NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series from New Hampshire 8/2/20

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series breakdown for Sunday’s race from New Hampshire Motor Speedway!

NASCAR gave the teams a nice break to re-energize after a hectic couple of months since the return to racing. New Hampshire is a flat 1-mile track that races similarly to Phoenix. We have 301 laps here so that means there are plenty of dominator points available, 225.75 to be exact, so we will want to find the drivers who can lead this race.

There are a few drivers who I think can dominate this race, and we will get into them shortly. If you are in discord you saw me mention that Joey Logano ($9,800) tested at New Hampshire earlier this year in preparation for the March Phoenix race. Logano won at Phoenix and led 60 laps in the process. Logano hasn’t had much success here, but with some data to go on Logano could have a great car early on since we have no practice before this race

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Kevin Harvick ($11,600)

Starting Position: 7th

Harvick has 2 wins in his last 4 races at NHMS and as he has been all season since the restart, is a threat to win, but I am not as high on Harvick as I have been lately. I don’t love this price, but it won’t stop me from having some Harvick exposure this weekend. It will take a dominating performance of leading over 100 laps and a win to make value and I am not confident he does that. I will probably lower my exposure from around 50% to something in the 10% range.

Martin Truex Jr. ($10,700)

Starting Position: 11th

Truex is my favorite play this week. He offers the best of everything we are looking for in a driver, he has place differential upside, dominator potential, and has a great track history. New Hampshire is a track that history matters because this track hasn’t changed over time so how a driver has done here is important. Truex has five straight top 10 finishes here and has led 112 laps or more in 4 of his last 6 races here. It’s easy to see why Truex is my favorite play.

Christopher Bell ($10,100)

Starting Position: 35th

We are back to an “overpriced” Christopher Bell race this weekend, but I don’t mind paying the price because I think he pays it off. Bell has won twice here in the Xfinity series, and like I said with Truex, track history matters. While it was the Xfinity Series, it still means that Bell knows how to handle this track and I think he can definitely come away with a top 10 here. Matt DiBenedetto ($8,300) drover the #95 Toyota to a top 10 here last year and I see no reason (other than a wreck) keeping Bell from finishing there on Sunday.

Other Options: Denny Hamlin ($10,400) – I’m fading him, he hasn’t done well with the package they run here, but I can see why you’d play him. Joey Logano ($9,800)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Kyle Busch ($9,300)

Starting Position: 5th

Yes, we can play Kyle Busch again, and he’s cheap this week. Game log watchers will see his recent troubles and fade him, but those of us who know, know he is going to have a good day on Sunday. New Hampshire has been a very good track for Busch. Kyle has five top 10 finishes in his last 6 here (the 6th was a 12th place finish) including a win in 2017 where he led 187 laps. Busch has led at least 95 laps in four of his last six races here as well. It seems like Busch was having trouble figuring out the high-downforce package, but they aren’t running that at NHMS, so we should be safe playing him.

Chase Elliott ($9,100)

Starting Position: 3rd

Here is another driver I think could dominate this race, at least the early part of it. Elliott is extremely underpriced and will probably be one of, if not, the highest owned drivers this week. I don’t think Almirola keeps the lead off the start, and that’s where Elliott could take off to the lead. Chase doesn’t have the great track history we look for here, but at this price, he is worth taking a risk.

Matt Kenseth ($7,600)

Starting Position: 21st

Matt Kenseth has been an absolute stud at Loudon over his career dating back to 2013. In 11 races since then, Kenseth has nice top 10 finishes including 3 wins. Kenseth has a rough start to his return to the track after his retirement after the 2018 season. Kenseth has had some good finishes of late and at this price, a top 15 will suffice to make value.

Other Options: Erik Jones ($8,900), Matt DiBenedetto ($8,300), Kurt Busch ($7,700)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

The value tier is deep this week, starting with both Austin and Ty Dillon ($7,400 & $5,700 respectively). I don’t love the price for Austin, but he has been consistently good since the return to racing and I could easily see him pick up 10-12 place differential points and possibly hit that 5x value marker we look for. Ty is priced right at $5,700 for starting 25th, but he does have a decent record here. Dillon has finished as high as 16th (twice) and has finished no lower than 23rd.

1. Austin Dillon ($7,400 – P23)
2. Ty Dillon ($5,700 – P25)
3. Ryan Newman ($6,600 – P22)
4. John H. Nemechek ($7,000 – P36)
5. Daniel Suarez ($5,900 – P37)
6. Ricky Stenhouse ($6,800 P31)
7. Corey Lajoie ($6,200 – P33)

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