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Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for the Xfinity series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new the WinDaily Sports or to my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.
Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site with contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.
While the Cup Series celebrates All-Star weekend, the Xfinity Series is racing for points and playoff positioning this week. Texas is your basic “cookie-cutter” 1.5-mile track that is similar to Las Vegas, Atlanta, and Kansas. Texas was repaved in 2017, so any track history prior to that is not relevant, but I will mainly focus on the two races from 2020. This race has 167 laps so I will be looking to fit three dominators in my builds, which should be easy because of the low pricing on some of the better plays.
One thing that could make getting three dominators into your lineups will be the price of Kyle Busch ($14,500). Busch starts from P14 and should dominate this race like he typically does. I will try and lead you on a path for one lineup builds with Busch in them, especially if you are playing SE or cash games. If you are like me and playing multiple lineups, try to roster Busch in 75% of your builds because I don’t see it likely to get a takedown without him.
NASCAR DFS: Dominators
Josh Berry ($10,200)
Starting Position: 28th
Berry is pulling double duty and there is some fear that he may be exhausted from the heat in Texas after running the Truck race. I am not worried about this, if Berry thought it was going to be too much for him he would’ve pulled out of the Truck race in my opinion. Berry has been nothing short of spectacular for the #8 JRM team this season. In his last six races, Berry has a win, two 2nd place finishes, and an 8th place finish. Berry also has to finishes of 31st and 32nd during that span, but in both those races, he wrecked out early.
Austin Cindric ($11,000)
Starting Position: 4th
Cindric is in line for his second straight Xfinity Series championship as he continues to dominate in 2021. Texas is another track where Cindric has been nothing short of dynamite in his Xfinity career. In six races at Texas, Cindric has one victory, four top 5’s, five top 10’s, and an average finish of 5.2, Cindric is my pick to win this week and should end up leading the most laps as well on Saturday.
Harrison Burton ($9,700)
Starting Position: 18th
Last week at Mid-Ohio was only the second time this season that Burton finished lower than 12th (38th). I expect that we will see Burton competing for another top 10 on Saturday, his 10th on the season in just 14 races. Burton is severely underpriced based on his upside and should be chalky, but I think we just eat the good chalk in this case and find other ways to be different. In three career Xfinity races at Texas, Burton has never finished lower than 7th (2019). Burton had two top 5’s here last season, including winning the race last time the series was here in October.
Justin Allgaier ($9,900)
Starting Position: 16th
In eight races at Texas since 2017 (when the track was repaved) Allgaier has six finishes of 13th or better including three finishes in the top 6. Like with Harrison Burton, I feel that Allgaier is underpriced for his upside on Saturday. Since March 20th at Phoenix, Allgaier has two wins, four top 5’s, and six top 10’s in eight races.
Other Options: Noah Gragson ($11,500 – P30) : Obviously the upside is there, but he has been so bad this season it is hard to pay this salary. Daniel Hemric ($9,100 – P5), Brandon Jones ($9,400 – P3)
NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier
Jeremy Clements ($7,100)
Starting Position: 20th
Clements’s best-ever finish at Texas was last season in the Summer race (11th) and should have the chance to top that on Saturday. So far in 2021 Clements has nine top 15 finishes in 13 races this season, which is half of what he had in 33 races last season. Clements has 10th, 12th, and 17th place finishes at similar 1.5-mile tracks this season. Combine Clements’ low price with his potential upside and he could lead to someone getting a takedown on Saturday.
Michael Annett ($8,500)
Starting Position: 6th
This week the mid-tier is pretty barren but if you have the salary to make Annett fit, he could be an extremely low-owned play that could pay off. I don’t think Annett is safe for cash games or single entry, but in GPP’s he is viable. If you are going the path of fading Kyle in lineup’s you could use Annett in those builds. In his last five races, Annett has four top 11 finishes, and at Texas, in the last two seasons, Annett has never finished lower than 11th.
Other Options: Brett Moffitt ($7,700 – P19), Jeb Burton ($8,300 – P8), Riley Herbst ($7,900 – P12)
NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings
- Tommy Joe Martins ($6,000) – P36: Martins projects as the top FPTS/$ play on the entire slate and I plan on having a good amount of him
- Bayle Currey ($6,300) – P39: Currey is another great FPTS/$ play and with the PD upside he is another driver I will have plenty of exposure too
- Jeffrey Earnhardt ($6,400) – P33: Another driver with good place differential upside at a good price
- Stefan Parsons ($6,100) – P37: If you haven’t noticed the trend yet, I am looking for point-per-dollar plays, and Parsons fits that bill nicely.
- Ronnie Bassett Jr. ($5,900) – P38
- Joe Graf Jr ($6,500) – P35
If you want to roster Kyle Busch and another top tier driver, you will need to make three of these drivers fit. I want place differential plays and the drivers who can hurt us the least, that why you see every driver starting P33 or lower.
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