NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Xfinity Series Pocono 6/27/21

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for the Xfinity series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new the WinDaily Sports or to my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site with contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

NASCAR DFS: Xfinity Series

This weekend we have a rare Sunday Xfinity Series race as they play opener for the Cup Series’ second race at Pocono in two days. Pocono is a long 2.5-mile triangular race track and because of this we only have 90 laps. With there being so few laps, we will not need to hunt for dominator points but look more towards place differential and finishing positions.

This week we have an Xfinity Series only field with no full-time Cup Series drivers “invading”. Josh Berry ($10,200) is no longer driving the #8 JR Motorsports and will be in the #31 for Jordan Anderson while the ultra-talented, yet young, Sam Mayer ($10,000) will be in the 8 for the majority of the season going forward.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Ty Gibbs ($10,800)

Starting Position: 14th

Gibbs is another huge upside driver on Sunday (are you starting to see a trend with this tier?) and he could be the second-highest owned driver after Cindric this week. In his limited races this season, Gibbs has only one finish outside the top 5, an 18th place finish at Darlington. Gibbs will be a threat to win again on Sunday (his 3rd of the season) and if he can outrace Cindric he could find himself in victory lane once again.

Austin Cindric ($11,000)

Starting Position: 13th

Cindric is the reigning Xfinity champion and the class of the field most weeks (depending on if Kyle is racing), and this week should be no different. Last year Cindric was involved in a wreck halfway through the Pocono race and ended up 29th, but in his two other starts before 2020, he was great. Cindric didn’t lead a bunch of laps in those races, only 7 combined, but he managed to finish 4th and 7th respectively. I expect Cindric to be the chalk of this tier, but starting 13th he offers the best upside in this tier…or does he?

Sam Mayer ($10,000)

Starting Position: 20th

Mayer is one the most talented young drivers in the sport and we can look forward to him and Ty Gibbs ($10,800) battling it out for wins and titles for many years to come. This week Mayer takes over where Josh Berry left off in the #8 for JRM and will hopefully be able to keep up the pace that Berry has set for this team. Mayer literally turns 18 the day before this race (does this count as a birthday adjacent narrative Brian?) and has never raced above the Truck Series before, but he has shined in his 12 races there. Mayer has only 2 finishes below 18th, has one win, two top 5’s, and four top 10’s. If you take out his two poor finishes at the Daytona road course and Martinsville, Mayer’s average finish is 11.3 (19.5 with them) and he is stepping up in equipment big time. Combined his upside and talent on Sunday and I really like the possibility for a big day for Mayer.

Josh Berry ($10,200)

Starting Position: 33rd

Like I mentioned early, Berry had a great run in the #8 for JRM but that is over for this season as Mayer takes over. With that being said, Berry isn’t done in as he hops in the #31 for Jordan Anderson for the second time this season. Berry has great place differential upside this week which will be what pays off his huge price tag. Earlier this season Berry drove this car to an 8th place finish at Mid Ohio. If we can get a similar finish on Sunday then Berry will pay off that tag

** I plan to roster 3 of the above drivers in every lineup I build, but I will not force it. I will however have at least 2 in every lineup because there is so much value that it will be easy to do.**

Other Options: Daniel Hemric ($9,700 – P6), Harrison Burton ($9,300 – P1), AJ Allmendinger ($9,500 – P3)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Brandon Brown ($8,400)

Starting Position: 24th

I am happy to see that DraftKings priced Brown up this week which will hopefully keep his ownership down on Sunday. Last week Brown had a good run going when he had brake issues which led to his 33rd place finish. Before last week Brown had three top 10’s in his last five races and four finishes of 13th or better. Last season at Pocono Brown had an oil tank issue which led to him only running 7 laps and finishing 33rd, but in 2019 Brown started 27th and ended up 13th. Like I mentioned, I think Brown’s price keeps his ownership down which I love because I think he gets it back together this weekend.

Myatt Snider ($7,300)

Starting Position: 19th

Snider had a hot start to the 2021 season but it has all seemingly fallen apart for the young driver. Even though he has been mired in a slump, coming to Pocono could be the cure. In two starts at Pocono in two series Snider has run well finishing 4th last season in the Xfinity Series and 13th in 2019 in the Truck Series. Again, like with Clements, I think Snider is somewhat risky, but the potential and upside are there for a good GPP play. Snider will most likely go overlooked with game log watchers.

Justin Haley ($8,700)

Starting Position: 11th

Haley has been having a roller-coaster season in 2021, but he does have nine top 10’s in 14 races this season. Last season at Pocono, Haley did not have a great race when he finished 23rd. In 2019 Haley finished 9th at his first Pocono race. I would love to find some better options at a lower price in this tier, but the reality is the bottom of the mid-tier is not good and I don’t want to touch them (outside of the next driver). I will probably have some exposure to Haley, but he is not a priority. Haley knows he will be driving for Kaulig in the Cup Series in 2022. This news has him more relaxed which could help him perform better and put his mind at ease.

Other Options: Santino Ferrucci ($8,500 – P26), Michael Annett ($8,000 – P8)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

1. Jeffry Earnhardt ($5,600) – P38: Earnhardt is the top FPTS/$ play on this slate. Along with #2 on the list, Earnhardt is the optimal play in this tier according to the optimizer.
2. Carson Ware ($5,000) – P32: Ware has not driven an Xfinity car in 2021, but did have three races last season where he finished top 20 twice. On Sunday Ware will be in the #17 that J.J. Yeley and Cody Ware (Carson’s Brother) have driven to 13 top 25’s in 15 races.
3. Brett Moffitt ($6,700) – P17: Moffitt is underpriced in my opinion, but it is what it is and we will just take advantage of this mispricing. Last season in this same car Moffitt started P18 and finished 7th. I expect a similar outcome on Sunday. Moffitt has ten finishes of 17th or better this season and in 3 of the 5 times, he didn’t finish that high he either wrecked or had a mechanical issue.
4. Jade Buford ($5,900) – P29: Buford had his string of four straight top 20’s snapped last week when he wrecked out early. I love the potential place differential upside for Buford on Sunday for his cheap price tag.
5. Colby Howard ($5,200) – P37: Howard, like Earnhardt, starts far enough back that he can’t really hurt you. In his last seven races, Howard has finished top 30 in all seven and has one top 20 in that span as well.
6. Loris Hezemans ($4,600) – P39: Cheap and starts far enough back that he can’t hurt. I think a top 35 is the best we can hope for but he makes fitting three top-tier drivers super easy.
7. Joey Gase ($5,400) – P40: I am sure you are starting to see a trend here, we want the cheap guys who start towards the back. Gase is not my favorite in this tier, but he starts dead last and can only go up from here
8. Ryan Sieg ($6,900) – P12: Sieg is probably the most talented driver with the best car (next to Moffitt) in this tier and even though he starts high in the field there is some upside.

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