The NBA season starts in three days, and we have another award that is worth betting on. If you haven’t read my previous articles yet, head over to my MVP Odds and ROY Odds posts.

Over the years, the NBA Most Improved Player has produced good value in the betting market. We’ve seen NBA greats, including future MVPs, win this award. But some players excelled in that one year and were barely to be heard of again. It’s an award that varies and doesn’t focus on one skill set except for availability and playing time. More often than not, the winning player doesn’t dramatically improve but instead is given greater opportunity.

Case in point: Lauri Markkanen won the NBA Most Improved Player Award last year. What was different about his 2022-23 campaign from the one prior? The simple answer was he played for a new team. But embedded in that further were two critical factors: an increase in usage rate and points scored.

Looking back at the last five winners of this award, usage rate increased by an average of 4.9%, and points per game went up by an average of 7.9 ppg. 

So, we need to find a player with a projected increased role in his offense. And the factors that drive that increase are typically:

–                  Playing for a new team

–                  Coming off an injury

–                  Previously played on the bench, projected to start

–                  The current team had a roster overhaul

With this information, let’s dive into who are the best bets to hold up the George Mikan Trophy at season’s end.

MIKAL BRIDGES +1000 DK

The Nets wing is the favorite to win this year’s award, and for good reason. Since coming over to Brooklyn in the trade for Kevin Durant, Mikal Bridges increased his points from 17 ppg on Phoenix to over 26 ppg on the Nets. So he checks the box, and we can anticipate an increase in scoring by a minimum of 6 ppg.

The other piece of good news with Bridges is that he is durable. The former Villanova standout has yet to miss an NBA game. He has a narrow frame but one that is strong and built for the wear and tear of a long NBA season.

Lastly, he fits one of my critical criteria on why his usage and points will increase. While it’s technically not a new team, it is as far as his season-long stats are concerned. Of his 82 games played, only 27 were for the Nets. So, this will be considered his first full season for the Nets. And one in which he will be the focal point of an offense and show why he’s a rising star in this league.

TYRESE MAXEY +1300 DK

The Sixers PG is a dynamic player in the NBA, as witnessed by his volume scoring in games without the Sixers stars. When asked to dominate the ball, Maxey scored a career-high 44 points last season versus Toronto. That game was without Joel Embiid. Later that same season, he put up 37 points against the Suns. That game was sans James Harden. And if you’ve watched any news surrounding the Sixers, you know that one of their stars, James Harden, wants out. When that eventually happens, Maxey will be given the keys to the car, and his stats will ascend upwards and hit all the key metrics we’ve identified.

And that will be the important part to handicap when betting on Maxey. When does Harden get traded? If it’s not before the season, does he pout or play for Philly? Either way, this one is simple. The Sixers want Tyrese Maxey to be the Robin to Joel Embiid. These odds will indeed shrink once Harden is traded. Grab this healthy number now and watch Maxey flourish into a perennial All-Star while challenging for the Most Improved Player of the Year this season.

CADE CUNNINGHAM +1500 DK

Motor Cade suffered a left tibia fracture after only 12 games of action and was forced to sit out the rest of the season. He also missed time in his rookie season and has now played just 76 games in two years. But that could bode well in his campaign to win Most Improved Player. And here’s the case for why I’m willing to back Cunningham.

In his first two seasons, his highest PER is 14.0. The lowest PER of any winner of this award in the past five years is 18.7. So, to win this award, he would need a 30% increase and set a career-high PER, which is what all the recent winners have done.

Additionally, his highest points per game to date is 19.9. To be considered for this prestigious award, he’ll need to get to at least 25 ppg which would get us the necessary increase that matches previous winners.

But the other main reason is that Cunningham will consume the highest usage rate on this team. He has an average usage rate of 30% over two seasons. If he continues at that rate, his points and PER should skyrocket. It’s all about health and opportunity here. We can’t have one without the other, but if he plays 70+ games, he’ll have the numbers to put him in the top three of this award.

TYUS JONES +2200 DK

This is all about opportunity. Tyus Jones was moved out of Memphis this offseason and found a new home in our Nation’s Capital. Over the past two seasons, he played the backup PG role for the Grizzlies. But Jones was great when called upon to start games for an oft-injured Ja Morant. He put up 17 ppg, 8 apg, and 4 rpg in those infrequent situations. It’s a healthy stat line that could even be expanded in a starting role in Washington.

The other factors that translate from his bench role to his new expanded opportunity this season is that he led the league in assist-to-turnover ratio by a wide margin. And he’s posted a 0.524 effective FG% over the past two seasons, which trailed only the top PG’s such as Steph Curry, Tyrese Halliburton, and Shai Gilgeous Alexander.

But most importantly, as we started this section, this is all about opportunities. Tyus Jones will set career highs in minutes, usage, and points. This is similar to what we saw last year with Lauri Markkanen. Jones is an established player in this league, but with no stars on the Wizards, he will be relied upon to be ball-dominant, and with that, he’ll put up numbers that are exponentially higher than what he did as a role player on a better team which will put his name in contention for Most Improved Player.