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Ring the bell and strap in for the N.Y. Prop Exchange Week 6! Last week was what it’s all about! The short season thus far had been mostly flat until week 5, and we can only take what the market gives us. A week ago we identified Leveon Bell & Aaron Jones for receiving props, and even to maximize bets on Jones’ catches up the ladder (pictured below). The result could not have been better! That tremendous win has the season well into the black and should serve as another reminder as to the importance of risk management. You must stay in the game if you intend to profit from it. How many other cappers are hitting a (+400) & (+1039) in the same weekend? C’mon!
Make sure you don’t miss a thing throughout the week by checking my author page periodically https://windailysports.com/author/mlbmovingavg/
N.Y. Prop Exchange Week 6
Mike Evans, WR TB – Reception Props
Breakdown
Evans is coming off a bad game where he hung a zero getting followed around by Lattimore all day. That zero means absolutely nothing to me, except for the fact it has presented a nice buying opportunity for us. That matchup was poor, and is irrelevant when breaking down this week. Evans projects to go up against James Bradberry who’s giving up four inches and over twenty pounds to the big wideout.
Evans’ usage has remained at elite levels, taking 97% of the snaps last week and over 90% for the season. His three targets last week were a season low, but he has maintained a 22.9% target share for the season; Another elite tally. Let’s not forget that not only are the Bucs heading home, but Mike had racked up 30 targets over the three previous games.
The Panthers are 31st in plays allowed, 25th in attempts and 20th in completions allowed. They’re also dead last in completions allowed to WRs (79). The surface stats are there for some volume passing on Sunday.
Betting Prop Exchange Week 6
There are several ways to attack this play, and none are right or wrong, providing they fit into your written risk strategy. Remember, it’s the bet that pays that always feels like the right move in retrospect. Since we cannot control outcomes, we will control our own behavior. The first and most obvious strategy is to attack the plus odds and bet Over 5.5 Rec (+141) straight with a unit for a nice payoff.
Prop plays do provide opportunities to ”climb the ladder” and get exponential payouts for extra catches. Here’s a couple of examples of segmented wagers using these specific lines, and how it affects the final outcome.
The one thing they both have in common is locking a nice percentage gain (+20%) when we achieve the baseline of six grabs. Beyond that, my best advice is to play around with the payouts depending on your own risk tolerance. Get creative.
Before I determine my strategy, I need to finish combing the board for potential plays. Stay tuned.
General Risk Strategy
I often get questions about betting strategy and it all starts with proactively determining how much I’m going to bet and then working backwards when applying that to my plays on a percent basis.
My daily allotted risk (R) shifts with performance. I have found that reducing bets during down times helps greatly in protecting capital. To be more specific, my standard is a risk of R=1% total stack. After a winning day it goes to 1.5%, and caps at a max 2% after two wins in a row. I do the opposite as well. I remain at 1% if there are two losing days, and reduce to a capped minimum of 0.5% for the third.
Daily Betting Strategies
I’d like to share a few of my fallback plans on playing strategy in case I don’t get to a specific plan on a given night. If a bet is at or close to even, bet it straight. We want to avoid pairing action as much as possible. Sometimes the odds make this unavoidable. Whenever I have two heavy favorite picks, I will pair them. If I have three favorites, I play a small ABC F5ML parlay, and then play all three F5RLs straight, but of course it always depends on the specific odds that day. I do not like to pay any juice beyond -200. I would never play those straight. We must pair, or fade. Any team can win on any day.
Whenever I have four picks that come with juice, I’m usually going to play a Round Robin where 3 of 4 hits will guarantee a nice percentage profit, and all 4 is huge night on a relatively small risk. I also always take a small percentage of daily risk on a four game parlay.
If there are ever more than four plays, I try to compartmentalize the picks, and then follow one of the plans above. A good place to start is to play any underdogs straight and then either pair by length, or by time of day. It’s always a good idea to separate the later games on tickets to allow for chances to hedge and guarantee profit.
Tailor your game to your own account and expectations. I bet small relative to stack, and bet smart. If you can’t make money with $100, what makes you think you’ll make money with $10,000?
I never risk more than 1% on any outcome, and never bet more than 2% on any given night. I scale those numbers down into losing streaks, and increase them again as the wins roll in.
N.Y. Prop Exchange Week 6
John L. prepares this article in his personal capacity. The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not reflect the views or opinions of Win Daily or any of the employees and/or executives of Win Daily. All data and information provided on this site is for informational purposes only. Win Daily makes no representations as to accuracy, completeness, currentness, suitability, or validity of any information on this site and will not be liable for any errors, omissions, or delays in this information or any losses, injuries, or damages arising from its display or use. All information is provided on an as-is basis.
As always, special thanks to https://fangraphs.com & https://pff.com for all the great statistical work that they do.
