NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Xfinity Series Texas 10/16

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for the Xfinity series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then, you know the drill, but welcome if you are new to WinDaily Sports or my NASCAR content! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles. Since they are the only site with contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

…And Then There Were Eight

There are only three races left until the Championship is handed out in Phoenix on November 6th. If one of the eight remaining drivers in the playoffs wins this race, they will book their ticket to the finale. We could see some reckless driving in the closing laps. Texas is a low-tire track, so I will be looking back at races this season from Las Vegas and Charlotte to see who ran well there.

One thing you won’t see in my article this week is the ridiculously high-priced Kaz Grala ($11,200). Normally when Grala is in a race and starting this far back (32nd) we would be all over him, but not this week. Grala isn’t in great equipment and the price is just too steep that I cannot see him making value. Since 2019, Grala has only raced at one 1.5-mile track, so with the lack of track time at this type, I don’t feel comfortable using him here as well.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier

Justin Allgaier ($10,200)

Starting Position: 6th

Earlier this season at Texas, Allgaier led 23 laps on his way to a second-place finish. Texas has been one of Allgaier’s better tracks since it was repaved in 2017. Since 2018 if you remove his two wrecks, Allgaier has three top 5 finishes and has finished 12th or better in five races. While he has never won a race at Texas, he is one of the best drivers at this track in the field on Saturday.

John Hunter Nemechek ($10,700)

Starting Position: 10th

Nemechek has run three career races here in Texas but none since 2019. In his three races here Nemechek has never finished lower than 9th and has two top 5 finishes as well. Nemechek will be in the #54 car for Joe Gibbs Racing on Saturday, far and away the best equipment he has been in any of his previous Texas races. With the way this car has run in 2021, I will say that JHN is my pick to win this race.

Harrison Burton ($9,900)

Starting Position: 8th

Harrison Burton won this race last season by leading 24 total laps. Earlier this season Burton did not fare well here as he finished 30th thanks to a crash with just five laps to go. Outside of that one poor finish, Burton has performed well. Looking back over this season at this track type, Burton has finished top 10 in all three races including a third-place finish at Charlotte.

As with every race in 2021 both AJ Allmendinger ($10,500 – P1) and Autin Cindric ($9,800 – P2) are great plays but are somewhat risky because of their starting position. I do prefer Cindric because of his lower salary.

Other Options: Justin Haley ($9,200 – P4), Brett Moffitt ($9,400 – P26), Noah Gragson ($9,600 – P5)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Daniel Hemric ($8,800)

Starting Position: 3rd

Will Daniel Hmeric ever get a win? Probably, but I’ve stopped trying to predict when that will happen. Hemric has been successful here at Texas since the repaving was down in 2017. In three races since then, Hemric has finished top 10 in all three, including two top 5’s, and has led laps in all three races including this season when he finished 4th and led 13 laps.

Ryan Sieg ($7,300)

Starting Position: 22nd

Sieg has been consistently around the top 10 every race (minus the two he had mechanical issues) since the repave was done in 2017. Since then, Sieg has had four finishes between 10th and 12th in five races, the outlier being an 18th place finish in the first race of 2018. Seig projects as a mid-teens driver for me with top 10 upside.

Brandon Brown ($7,900)

Starting Position: 18th

Brown has six career races at Texas and has only finished outside the top 20 one time (Fall race in 2019). In those six races, Brown has one top 5 and two top 10’s. Earlier this season here at Texas, Brown finished 13th which is about where I see him finishing again on Saturday.

Other Options: Jeb Burton ($8,400 – P13): Burton has three top 10’s and a top 5 in seven races at Texas, JJ Yeley ($7,400 – P33), Riley Herbst ($8,600 – P20)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

1. Bayley Currey ($5,200) – P39: Currey didn’t even get one lap in here in the spring before his day was over because of an electrical issue. But, no need to worry he is not in that same car he is in a much better car on Saturday. Currey has been a high teens to low 20’s driver here in his career and while I am not sure he can achieve that a mid 20’s finish would do us just fine for this salary and starting position.
2. Tommy Joe Martins ($6,400) – P24: TJM has been another solid driver at Texas over his career. His one bad race was all the way back in 2014 before the repave so that doesn’t count. Since then he has a top 10 (this race in 2020) and has never finished lower than 21st. I look for Martins to be a high teens driver on Saturday.
3. David Starr ($4,900) – P36: Starr has been outstanding at Texas since 2018 (for a value tier driver). In the last seven races, Starr has five top 25 finishes including two top 20’s (20th and 13th). If we can get Starr in the top 25 he will smash value, be in the optimal, and potentially get someone a takedown. I see him more as a high 20’s driver, but with attrition he could easily pull off another top 25.
4. Dylan Lupton ($6,700) – P29: Lupton only has one relevant race at Texas and that was in 2018 where he finished 17th. This week though, Lupton is in much better equipment (Sam Hunt #26) and should be a threat for another top 20, maybe even top 15. My strategy is to play three top tier drivers, but if you want to be different and go with 2, Lupton is a grat mid/value fringe option on Saturday.
5. Ryan Vargas ($5,100) – P30: Vargas had a decent 24th place finish at Texas earlier this season, but he was in the 4 car, this week he is back in the #6. Last season at this race, Vargas drove the #6 to an 8th place finish. I do not expect a repeat performance but I do see Vargas finish top 20 on Saturday which would be great value for his salary.
6. Jesse Little ($5,400) – P34: Little had a rough day here in the spring and finished 29th because of mechanical issues. In 2020 though, Little had finishes of 14th and 15th here, allbeit in better equipment. I still think there is upside here with Little though for his price. I see him as a low to mid 20’s driver in this race, as long as his car holds up.
7. Jeremy Clements ($6,100) – P14: Clements is typically a safe play, even when he starts in the teens. Of course with any race, carnage can happen he occasionally gets caught up in it but Clements is a smart driver who tends to finish around where he starts. I think Clements is a mid to high teens driver with top 10 upside if things fall his way.

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