavy, there is also value in several long shots. The MVP Race has a similar construct; we have four candidates bunched tightly at the top and a middle pack with some real value.

For NBA MVP betting, this is one of my favorite in-season bets and preseason bets. For the preseason side, out of the past 10 MVP winners, only 2 were the favorite before the season started (Westbrook 2016, Giannis 2020). But one other note to consider: of the past ten winners, only one had greater odds than +2000 (Jokic 2021).

For in-season betting, I witnessed Embiid get off to a slow start last year and got 20-1 odds on his MVP probability. Jayson Tatum and Luca Doncic started hot and had the lowest odds after the season’s first month. They ended up fading, and we saw familiar faces, such as Jokic, Giannis, and Embiid, battling for the MVP award for the 3rd straight season. So my recommendation for in-season betting is to keep an eye on the top 5-8 preseason odds and then watch the dip and buy low on a candidate with a top team but off to a bad start.

For 2023-24, things will be different this year. For one, Embiid may not have the services of a point guard who led the league in assists. Secondly, Giannis has a high-volume scorer paired with him, Damian Lillard, which will undoubtedly affect his scoring. And then there’s Jokic, who is now the hunted and will play with a different focal point. He also played basketball deep into the summer for the first time in his career, which will take some toll on his body and potentially his early season performance. And remember, Embiid and Giannis have new coaches this season, which could change their volume. While the three greats mentioned above are still in the running and fantastic choices for the NBA’s premier award, there also could be voter fatigue settling in and people looking for a new player to back.

Before we get into my favorite bets for MVP, here are two critical factors I prioritize. The first is factoring in the All-NBA Teams. Since 2000, only two players weren’t named to an All-NBA Team the year before they won NBA MVP. They were:

• 2004-05: Steve Nash

• 2010-11: Derek Rose

And those two above had special cases where we can explain the anomaly. First, Steve Nash’s first season under Mike D’Antonio in Phoenix was in the 2004-05 season coming over as a free agent from Dallas. His stats increased in the fast-paced Suns offense and led Phoenix to the best record in the NBA.

As for Derek Rose, the Bulls fired HC Vinnie Del Negro after the 2009-2010 season and brought in Tom Thibodeau. In 2010-11, the Bulls surprised everyone by leading the league in wins with 62. Remember, this was the first season of the Super Team in Miami. Lebron was coming off two straight MVPs, and there was voter fatigue and resentment in how the Heat came together as a team. This showed in the results as James received just four 1st place votes for MVP. Rose was also the youngest player, at age 22, to ever win the award.

Looking even deeper, of the twenty-three award winners this century, only six weren’t on the All-NBA 1st Team the year before winning the award. Including the two above, the others are:

• 2013-14: Steph Curry (All-NBA 2nd Team)

• 2017-18: Giannis Antetokounmpo (All-NBA 2nd Team)

• 2019-20: Nikola Jokic (All-NBA 2nd Team)

• 2021-22: Joel Embiid (All NBA 2nd Team)

So, case in point, outside a situation like Nash or Rose, twenty-one of the twenty-three most recent MVP’s have come from the All-NBA 1st or 2nd team the season before. That narrows our list of candidates down to 10.

The other thing to consider is scoring. Again, looking back to 2000, we’ve had twenty-three winners of the award, and only four have scored under 24 points per game in a season (83% averaged over 24 ppg). Those players were:

• 2014-15: Steph Curry (23.8 ppg)

• 2005-06: Steve Nash (18.8 ppg)

• 2004-05: Steve Nash (15.5 ppg)

• 2002-03: Tim Duncan (23.3 ppg)

But the one thing these players all had in common was winning. Their teams averaged 61 wins per season, and none finished worse than 2nd in their conference (3 of 4 had the best record in the NBA).

Scoring and All-NBA are the two most important metrics to project this season’s award winner. And if they aren’t scoring, we need to find a player on a team capable of winning 60+ games. 

Here are the players I am backing to win the NBA MVP.

LUKA DONCIC +600 DK

Let’s face it: Luka wore down last season, which looked primarily because of his conditioning. It was a criminal act for the Mavs to miss the playoffs with the roster they had. But it may also be for the best in 2023-24 because they endured less wear and tear and have more tread on their tires heading into this season.

Luka is now entering his 6th season in the NBA and has been trending upward each year. While he has yet to play more than 72 games in a season, rumors are that he’s in great shape. And realistically, if the Mavs didn’t fade last season, Doncic would have challenged for league MVP as he ended 2nd in scoring at 32.4 ppg. That mark alone was the 18th best in NBA history. So, he checks the box when it comes to scoring. And for my other essential factor, Luka made the All-NBA 1st team a season ago.

Doncic also has an entire offseason to team with Kyrie Irving and figure out how to coexist. This is important as Kyrie has played side-by-side with past MVPs such as Lebron James, Kevin Durant, and James Harden.

Let’s remember Dallas made the Western Conference finals just two seasons ago. Enough talent is in place for them to be one of the top dogs out West again. The team will need to put up wins for Luka to win MVP. And that will happen as they’ve constructed a tougher roster around two ball-dominant players. Dallas will challenge Memphis for the top team in the Southwest Division and be a factor out West.

Doncic is a candidate to put up a triple-double any night and will once again challenge for a scoring title. The key to this bet will be health and team success.

JAYSON TATUM +800 DK

Each year, I become increasingly impressed with Jayson Tatum’s game. He’s a gym rat who works as hard as anyone else to craft his game and develop his conditioning. If it wasn’t for a shooting slump midseason and ultimately Boston dropping to the 2nd seed in the east, we may be talking about Tatum hoisting the Michael Jordan Trophy. After all, he put up the best season of his career in 2022-23 by posting career highs in points (30.1 PPG), rebounds (8.8 RPG) and assists (4.6 APG). And because of that, he was named to the All-NBA 1st team last year. Check and Check.

The biggest issue with Tatum may be his supporting cast. And that’s a compliment to what Boston has done in the offseason as they removed pieces like Marcus Smart, Robert Williams, and Grant Williams and replaced them with Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis. By doing so, the C’s will be less reliant on Tatum and Brown having to outscore other teams.

However, the reality is this: the new additions to Boston’s lineup may make Tatum more efficient. Last year, Tatum finished 14th in PER, far from the top. But it was a step in the right direction as he finished 27th in PER in 2021-22 and 34th in 2020-21. Increasing his True Shooting Percentage (TS%) at a lower usage rate will bode well for him and the team.

Last is this: Tatum won the All-Star Game MVP last year. While that game is a farce, the player who holds up the Kobe Bryant Trophy is typically a challenger for NBA MVP. Prior to Tatum winning, six of the last eight All-Star MVPs also had at least one NBA MVP sitting on their mantle. The point is that Tatum is a star in this league and plays on one of the best teams in the NBA. Those two alone make these odds worth gambling on.

STEPH CURRY +1500 DK

Greg Maddox and Tom Glavine once said, “Chicks Dig The Long Ball”. It was a hilarious commercial and one you must check out on YouTube in case you’ve never seen it. Basketball’s version of the long ball is the three-pointer. And not only do chicks dig three-pointers, but so do MVP voters. In both of Steph Curry’s MVP seasons (2014-15 & 2015-16), he set a new record for three-pointers made in a season. His teams also won an average of 67 wins in those two seasons. So winning and historical shooting numbers propelled Curry to MVP status.

The issue with Curry is health, as he has played at most 69 games in the last six seasons. Age is also a factor, as no one over 28 years-old has won this award since Steve Nash in 2005-06. Last season, Curry played just 56 games, which was the third lowest in his thirteen-year career. However, his stats were still competitive with his peak seasons, as he made 4.9 three-pointers per game compared to 5.1 three-pointers during his MVP seasons. So the skillset is still there, and the volume will be as Golden State will still rely heavily on his offensive weaponry.

Then there’s the fact that Golden State is ready for a clean slate. Last season was tarnished early on when Draymond Green and Jordan Poole got into a fight in practice. The team could never fully bond, which showed as Poole had a forgettable season. But the Warriors moved quickly in the offseason and shipped the disgruntled guard to Washington and brought in veteran Chris Paul to help guide this team back on track. The Warriors are well-suited to make another run at the top and will have motivation from losing to the Lakers.

If we get prime Warriors, winning 55+ games, and a healthy Curry, then a third MVP will be well in reach for the game’s best shooter of all time. And he checks also checks my two most important boxes as he’s coming off a season where he scored 29.4 ppg and made All-NBA 2nd team.

SHAI GILGEOUS-ALEXANDER +1600 DK

If you’re reading this article, you are well aware of how good Gilgeous-Alexander is. His ascendence in the small market of OKC is genuinely remarkable. So much so that OKC made the playoffs last season. Yes, it was the play-in game, but that was still a surprise as they leapfrogged the Mavericks and Jazz, who made the playoffs the previous year. The Thunder PG was able to do that with one of the youngest teams in the league, as their average age was 22.8 years old.

SGA’s scoring output was even more impressive as he put up 31.4 ppg, which was 4th best in the NBA, trailing only Embiid, Doncic, and Lillard. Because of the team’s performance and his individual stats, Gilgeous-Alexander made the All-NBA 1st team. So, once again, we’ve found that combination we’re looking for with All-NBA honors and scoring prowess.

This year could even be another step toward the top of the Western Conference for OKC. They welcome the #2 pick from the 2022 NBA Draft back to their team in Chet Holmgren. The former Gonzaga standout missed his rookie season due to injury. I don’t think adding Chet will slow SGA’s usage and should only increase some of his other stats, such as assists per game and three-point shooting.

The Thunder have a star on their hands. And while it may take voters to change their perceptions to vote for Alexander, he’ll put up numbers that will challenge the top dogs in the league. And with that and another All-NBA selection on the horizon, this price is too good to pass up.