N.Y. Prop Exchange Week 7

Ring the bell and strap in for the N.Y. Prop Exchange Week 7! To say we’ve picked up some serious momentum would be an understatement after smashing another ten bagger last week. That’s two weeks in a row we’ve had a ten to one come through! Most cappers might not take down a single (+1000) in a season, let alone two in a row! Today’s play is a bit more conservative and only for a single unit, but that’s one of my personal keys to sustaining profit in sport markets; Eliminate the big loss. If you can relegate your game to only three of the four outcomes (Small win, small loss & big win) you will find yourself on a sure climb to profitability. I’m not going to tilt and chase unrealistic expectations on my own small sample. Remember, past performance is no indication of future success.

Make sure you don’t miss a thing throughout the week by checking my author page periodically https://windailysports.com/author/mlbmovingavg/

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N.Y. Prop Exchange Week 7

Noah Fant, TE Denver Broncos

Breakdown

The NYPE program was flashing red when I ran the filters for this TNF game. KC has been atrocious at defending the TE position.

• 64 TE Tgts : Last place
• 10.7 TE Tgts/G : Last place
• 46 TE Rec : Last place
• 7.7 TE Rec/G : Last place
• 429 TE RecYds : 30th
• 71.5 TE RecYds/G : 30th

Fant has the lion’s share of playing time at TE, hovering around 69% for the year, and never being below 65% on any given week. Fant is also receiving 10% of the teams total target share in 2019, converting over 73% of those into catches. He hasn’t been a target magnet this year, but I tend to not let that bother me. The NFL has an incredible amount of variance as gameplans meet counter-gameplans. The KC pass defense is weak up the middle.

The main obstacle in hitting this prop should just be target share, which I think we will easily get in response to the Chief’s inability to defend the short pass to the TE position.

I am always 100% transparent in my moves, and have my own money on this Over 2.5 Rec prop. I’m also considering taking between 0.10u – 0.25u on the Over 5.5 Rec (+1306) for a chance at another tremendous risk/reward payoff, In this case a 0.10 play could yield well over the unit risked on the original wager.

General Risk Strategy

I often get questions about betting strategy. It all starts with proactively determining how much I’m going to bet and then working backwards when applying that to my plays on a percent basis.

My daily allotted risk (R) shifts with performance. I have found that reducing bets during down times helps greatly in protecting capital. To be more specific, my standard is a risk of R=1% total stack. After a winning day it goes to 1.5%, and caps at a max 2% after two wins in a row. I do the opposite as well. I remain at 1% if there are two losing days, and reduce to a capped minimum of 0.5% for the third.

Daily Betting Strategies

I’d like to share a few of my fallback plans on playing strategy in case I don’t get to a specific plan on a given night. If a bet is at or close to even, bet it straight. We want to avoid pairing action as much as possible. Sometimes the odds make this unavoidable. Whenever I have two heavy favorite picks, I will pair them. If I have three favorites, I play a small ABC F5ML parlay, and then play all three F5RLs straight, but of course it always depends on the specific odds that day. I do not like to pay any juice beyond -200. I would never play those straight. We must pair, or fade. Any team can win on any day.

Whenever I have four picks that come with juice, I’m usually going to play a Round Robin where 3 of 4 hits will guarantee a nice percentage profit, and all 4 is huge night on a relatively small risk. I also always take a small percentage of daily risk on a four game parlay.

If there are ever more than four plays, I try to compartmentalize the picks, and then follow one of the plans above. A good place to start is to play any underdogs straight and then either pair by length, or by time of day. It’s always a good idea to separate the later games on tickets to allow for chances to hedge and guarantee profit.

Tailor your game to your own account and expectations. I bet small relative to stack, and bet smart. If you can’t make money with $100, what makes you think you’ll make money with $10,000?

I never risk more than 1% on any outcome, and never bet more than 2% on any given night. I scale those numbers down into losing streaks, and increase them again as the wins roll in.

N.Y. Prop Exchange Week 7

John L. prepares this article in his personal capacity.  The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not reflect the views or opinions of Win Daily or any of the employees and/or executives of Win Daily.  All data and information provided on this site is for informational purposes only.  Win Daily makes no representations as to accuracy, completeness, currentness, suitability, or validity of any information on this site and will not be liable for any errors, omissions, or delays in this information or any losses, injuries, or damages arising from its display or use.  All information is provided on an as-is basis.

As always, special thanks to https://fangraphs.com & https://pff.com for all the great statistical work that they do.