NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Xfinity Series Martinsville 10/30

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for the Xfinity series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then, you know the drill, but welcome if you are new to WinDaily Sports or my NASCAR content! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles. Since they are the only site with contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

Running laps on the paperclip

This week, like with the Truck Series and Cup Series, the Xfinity Series has their last race before the season finale next weekend in Phoenix. Austin Cindric and AJ Allmendinger are all but locked in for the finale on points, but that doesn’t mean they won’t be trying to earn the win to guarantee their spot. As we saw last week, there are plenty of non-playoff drivers who can throw a wrench in things like Ty Gibbs did last week.

Earlier this season at Martinsville, Josh Berry ($10,800 – P29) led the most laps and won his first-ever Xfinity race. I don’t believe he will be a threat to win this one in the #31 for Josh Anderson instead of the #8 JRM car he won with earlier this season. Berry is still a solid place differential play but at his salary, I believe there are better options than him for this race. I also think Berry will carry a higher ownership number than he should for this race which also has me looking elsewhere.

Drivers who run up front, stay up front

At the first race from Martinsville this season we saw a lot of drivers who started towards the front stay there all day. In that race, seven drivers who started in the top 10 would finish there and four different drivers led 28 or more laps and they all finished inside the top seven. Five drivers led double-digit laps and all five finished in the top seven as well. Basically what I am saying is we want the drivers who start near the front in our lineups and look for maybe one or two place differential plays.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier

Harrison Burton ($10,300)

Starting Position: 10th

Burton is one of the drivers who need to win this race to get into the Championship four next week, which he has done at this track before. Last season at this race, Harrison won and led 81 laps after starting right where he starts on Saturday, tenth. Earlier this season at Martinsville, Burton started on the pole but ended up finishing 7th and leading 52 laps. Value in this field is not deep and I don’t feel like we can pay up for both Gibbs and Cindric (more on them to come) and get good value in the rest of our lineups but the extra $1K we can save using Burton will definitely help.

Noah Gragson ($10,500)

Starting Position: 9th

Gragson is another driver who likely needs to win to move into the Championship four even though he is currently sitting in fourth place. Martinsville is one of Gragson’s best tracks with an average finish of 2.5 here in two races. Earlier this season Gragson led 12 laps and finished 2nd behind Berry. Gragson is rolling right now with nine top 10’s in his last twelve races and hasn’t finished lower than 12 in any race (outside of the two races he wrecked). Gragson is actually my pick to win this race and clinch his spot in the final next week.

Daniel Hemric ($10,000)

Starting Position: 7th

Hemric is having a career year, but he may need to win this race to move into the Championship 4, which he has still never done. Depending on what drivers like Harrison Burton and Gragson do, he could point his way in. I think we will see a strategy that puts the 18 car towards the front at the end of this race, which could end tragically or end with him scoring a top 5. Earlier this season, Hemric finished 3rd here at Martinsville, his only career Xfinity race here. It’s a very VERY small sample size, but Hemric is an experienced driver and in excellent equipment. There is a downside to Hemric, even though he projects as the 4th highest scoring driver, he also projects as the second-highest owned (our next entry projects as the highest). I will still have some exposure to Hemric, but I will limit it to no more than 50%.

Austin Cindric ($11,200)

Starting Position: 1st

I am liking the builds I can make pairing Cindric with one of the two drivers above. Cindric starts on the pole and I think he gets out early and leads a good portion of the beginning of this race. Even after the competition caution, I think Cindric retains the lead and will be hard to pass. There is some risk from Cindric here without a top 5 on his record but you could look at it as he is due for one here. Gragson is my pick to win, but Cindric will be in the top 3 and clinch his spot in the Championship 4.

Other Options: Ty Gibbs ($11,500 – P2): Like last week, I do like using Gibbs this week but his salary is what makes me not put him higher in this tier. I will probably have some exposure to him but not as much as I would like. Brandon Jones ($9,200 – P8): Jones has performed well here in his career and is cheaper than he should be. A top 5 is possible, but a top 10 is probably more likely. Justin Allgaier ($9,700 – P5): Another driver who is seemingly a lock for a top 10, and could easily win this race. I expect Allgaier to be popular though.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Riley Herbst ($8,000)

Starting Position: 16th

Last season at this race, Herbst had a great race after starting 24th he would finish in 6th. Earlier this season though, Herbst did not have an incident-free race and he ended up finishing 29th two laps down. Herbst is coming off back-to-back top 15 finishes and has five top 15’s including two top 5’s in his last eight races. Herbst has had an up and down season and it seems like right now is an up for Herbst. I think Herbst comes home with a top 10 on Saturday night.

Jeb Burton ($8,600)

Starting Position: 15th

Burton has two finishes of 11th or better in both his races here, including a fourth-place finish in this race last season. Over his last nine races, Burton has two top 5’s, three top 10’s, and only one finish lower than 13th (not including his wreck at Vegas). Ownership on Burton is usually low, and Saturday night should be no different. At this price and with people potentially stacking the top-tier drivers, Burton should go overlooked and could be a great low-owned play.

Michael Annett ($7,800)

Starting Position: 6th

Annett has only run two races at Martinsville in his career, but he has been great in both. Last season at this race, Annett started 11th and finished 8th. Earlier this season, Annett started 10th and finished 10th. I am under the impression people will be scared off of Annett because of his starting position, but he constantly runs inside the top 10 weekly and has back-to-back top 10 finishes. Annett was finishing top 10 almost weekly before his leg injury, and I think he seems to be back to where he was and is healthy finally.

Other Options: Brandon Brown ($7,000 – P17), Justin Haley ($8,800 – P4), Preston Pardus ($8,400 – P38), Jeremy Clements ($7,400 – P18)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

1. JJ Yeley ($6,600) – P28: Yeley is too cheap for the upside he has in this race, he is an experienced driver who knows his way around Martinsville. As long as he can keep the 17 out of any wrecks, he is a top 20 car.
2. Stephen Leicht ($5,400) – P37: Leicht has never run an Xfinity race here, but he is an experienced driver who has some limited upside. He is cheap and starts near the back of the field so he can’t hurt you too bad. If he can avoid carnage and be around at the end Leicht could pick up a top 25.
3. Colin Garrett ($6,100) – P30: Garrett is a good driver in pretty solid equipment this week. I am not expecting a huge day, but a top 20 is definitely a possibility on Saturday.
4. Jade Buford ($6,400) – P31: Buford has burnt us of late, but he finished 19th here earlier this season. I am hopefully this team has a clean race and we can get another top 20 finish from the 48 car.
5. Joe Graf Jr. ($4,600) – P32: Graf has had two completely different races in his career at Martinsville. At this race last season, Graf finished 21st and had a monster fantasy day. Earlier in 2021 though, Graf wrecked with 70 laps to go and finished 38th. Graf has run top 30 in four straight races and that is pretty much all we need from him at this price to make value.
6. Tommy Joe Martins ($5,600) – P19: Martins is a risky GPP play on Saturday, but there is a good shot he performs well here. In the second half of 2021, Martins has been a mid teens to low twenties driver and at Martinsville I expect a similar result. Last fall at this race, Martins finished 16th so that is the kind of upside we can expect from him here.
7. Matt Mills ($5,100) – P35: Mills has been running some good races of late and starts far enough back that all he really needs is a top 30 to make value. He also helps get the drivers with those big price tags in your lineups.

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