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Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for the Truck series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then, you know the drill, but welcome if you are new to WinDaily Sports or my NASCAR content! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.
Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site with contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.
After a fun day at Darlington on Saturday, we are back for a Sunday double dip with the Truck Series kicking it all off. Unlike in the Xfinity Series race we aren’t building Daytona-Esque lineups with at least 5 place differential plays. Since this is a playoff race the top drivers in the series are all starting inside the top 10.
Looking at the projections for Sunday’s race, nine of the top 10 drivers in projected points start inside the top 12 (Parker Kligerman P34 is the only exception). Saturday was the exact reverse of this with all of the top 5 in projected points starting from P14 and back. I mentioned in Discord that it would be a different strategy than we saw on Saturday and that is we aren’t loading up on PD plays, but instead, we are looking to find drivers who will lead laps and finish top 5 with maybe 1-2 place differential plays. This race is actually longer than the Xfinity was (183 laps to 147) so that is also why we are looking for dominator points because of the increase in them for this race.
As with every week, each tier of drivers is listed in order of preference
NASCAR DFS: Dominators
John Hunter Nemechek ($11,300)
Starting Position: 6th
This is pretty much a broken record in 2021, but John Hunter Nemechek is the top play on this slate, again. It is hard to deny Nemechek with the season he has had with five wins, nine top 5’s, and twelve top 10’s in just 16 races. Nemechek has only raced in the Truck Series at Darlington once and that was this season where he led 65 of 147 laps but ended up finishing 8th. Coming into Sunday Nemechek is the favorite to win this race and championship and he could easily lead 70-80 laps and win this race.
Nemechek is all but a lock for a top 5 and some dominator points and even though he will be the highest owned driver I feel he is a must-play because he should also be the highest-scoring driver and it is nearly impossible to get a takedown in NASCAR without that driver.
Sheldon Creed ($10,900)
Starting Position: 1st
Well, if it’s not JHN at that top of the list it’s usually this man. Creed won the title in 2020 and is looking like he will be tough to beat out for it this season. Creed led 82 laps at this race last season but finished 18th after some late-race miscues, but he made up for it earlier this season. Back in May of this year, Creed only led 7 laps, but he led the most important one and won the race. Nemechek should dominate the middle or end of this race, but early on Creed is the man to get those dominator points and then be around the front at the end of the race.
Ben Rhodes ($9,400)
Starting Position: 3rd
If we want to have a roster that could have the two best plays in the race we need to find some “value” in this top tier and Ben Rhodes is that man. Earlier this season, Rhodes finished second to Creed and led 34 laps. In two races here at Darlington, Rhodes has a win and that second-place finish from earlier this season. I know it’s a small sample size, but Darlington is a tough track so if a driver seems to have a hang of how to drive here and is in equipment as good as Rhodes’s is (ThorSport) he is someone you need to consider.
Parker Kligerman ($9,600)
Starting Position: 34th
If you are unsure of playing three drivers starting in the top 6 in your lineup and want a safer play, who oddly isn’t projected to be over 30% owned (24 pOwn%) then Kligerman is your guy. Kligerman was one of 16 trucks that didn’t finish the race here earlier this season but in his last race here he did finish 14th. I don’t know how much Kligerman I will have but he is definitely a solid, safe upside play.
Other Options: Zane Smith ($10,600 – P10): Smith is projected as one of the lowest owned drivers in the top tier (pOwn% – 18%), Austin Hill ($10,300 – P7), Todd Gilliland ($9,900 – P8), Grant Enfinger ($10,100 – P12): Enfinger is expensive, but projects for sub 10% ownership.
NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier
Derek Kraus ($7,700)
Starting Position: 18th
Kraus had early issues that put him laps down early in the spring race here, but in 2020 he had a much better day at Darlington. In that 2020 race, Kraus came home with a 2nd place finish but only led 1 lap. Kraus projects for low 20’s ownership but I actually expect him to be under 20% since he typically is someone who gets overlooked. There are also three other drivers around Kraus’s price that I feel people will flock to in Greenfield, Davis, and Anderson for the presumed safety of their starting positions. Those three, while do offer potential place differential points, do not have the quality equipment and crew that Kraus has.
Tanner Gray ($7,400)
Starting Position: 22nd
Gray hasn’t been successful at Darlington, but he also wasn’t as experienced and wasn’t driving as well as he is currently. Over his last six races, Gray has five top 20’s and one top 10. The only poor finish for Gray was that ridiculous dirt race in Knoxville earlier this season. I see Gray as a low-owned high teens driver on Sunday.
Dylan Lupton ($7,600)
Starting Position: 11th
I expect Lupton to go practically unowned because of where he is starting. If you are playing cash games or SE then maybe he isn’t worth the risk, but he is in the KBM #51 so his equipment is top of the line. Lupton isn’t some young kid making his first start in a top series and he does have one Darlington race under his belt (Xfinity Series – 2017). I plan on having some exposure to Lupton, just not a lot as I am typically a SE player.
Other Options: Stewart Friesen ($8,300 – P4), Josh Berry ($8,700 – P20): expected to be sub 15% owned, Berry makes for a decent pivot off Kligerman, Chandler Smith ($8,900 – P9)
NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings
- Tyler Hill ($5,800) – P21: Since the typical PD plays are priced WAY up, Hill is a solid driver who could pull out a top 20
- Ryan Truex ($4,900) – P19: Truex has only one finish outside the top 20 since May 1st (10 races) and he is super cheap which helps fit the three dominators you need.
- Austin Wayne Self ($5,500) – P16: Self has quietly been very consistent this season. In 16 races this season, Self has only 3 finishes lower than 20th. I expect Self to finish mid to high teens and make value easily.
- Lawless Alan ($6,300) – P31: One of the better place differential plays on this slate because of price. Alan has only run 5 races this season, but he has finished all of them. Can’t ask for much more for this salary.
- Tate Fogleman ($4,600) – P24: Fogleman is dirt cheap and just needs to finish right around where he starts to make value. Seems very doable.
- Danny Bohn ($5,200) – P27: Bohn is another driver who has some PD upside for cheap.
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