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Ring the bell and get ready for the N.Y. Prop Exchange Week 9! The season’s flying by! Week 8 left much to be desired. It started off great when we hit the Kirk Cousins prop on TNF easily, and then it went steadily downhill from there. Chris Carson had 86 of the needed 92 rushing yards in the first half and did not get it done for us. Then, John Brown had 55 of his 69 needed yards in the first half and proceeded to hang a zero the rest of the way. Don’t beat yourself about results like that. Today gives us another opportunity to capitalize on a very advantageous risk reward ratio. Play smart, and eliminate the big loss as an outcome.
If you can rid yourself of big losses, and relegate your game to only three of the four outcomes (Small win, small loss & big win) you will find yourself on a sure climb to profitability. I’m never going to tilt and chase unrealistic expectations on my own small sample. Remember, past performance is no indication of future success. I’ll be covering these types of topics on my new short form podcast, THE PROFITCAST (Link to episode 1-3 below)!
If you can relegate your game to only three of the four outcomes (Small win, small loss & big win) you will find yourself on a sure climb to profitability. I’m never going to tilt and chase unrealistic expectations on my own small sample. Remember, past performance is no indication of future success. I’ll be covering these types of topics on my new short form podcast, THE PROFITCAST (Link to episode 1 & 2 below)!
Make sure you don’t miss a thing throughout the week by checking my author page periodically https://windailysports.com/author/mlbmovingavg/
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Episode 1-3:
N.Y. Prop Exchange Week 9
Derek Carr, QB Oakland Raiders
Breakdown Prop Exchange Week 9
Derek Carr is quietly having a decent season for the Raiders, having faced some tough competition so far in MIN, CHI, GB & IND. Though only averaging 242 passing yards per game, Carr only has four INTs. He’s also in the NFL’s top five for completion percentage (72.1%) and QBR (104.6), so there’s a decent base of positive information for this prop play.
The OAK quarterback threw for at least 285 passing yards in each of the last two games, and I expect that to continue against a porous Lion pass defense. Let’s take a look at the DET ranks against the pass:
- Total Plays Allowed : 19th
- Pass Yards Allowed : 25th
- Pass Attempts Allowed : 22nd
- Completions Allowed : 15th
When we zoom in on the DET defense, it doesn’t get any prettier. The Lions have yet to have a QB throw for less than 259 yards, and they allow over 300 passing yards a game on average. The stars are aligned for us to take down this pretty reasonable prop play. We love getting plus odds for a play we perceive as a favorite (true value).
I always like to examine the board to see if it’s worth taking this bet up the ladder:
Given the fact the odds are not really shifting as production increases, I’d say to take this wager responsibly at Over 266.5 PaYds (+102) and leave it there.
Let’s get it.
General Risk Strategy
I often get questions about betting strategy. It all starts with proactively determining how much I’m going to bet and then working backwards when applying that to my plays on a percent basis.
My daily allotted risk (R) shifts with performance. I have found that reducing bets during down times helps greatly in protecting capital. To be more specific, my standard is a risk of R=1% total stack. After a winning day it goes to 1.5%, and caps at a max 2% after two wins in a row. I do the opposite as well. I remain at 1% if there are two losing days, and reduce to a capped minimum of 0.5% for the third.
Daily Betting Strategies
I’d like to share a few of my fallback plans on playing strategy in case I don’t get to a specific plan on a given night. If a bet is at or close to even, bet it straight. We want to avoid pairing action as much as possible. Sometimes the odds make this unavoidable. Whenever I have two heavy favorite picks, I will pair them. If I have three favorites, I play a small ABC F5ML parlay, and then play all three F5RLs straight, but of course it always depends on the specific odds that day. I do not like to pay any juice beyond -200. I would never play those straight. We must pair, or fade. Any team can win on any day.
Whenever I have four picks that come with juice, I’m usually going to play a Round Robin where 3 of 4 hits will guarantee a nice percentage profit, and all 4 is huge night on a relatively small risk. I also always take a small percentage of daily risk on a four game parlay.
If there are ever more than four plays, I try to compartmentalize the picks, and then follow one of the plans above. A good place to start is to play any underdogs straight and then either pair by length, or by time of day. It’s always a good idea to separate the later games on tickets to allow for chances to hedge and guarantee profit.
Management
Tailor your game to your own account and expectations. I bet small relative to stack, and bet smart. If you can’t make money with $100, what makes you think you’ll make money with $10,000?
I never risk more than 1% on any outcome, and never bet more than 2% on any given night. I scale those numbers down into losing streaks, and increase them again as the wins roll in.
N.Y. Prop Exchange Week 9
John L. prepares this article in his personal capacity. The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not reflect the views or opinions of Win Daily or any of the employees and/or executives of Win Daily. All data and information provided on this site is for informational purposes only. Win Daily makes no representations as to accuracy, completeness, currentness, suitability, or validity of any information on this site and will not be liable for any errors, omissions, or delays in this information or any losses, injuries, or damages arising from its display or use. All information is provided on an as-is basis.
As always, special thanks to https://fangraphs.com & https://pff.com for all the great statistical work that they do.
