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Monkey Knife Fight Plays 10.13 Tuesday Night Football.

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Quick Note: One thing that you will see is that I will try to stay away from high risk plays. Everyone loves the big win but the goal here is steady growth over the long term. It’s ok to take the occasional shot whenever it makes sense but that should not be your standard “go to” if you want to continue to grow your bankroll.

We have ourselves a rare treat today, Tuesday Night Football!!! I was going to cover MLB and NFL today but I really wanted to focus in on this interesting little contest that only 2020 could give us so lets dig in shall we?

Monkey Knife Fight Plays 10.13 Tuesday Night Football

More or Less (choose 3 of 4): 2.5x payout.

Alright, lets go ahead and get my bold take out of the way. I don’t think Henry gets close to the over. I’ve spent more time watching Derrick Henry film than any other player this year. Why? Well something seemed odd with how he was running and the more I watched the more I noticed that they have changed the run formations. They have largely spread the formations out more as well as reduced the amount of times they use a lead blocker, whether it be a fullback or bringing a tight end in to iso the first guy. Henry is a beast, but he’s not a Miles Sanders or Christian McCaffrey style back that can move laterally to make the first guy miss and this shows itself in this years 3.9 YPA compared to 5.1 last season and 4.9 in 2018. The rest of my choices are apparent off of that, A.J. Brown is going to get plenty of work with no Corey Davis or Adam Humphries even if conditioning is a bit of an issue, Diggs has caught at least six balls in 3-4 contests and Josh Allen has exceeded 311 yards in 3-4 and looks like a world-beater early on and Stefon Diggs is a big reason for that. If you disagree on Henry you still have the flexibility on this one to take the over and still payout if it doesn’t work but until I see the scheme revert back to 2019 I’m going to stay on the under.

More or Less (2 of 2): 3x payout.

Don’t worry folks, for those of you who feel differently than myself on Derrick Henry we’ll have a couple below that don’t include him. But My take on this one is the same as above. I expect this to be an air based game with Allen and Tannehill going shot for shot for four quarters and Stephon Diggs appears to have overtaken John Brown as the #1 and completely altered Josh Allen’s trajectory as a passer.

More or Less (2 of 2): 3x payout.

Same deal as above with Josh Allen, no less that 311 yards in 3 of 4 and the Titans allow 315 yards against the only “decent” passing team they’ve faced in the Jaguars and Ryan Tannehill is consistently disrespected on prop sites as if he didn’t have a season of showing that if he needed to put up huge games through the air he could. Bills are going to score pretty easily today, he has to throw to keep up. 244.5 is much to low a number given the potential game script and a 51.5 total where they are projected 3.5 point dogs.

Rapidfire: 3x payout

While I think that Josh Allen and by proxy Stefon Diggs will exceed raw yardage and overcome a 7.5 yard bonus relatively easily due to this being A.J. Brown’s first game back due to conditioning alone I think Ryan Tannehill chucks it as I mentioned above and he still has other weapons in Jonnu Smith and Kalif Raymond who more than filled in admirably in week 3 hauling in a all three of his targets for 118 yards. Buffalo has had issues over the last several seasons stopping the deep passing attack and this years sans the Jets in week one are still giving up 300 yards a game through the air. It may be a byproduct of an improved offense and the need for teams to throw to keep up but for the purpose of fantasy that is a good thing.

More or Less (3 of 3): 6x payout

I know you guys like something a little higher risk to take a swing at sometimes do here is a bonus 5th play that takes from previous prop plays for a nice little 6x on your investment. This one is purely optional but if you run everything else above this is just a little icing on the cake. Additionally, you can use this one as a hedge to take advantage of the larger return to still make a profit if you want do go in a different direction on a play that you don’t feel as strongly about as I do. Either way, it’s a fun little option to finish up out MKF article.

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports Monkey Knife Fight Tuesday Night Football 10.13 edition. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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