David Stowe 
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Did you miss me? Sure you did. I hate to have kept you all waiting for so long but I promise you it’ll be worth it. We have six games to choose from as of right now and one of the things I like to do when it comes to MLB is to target wind conditions when choosing hit props. It is by no means a guarantee but the slightest edges make a huge difference over the long term. I won’t melt your face with the math but a 10 mph wind can add or subtract over 30 feet to the distance of a fly ball. Enough chit-chat, here is my Monkey Knife Fight MLB Plays 4.8.
Monkey Knife Fight MLB Plays 4.8
More or Less: Cubs at Pirates
Both the Pirates and the Cubs have been at the bottom of the barrel when it comes to K-rate over the last few seasons in the MLB and they have started 2021 in the same way. Cubs have struck out 48 times in five games thus fast including striking out seven times against Tyler Anderson in his first start. Jake Arrieta is a little tougher, but with the Pirates sporting a 26.9% K-rate in the early part of this season I’m willing to take the chance. If you were so inclined to take the under on Jake I would not argue with you but I think he will throw his 85 pitches, get his 5-6 innings and get his 5 K’s and call it a day.
Monkey Knife Fight MLB Plays 4.8
Home Run Derby: Brewers at Cardinals
This is one of those situations where I’m using the wind to my advantage. It’s projected to be blowing out to left field at around 13mph and you are giving me guys like Yelich, Arenoda, Cain, and Arenado to choose from. Sign me up for that. I don’t get cute with my risk and I’ll stick with my 1.5x return for a home run but if you wanted 3x your investment for two homers I think you are in a reasonable spot to take advantage. I just think the return isn’t worth the risk for the 3 HR prop so stay away from that. I know the Brewers have started a little slow but I have all the confidence in the world that they’ll get on track.
Monkey Knife Fight MLB Plays 4.8
More or Less: Diamondbacks at Rockies
Gray had a freak incident in his first start against the Dodger and had to leave the game in the 6th with full body cramping. Even with the issue he fanned seven against one of the most prolific offenses in the MLB and now he gets a Diamondbacks team with a .631 OPS and they were just skunked 8-0 in their last game against Colorado. When it comes to Merrill Kelly…well…did I mention Colorado put up 8 runs on Arizona last night? Did I mention how many they scored the night before? Also 8 runs. Colorado is 4th in the MLB in slugging with a .465 and 9th best in strikeouts only striking out 8.83 per game on average. Kelly will be a target of mine down the road in DFS but he was smashed in his first outing against the Padres giving up three earned in four innings only striking out four batters and walking three batters. I do not expect a much different result against the Rockies in Colorado.
This is just a quick little article to get the blood flowing for everyone. Hope you enjoyed my Monkey Knife Fight MLB plays 4.8. Expect more articles with more selections as the data evens out over this long 162 game season. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
