mandrzeje@gmail.com 
Ring the bell and strap in for the N.Y. Prop Exchange Week 8.2! Week 7 turned out another green screen for us, hitting 2 of 3 featured prop plays including Jacobs and Fournette up the ladder. Today gives us another opportunity to capitalize on a very advantageous risk reward ratio. Play smart, and eliminate the big loss as an outcome. If you can relegate your game to only three of the four outcomes (Small win, small loss & big win) you will find yourself on a sure climb to profitability. I’m never going to tilt and chase unrealistic expectations on my own small sample. Remember, past performance is no indication of future success. I’ll be covering these types of topics on my new short form podcast, THE PROFITCAST (Link to episode 1 & 2 below)!
Make sure you don’t miss a thing throughout the week by checking my author page periodically https://windailysports.com/author/mlbmovingavg/
OF COURSE ALL THE GOLD MEMBERS KNOW YOU CAN GET ME ON THE WINDAILYSPORTS SLACK CHANNEL ANYTIME FOR MORE TAILORED HELP, INCLUDING ADVANCED RISK THEORY AND ACCESS TO MORE OF MY PERSONAL PLAYS.
CHECK OUT MY NEW 5 MINUTE POD TACKLING YOUR GAMBLING QUESTIONS, THE PROFITCAST!
Episode Two:
N.Y. Prop Exchange Week 8.2
John Brown, WR Buffalo Bills
Breakdown Prop Exchange Week 8.2
John Brown is the team snap leader, never having than less 82% usage in any single game, and his 87% on the year leads all offensive players beside Allen. Brown leads the team in targets (45), target share (22%) & has an excellent 73.3% conversion rate. He averages 7.5 targets per game, never having less than 5 looks and only having less than 5 grabs once. He has at least 69 receiving yards in all but that one game with only 4 catches. I love the even money on Brown for what is essentially his yardage floor, and we haven’t even highlighted the Eagles difficulty defending the pass.
Philly is currently 29th in pass attempts allowed, 28th in completions allowed, and 29th in passing yards. Let’s take a closer look to see if we want to play this up the ladder.
The Eagles have allowed 776 receiving yards and five TDs to opposing WRs in the last four games, and have especially been burned by the WR1 all season. Mclaurin, Julio Jones, Ridley, Marvin Jones, Devante Adams, Stefon Diggs, and Amari Cooper all went over 100 yards this season. I’m heavily considering a percentage of this play on that 96+ (+241) and even the 106+ (344).
Let’s get it.
General Risk Strategy
I often get questions about betting strategy. It all starts with proactively determining how much I’m going to bet and then working backwards when applying that to my plays on a percent basis.
My daily allotted risk (R) shifts with performance. I have found that reducing bets during down times helps greatly in protecting capital. To be more specific, my standard is a risk of R=1% total stack. After a winning day it goes to 1.5%, and caps at a max 2% after two wins in a row. I do the opposite as well. I remain at 1% if there are two losing days, and reduce to a capped minimum of 0.5% for the third.
Daily Betting Strategies
I’d like to share a few of my fallback plans on playing strategy in case I don’t get to a specific plan on a given night. If a bet is at or close to even, bet it straight. We want to avoid pairing action as much as possible. Sometimes the odds make this unavoidable. Whenever I have two heavy favorite picks, I will pair them. If I have three favorites, I play a small ABC F5ML parlay, and then play all three F5RLs straight, but of course it always depends on the specific odds that day. I do not like to pay any juice beyond -200. I would never play those straight. We must pair, or fade. Any team can win on any day.
Whenever I have four picks that come with juice, I’m usually going to play a Round Robin where 3 of 4 hits will guarantee a nice percentage profit, and all 4 is huge night on a relatively small risk. I also always take a small percentage of daily risk on a four game parlay.
If there are ever more than four plays, I try to compartmentalize the picks, and then follow one of the plans above. A good place to start is to play any underdogs straight and then either pair by length, or by time of day. It’s always a good idea to separate the later games on tickets to allow for chances to hedge and guarantee profit.
Management
Tailor your game to your own account and expectations. I bet small relative to stack, and bet smart. If you can’t make money with $100, what makes you think you’ll make money with $10,000?
I never risk more than 1% on any outcome, and never bet more than 2% on any given night. I scale those numbers down into losing streaks, and increase them again as the wins roll in.
N.Y. Prop Exchange Week 8.2
John L. prepares this article in his personal capacity. The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not reflect the views or opinions of Win Daily or any of the employees and/or executives of Win Daily. All data and information provided on this site is for informational purposes only. Win Daily makes no representations as to accuracy, completeness, currentness, suitability, or validity of any information on this site and will not be liable for any errors, omissions, or delays in this information or any losses, injuries, or damages arising from its display or use. All information is provided on an as-is basis.
As always, special thanks to https://fangraphs.com & https://pff.com for all the great statistical work that they do.
