We’ve touched on several NBA awards, including Rookie of the Year, Most Valuable Player and Most Improved Player. But today, we’re going to look at Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY) odds and uncover which players have value in the betting market.

To make an informed bet, we need to dive into what type of player as well as what metrics past winners have excelled in. As is with most awards, availability plays a crucial role in DPOY. But there are some other underlying factors that voters use when making their selection. Let’s go into that as well as recent history.

Past DPOY Winners

When you think about defense in the NBA, it often starts with eye-opening blocks and dominating the paint. For that reason, this award is often given to a big-man, meaning a Center or Power Forward. Like we did with the other awards, let’s look at the winners during this century:

• Of the 23 winners since 2000-2001 season, 19 have been either a Center or Power Forward.
• The four winners who weren’t classified as a C or PF were:
  • 2022 – Marcus Smart (PG)
  • 2016 – Kawhi Leonard (SF)
  • 2015 – Kawhi Leonard (SF)
  • 2004 – Metta World Peace (SF)
• Since 2000, there have been five back-to-back winners.
• Of the 23 players that have won the award this century, none have missed the playoffs.

So as you can see, we can already throw out any shooting guard nominated for the award. That’s because there has never been an SG that has won the award of late (and the only one that truly won it was Michael Jordan).

The other interesting data point is that voter fatigue doesn’t become as big of a factor as we’ve seen a total of ten players win this award in back-to-back seasons.

DPOY Important Metrics

We know the rim protectors win this award the most. But what are the metrics that help build their case for DPOY. It starts with blocks, but doesn’t necessarily end there.

BLOCKS – Since the year 2000, the DPOY winner averaged 2.1 blocks per game. However, interesting enough, is that only four DPOY winners led the league in blocks per game. In fact, last year’s award winner Jaren Jackson did lead the league in blocks per game but he was the first to do it and win DPOY since Dwight Howard in 2009.

REBOUNDS – It makes sense that to be good at defense, you should also be good at rebounding the ball. Since 2000, the DPOY winner also led the league in rebounds five times. And of those 23 winners, fourteen averaged over 10 rebounds per game.

DEFENSIVE RATING / DEFENSIVE WIN SHARES – This is the one area that correlates well with DPOY. Defensive Rating is a metric that measures how many points a player allows per 100 possessions. In the past 12 seasons, the winner of this award had a Defensive Rating no higher than 106.6 (Jackson 2023). Of those 12 winners, seven had Defensive Rating below 100.

And looking at Defensive Win Shares (DWS), which is a metric used to estimate a player’s ability to improve its team’s defense, there is even finer correlation to DPOY. Of the last 12 winners, eleven of them were in the top 10 in DWS. And of the 12 recent winners, five led the league in DWS.

GAMES PLAYED – As mentioned earlier, availability is a significant factor in winning this award. Over the past 10 seasons, the winner of this award averaged playing in 70 games. And that’s with a shortened season for COVID in 2020. The lowest amount of games played was by Rudy Gobert when he appeared in 56 games in 2017-18.

So now that we’ve rolled up our stats and other important factors, here’s what I focused on for putting together who to bet on:

• Heavily favor a PF or C. If looking outside these positions, focus on defensive rating.
• Ensure a player is on a team that will compete for the playoffs.
• Look at prior season DWS and Defensive Rating. Players on the cusp of this award usually had a very good season prior to winning DPOY.
• Don’t rule out the potential for repeat winners of the award since it has happened often. Defense is one skill that does translate well year-to-year.

JAREN JACKSON JR +600 DK

The reigning DPOY is at the top of our list this year. There were articles written last season on how the Grizzlies scorers inflated Jackson’s stats at home. And that could be the case. But what was clear was Jackson’s ability to dominate the game defensively. He led the league in blocks with a 3.0 per game average. And he did all that while playing only 28.4 minutes per game. I say only, because Jackson would have played more time if he could keep himself out of foul trouble. The Memphis PF led the league in personal fouls per game at 3.64.

There is also some thought here that the Grizzlies will be more of a defensive minded team this year. Though they lost Dillon Brooks in FA, they were able to replace him with 2021-22 DPOY in Marcus Smart. And with superstar, Ja Morant, scheduled to miss the first 25 games, their pace of play will likely come down. This will all lead to an improved DWS for Jackson. And any uptick in stats from last season will go a long way in validating his candidacy for back-to-back DPOY’s.

Finally, as mentioned earlier, this award has been the one that sees the most frequent multiple winners. Jackson is young, entering his year 25 season, and has room to get even better. Even if that’s simply just fouling less and playing more.

EVAN MOBLEY +650 DK

The Cavs young PF/C finished 4^th in the DPOY last season. He also flashed good defensive metrics finishing 5^th in Defensive Win Shares and a Defensive Rating of 109.0. He’s a long athletic player that can guard both the perimeter and the paint. And he’s only 22 years old which shows there’s more room to grow.

The other factor that is in Mobley’s favor is that he leads the best defensive unit in the league. The Cavaliers led the NBA in Defensive Rating with a team number of 109.9. Cleaveland also allowed the fewest points per game in the league at 106.5.

If the Cavs are able to repeat their defensive success as a team, and Mobley continues to grow in his defensive stopper role, he will be a top choice for DPOY. So much so, that I like his chances better than the favorite. He checks all the boxes as far as my key metrics go; plays PF/C, on a playoff team, and has improved his defensive metrics to the point where he’s rated in the top 10 in all key areas.

ANTHONY DAVIS +1000 DK

Anthony Davis is thought of as a premiere defender but has never won DPOY. He’s had years when he was in the top 10 in DWS and played 70+ games (2016-17). What’s been his biggest crutch has been his availability. He hasn’t played more than 62 games since joining LA in 2019. And he’s only played an average of 44 games per season over the past three years.

What’s in his favor is that as he’s aged, he’s become an even better off ball defender. In 56 games last season he averaged 2.0 blocks per game but his block rate was 59% which was good for 10^th in the league. He also put up a top 10 DWS number, and that’s with the Lakers ending up 12^th in Defensive Rating.

AD is a menace in the paint and teams have to gameplan for him. His block numbers plus his DWS are numbers he needs to keep improving. But ultimately, he needs to play. And by play, I mean he needs to play the most games he’s played in a Lakers uniform. If he’s able to do that, pay close attention to the Brow because these odds are very tempting for a rangy defender like the Davis.

BROOK LOPEZ +1200 DK

The Bucks big man used to be a volume scorer. Then he adapted his game and became more of a perimeter threat. In recent years, he also improved his defense helping Milwaukee climb to the top of team defensive metrics last year. The Bucks improved greatly in 2022-23 raising to 4^th in Defensive Rating. And it didn’t go unnoticed that Lopez was a big factor. He ended 2^nd in the league in blocks per game at 2.5 which was a 200% increase over his previous year’s average of 1.2.

And this year, Lopez looks to be in good position to challenge his career highs. That’s because Damian Lillard has come to town and he’s not the greatest defender. Which means Lopez will have plenty of opportunities to clean up the guards coming through the paint. Lastly, Lopez finished 3^rd in DWS last season and made 1^st Team All NBA Defense. He’s on voters radars but yet has just the 6^th best odds. To me, Lopez provides the best value of any defender this year and is someone I have targeted in the