NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Xfinity Series Kansas 10/23

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for the Xfinity series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then, you know the drill, but welcome if you are new to WinDaily Sports or my NASCAR content! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles. Since they are the only site with contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

…And Toto too?

We ARE in Kansas this week but there won’t be any ruby red slippers, just some good old-fashioned black Goodyear tires! Kansas is a similar track to what we had at Texas last week, a 1.5-mile traditional oval with low tire wear. Also like Texas, track position is important so outside of the value plays we will look at drivers starting in or around the top 15.

Last season at this race only four drivers starting outside the top 10 finished in the top 10 at this race. The two drivers who started at the front (Gragson and Cindric) had their days end early in a big wreck on lap 16 or we could have had 8 of 10 who started in the top finish there. There are a few drivers starting towards the back that can give us some great value on Saturday, but your focus should be on getting the drivers who can finish top 10 in first and looking to fit the value plays in last.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier

Justin Haley ($9,100)

Starting Position: 6th

Haley has only run three times here in Kansas, but he has never finished lower than 7th. Last season at this race, Haley finished 4th, his career-best finish, and in the first race here in 2020 he finished 6th. Looking at similar tracks, Haley has five top ten’s in six Texas races and he has four top 10’s in six Las Vegas races. On Saturday I see Haley as a top 5 driver who has the potential for the win.

Justin Allgaier ($10,500)

Starting Position: 3rd

Allgaier is another driver who could win this race on Saturday, which would be his first at this track. Even though he has never won here, Allgaier has exceptional career numbers here. In 11 career races at Kansas, Allgaier only finished lower than 14th once (wrecked in 2018) and he has eight top 10’s. Allgaier, like Haley, has great finishes at similar tracks, averaging a top 10 at both Michigan and Las Vegas in his career. Also like Haley, I see Allgaier as a top 5 finisher here on Saturday with the potential to win.

Daniel Hemric ($9,500)

Starting Position: 1st

In 2018, Hemric led 128 laps from the pole in this race but ended up finishing second. Hemric is still looking for his first career win and I think this week it finally happens. Including that race in 2018, Hemric has three top 10’s and two top 5’s (both second-place finishes). Hemric is risky since he is on the pole for this race, but he is clicking on all cylinders right now. Coming into this race Hemric has four straight top 5’s and has led at least 17 laps in five of the last seven races.

Other Options: Brandon Jones ($9,300 – P9) – Jones won back-to-back races here from 2019-20 and has four top 10’s in six career races. Ty Gibbs ($11,200 – P10) – Gibbs has the best place differential upside in this tier. I think he scores high. I prefer my builds without him, but I will probably have him in at least one lineup. AJ Allmendinger ($10,200 – P5)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Garrett Smithley ($7,400)

Starting Position: 39th

Earlier I said there were a few drivers who have place differential upside and here is one of them. Smithley is replacing Carson Ware in the #17 this week which has been RWR’s best car in 2021. When you combine the upside (top 20) with the price, Smithley is the top play in this tier. Smithley has run three races in this car in 2021 and he has not finished lower than 25th. Two of the three races were at similar track types (Texas, Las Vegas) and Smithley finished 24th and 25th. If Smithley can avoid any potential carnage he could easily bring this car home with a top 20 and make him a lock for the optimal lineup.

Brandon Brown ($7,800)

Starting Position: 23rd

Brown has been a good driver at Kansas in his career, especially over his last three races. After finishing 18th in 2019, Brown came back to Kansas in 2020 and had two finishes in the top 15 (11th and 13th). With the way pricing is on this slate, we can easily slot in two mid-tier drivers with our three top-tier drivers and Brown is someone that needs to be considered for those types of builds. Brown is probably a top 15 driver with top 10 upside if things work out in his favor.

Jade Buford ($7,300)

Starting Position: 35th

Buford has never raced at Kansas, but he has raced at similar tracks and done well. Earlier this season at Michigan (the most similar track to Kansas) Buford managed to finish 9th. Buford is not going to dominate this race and he might not even finish top 20 but you are not rostering him for that. You are using Buford in your lineups as a pure place differential play for a cheap price.

Other Options: Riley Herbst ($8,900 – P13): It was a tale of two races here for Herbst in 2020. In the first Kansas race, Herbst had a strong showing and finished 9th. Unfortunately when they came back later in the year he wrecked with 28 laps to go and finished 30th. I think Herbst is a top 10 driver this week. Brett Moffitt ($8,700 – P16): Moffitt had the reverse happen to him of what happened to Herbst. In 2020, Moffitt had an oil leak and was forced out of the first Kansas race after only 91 laps. But in the fall, Moffitt came back and finished 7th. Moffitt projects as a top 15 car on Saturday. Michael Annett ($7,600 – P8): After wrecking on the opening lap in 2018 here, Annett has been money at this track since. In three races from 2019-20, Annett has finished 4th and 8th twice. I really like Annett’s chances at a third straight top 10. He will come in at extremely low ownership on the process.

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

1. Joe Graf Jr. ($4,700) – P30: Graf is a capable driver who, if his car holds up, can come home with a good day in the top 25. At his low price you don’t need much from Graf and he will open up the salary needed to stack the top tier drivers we want
2. Jeremy Clements ($6,800) – P19: After a rough start to his career at Kansas, Clements has figured out how to perfrom well here. In four starts here sine 2018, Clements has two top 10’s and finished top 15 in all four races.
3. Matt Mills ($5,200) – P31: Mills track history is outstanding (all things considered) and he is consistently a mid-20’s driver here. In three races at Kansas, Mills has finishes of 20th, 26th, and 25th. I expect much of the same from Mills on Saturday. His low price and starting position makes for great value on this slate.
4. David Starr ($5,300) – P33: Like with Mills before him, Starr is a consistent mid-20’s to high teens driver at Kansas. Last season here, Starr finished 24th in both races and in the previous two races he had finishes of 17th and 23rd. If Starr can keep this car on the track I view him as a low 20’s driver on Saturday.
5. Bayley Currey ($6,500) – P22: Currey finished 23rd and 18th here in 2020, and I expect to finish right around this position again. Currey is risky because of his price and starting positiong but he makes for a good GPP pivot off what I expect to be the higher owned cheaper plays in this tier.
6. Gray Gaulding ($6,400) – P40: Gaulding starts last, so he has some good upside. I don’t love the price, but I get it. Gaulding is a much more capable driver than most who start 40th in this series. I think Gaulding will carry decent ownership, so that is why he isn’t higher up this list.

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