N.Y. Prop Exchange Week 7.1

Ring the bell and strap in for the N.Y. Prop Exchange Week 7.1! To say we’ve picked up some serious momentum would be an understatement after smashing another ten bagger last week. That’s two weeks in a row we’ve had a ten to one come through! Most cappers might not take down a single (+1000) in a season, let alone two in a row! Today’s play is a bit more conservative and only for a single unit, but that’s one of my personal keys to sustaining profit in sport markets; Eliminate the big loss. If you can relegate your game to only three of the four outcomes (Small win, small loss & big win) you will find yourself on a sure climb to profitability. I’m not going to tilt and chase unrealistic expectations on my own small sample. Remember, past performance is no indication of future success.

**TNF Update: Unfortunate loss of a unit on N.Fant. The TE had a 73.5% conversion rate coming in, so he should’ve only needed five looks to get our 3 grabs. Well, we did get the expected volume spike (5 Tgt), and it still only resulted in a single catch. Such is life.**

Make sure you don’t miss a thing throughout the week by checking my author page periodically https://windailysports.com/author/mlbmovingavg/

OF COURSE ALL THE GOLD MEMBERS KNOW YOU CAN GET ME ON THE WINDAILYSPORTS SLACK CHANNEL ANYTIME FOR MORE TAILORED HELP, INCLUDING ADVANCED RISK THEORY AND ACCESS TO MORE OF MY PERSONAL PLAYS.

N.Y. Prop Exchange Week 7.1

Josh Jacobs, RB Oakland Raiders

Breakdown

I often highlight usage as a basis for my identification process and Jacobs checks all the boxes there. He has twice as many snaps as any other RB, and has over 70% of the team’s carries this season. Josh has at least 79 rushing yards in four of five games this year, and I expect that to continue. I think we’re getting incredible value here; A (+108) pay on an 80% occurrence. We can’t forget the game he just had against the staunch Bear defense, torching them for 26/123/2.

The Packers are the 8th worse defense in the league in terms of rush yards allowed, just over 107 per game. Considering they’re 16th in attempts against (21.3 per game), we see a picture of inefficiency emerge for GB. For the record, they’re allowing 4.9 yards per carry, also 7th worse in the NFL. The Raiders have been at their most effective when using Jacobs to control the pace of play, and even though the Packers are hobbled I doubt OAK will be taking that for granted.

I’m not crazy about the payout value up the ladder here, until we get to 106+ RuYd. For the sake of transparency, I do already have a full unit on the O79.5 RuYd, and I’m considering another. If I do decide to add to my unit position, a percentage consideration for O105.5 RuYd is absolutely in play. There’s still time before game time so feel free to hit me up on slack or on Twitter @MLBMovingAvg for the latest strategic plan.

General Risk Strategy

I often get questions about betting strategy. It all starts with proactively determining how much I’m going to bet and then working backwards when applying that to my plays on a percent basis.

My daily allotted risk (R) shifts with performance. I have found that reducing bets during down times helps greatly in protecting capital. To be more specific, my standard is a risk of R=1% total stack. After a winning day it goes to 1.5%, and caps at a max 2% after two wins in a row. I do the opposite as well. I remain at 1% if there are two losing days, and reduce to a capped minimum of 0.5% for the third.

Daily Betting Strategies

I’d like to share a few of my fallback plans on playing strategy in case I don’t get to a specific plan on a given night. If a bet is at or close to even, bet it straight. We want to avoid pairing action as much as possible. Sometimes the odds make this unavoidable. Whenever I have two heavy favorite picks, I will pair them. If I have three favorites, I play a small ABC F5ML parlay, and then play all three F5RLs straight, but of course it always depends on the specific odds that day. I do not like to pay any juice beyond -200. I would never play those straight. We must pair, or fade. Any team can win on any day.

Whenever I have four picks that come with juice, I’m usually going to play a Round Robin where 3 of 4 hits will guarantee a nice percentage profit, and all 4 is huge night on a relatively small risk. I also always take a small percentage of daily risk on a four game parlay.

If there are ever more than four plays, I try to compartmentalize the picks, and then follow one of the plans above. A good place to start is to play any underdogs straight and then either pair by length, or by time of day. It’s always a good idea to separate the later games on tickets to allow for chances to hedge and guarantee profit.

Tailor your game to your own account and expectations. I bet small relative to stack, and bet smart. If you can’t make money with $100, what makes you think you’ll make money with $10,000?

I never risk more than 1% on any outcome, and never bet more than 2% on any given night. I scale those numbers down into losing streaks, and increase them again as the wins roll in.

N.Y. Prop Exchange Week 7.1

John L. prepares this article in his personal capacity.  The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not reflect the views or opinions of Win Daily or any of the employees and/or executives of Win Daily.  All data and information provided on this site is for informational purposes only.  Win Daily makes no representations as to accuracy, completeness, currentness, suitability, or validity of any information on this site and will not be liable for any errors, omissions, or delays in this information or any losses, injuries, or damages arising from its display or use.  All information is provided on an as-is basis.

As always, special thanks to https://fangraphs.com & https://pff.com for all the great statistical work that they do.