Chris Bouchard 
Finally had a good week of DFS in Texas as Kevin Harvick took care of business and punched his ticket to the final 4 in Miami. This week we head to the ISM Raceway in Phoenix to fill the last 2 spots in the playoff chase. Kyle Busch and Joey Logano have the advantage, but one wrong move on the track or in the pits can change that. Chase Elliott is in a major slump and is in a must win situation. I am interested to see how he practices and qualifies, because he could be an interesting DFS play.
Phoenix is a 1 mile track that opened in 1964. Since 2005 they have held 2 races a year which are currently the TicketGuardian500 and Bluegreen Vacations500. Harvick is the dominator here with 9 wins and 16 top 5 finishes. He will nearly be impossible to fade if he qualifies on top. Other drivers have also had success here like Jimmie Johnson (4 wins – None since 2009), Kyle Busch (3 wins – Including the last two at this track), and Ryan Newman (2 wins)
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DFS this week will be very specific for me with the 5 drivers racing for the last 2 spots dominating my lineups. The cream will rise to the top and I can’t imagine any of those five not being in the top 10 unless they get caught up in a wreck. For me, Elliott will be the wild card. I will be over owned on him if he qualifies and practices well, and under owned or will fade him completely if he does not.
Regarding Harvick and Truex Jr. if they get the pole I will probably be 50% or more, otherwise I most likely will play them more as a GPP pivot. Contests will be won based on how the value performs. I have five drivers I will be focusing on.
- Ryan Newman – I love the fact that he has won here before and has driven very well the last 2 weeks. Outside of the Hollywood Casino 500 disaster, he has averaged 54 DK points over his last 3 finishes and is only $7,600 this week.
- Jimmie Johnson – He is a legend and at $7,900 I always have to give him a look. He has finished 34th or worse the last 3 weeks, but outside of those, he has finished 10th, 8th 9th, 11th, and 11th. He has a top 10 in him and possibly a top 5 if he gets some breaks.
- Aric Almirola – He has back to back 4th place finishes at this track his last 2 races, and he has proven week after week he is a top driver qualifying well and always in the mix including last week’s 2nd place finish. He just has to stay out of trouble and another top 5 is very possible.
- Austin Dillon – At $6,800 he is a tremendous value. He has been consistent and if everything goes right, he has serious top 10 potential. His value goes up if he qualifies outside the top 20 as long as he practices ok. He finished 8th in this race last year.
- Daniel Suarez – After a rough go of it lately, he finished 3rd last week and I think he can bring that momentum to Phoenix. I assume he will qualify in the 10-15 range and I love his top 5 potential. His last 3 finishes of 19th, 21st, and 36th here may also keep his ownership down.
Below are my pre Practice/Qualifying rankings. I will update my rankings and give my driver usage for DFS once qualifying is official.
NASCAR DFS High-Priced
- Kevin Harvick $11,500
- Kyle Busch $11,900
- Kyle Larson $9,600
Mid-Tier
- Ryan Newman $7,600
- Jimmie Johnson $7,900
- Aric Almirola $8,100
Value Plays
- Daniel Suarez $7,200
- Austin Dillon $6,800
- Rickie Stenhouse Jr. $6,600
I was also looking at DraftKings’ and FanDuel’s sportsbooks and FanDuel has the best odd by far. There are 4 plays that I think have great value with Ryan Newman at 180/1 being ridiculous.
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