Dave Gloeckner 
Week 9 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. We’ve already taken down a few showdowns this year as a team at WinDaily, and I feel like we’re due for another. So, let’s keep the hot streak going as we have a good one tonight in a battle between the Bucs and Chiefs. Below is my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.
For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.
Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/
UPDATE (7pm EST): THE ARTICLE HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT WR JALEN MCMILLAN BEING RULED OUT, WR STERLING SHEPARD AND RB BUCKY IRVING AS ACTIVE.
Note on Quarterbacks:
I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article.
TAMPA BAY BUCS
Running Back
The Chiefs are 2nd in total defense DVOA. And that’s propelled by the #2 DVOA rushing defense. They allow just 82.3 rushing yards per game which is 3rd best in the league. Even more important, they allow the least fantasy points to RB’s.
So this is a tough spot for any team, but especially the Bucs who have struggled in recent years to establish a ground game. However, this year has been much better as they average 131.3 yards/game rushing ranking them 10th best in the NFL. And PFF ranks their running game as 8th best and their run blocking as the 10th best unit in the league. Based on all the injuries they have in the receiver room, we do have to think Tampa will try their best to establish a ground game tonight.
The Bucs have a good group of RB’s to choose from. It’s hard to feed all so they typically are heavy on the top two available RB’s on a given night. Last week, Rachaad White saw 56% of the snaps and Irving saw 42% while Tucker saw just 10%. This was similar in Week 7 as well, when the group saw a 48/35/20 split. White doesn’t carry an injury tag so he’s the clear top choice. Keep an eye on Irving, as he has a toe injury he’s dealing with, but he was able to suit up last week and they anticipate he will again. If he’s out, Tucker would shoot up my lists as his price is the best of the group.
Tier 1: Rachaad White, Bucky Irving
Tier 2:
Value: Sean Tucker
Wide Receiver
This is one of the toughest spots to project based on the injuries to Tampa’s WR’s and the youth of the ones playing tonight. Sterling Shepard is the veteran of the group, but he is dealing with a hamstring injury and is questionable tonight. Jalen McMillan is the rookie 3rd round pick from Washington. And filled in the #1 role last week accounting for 4 catches and 35 yards on 7 targets. But he tweaked a hamstring on Saturday and is questionable for tonight. Leaving us with Tre Palmer who is a 2nd year player from Nebraska. Palmer reeled in just 2 catches last week for 29 yards.
There are two dark horses too, in Ryan Miller (41% snaps last week) and Rakim Jarrett (2nd on team with 58 yards last week). We do know Tampa will likely pass a lot, as Baker averages 35.5 pass attempts per game. The tricky part is to find out where those targets will go.
Health will determine my favorite target here, but as of this writing I lean Jalen McMillan as I’m optimistic his injury was minor. From there, I’ll get Palmer involved but also look at Jarrett and Miller as low owned “high-risk” options. I tend to avoid Shepard in most of my lineups as his injury seems more severe and he hasn’t taken over a high role, which he should have based on his experience.
UPDATE: I’ve now moved Sterling Shepard up higher due to McMillan’s injury. At this point, I actually like Rakim Jarrett the most of all Tampa WR’s based on his upside and price.
Tier 1: Jalen McMillan, Tre Palmer, Sterling Shepard
Tier 2: Rakim Jarrett
Punts: Ryan Miller
Tight End
Not much analysis needed here. Cade Otton should be considered for most if not all your lineups tonight. KC’s weakness on defense is covering TE’s. They’ve allowed the most receiving yards to TE’s (566) and the 2nd most fantasy points. Cade Otton has seen 10 targets in each of the past two games. He is Baker’s favorite receiver right now and they’ll find ways to get him the ball. Let’s just hope he doesn’t hang him out to dry and get him injured as I’ve seen him do in the past few weeks.
Tier 1: Cade Otton
Tier 2:
Punt/Fadeable:
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Running Back
It’s crazy to think Kareem Hunt has become RB1 for the Chiefs. A prior standout in KC, he all but lost his job in the NFL all to be picked up off the shelf and reused due to injuries in the backfield. In the last two weeks, he’s seen 64% and 58% of the snaps. But he’s seen 82% and 84% of the touches in those weeks. He’s the guy, no questions asked.
Tampa has been very bad against the pass, especially of late. And that has likely inflated their rushing stats as they rank the 10th best rushing defense according to DVOA. But they allow the 13th most rushing yards per game at 131.6. And more importantly, they allow the highest yards per carry at 5.2. This is a sneaky good spot for a CPT tonight because people will be looking at the poor pass defense on Tampa.
Tier 1: Kareem Hunt
Tier 2: Samaje Perine
Wide Receiver
The Chiefs will need to get their passing game going if they want to win a 3rd straight Super Bowl. They are 11th overall in the NFL with 225.9 yards/game passing. Going back to 2019, they’ve been ranked:
- 2019: 281.1/game (5th)
- 2020: 303.4/game (1st)
- 2021: 281.8/game (4th)
- 2022: 297.8/game (1st)
- 2023: 246.4/game (6th)
So this is a trend that is working backwards for KC. And by losing Rashee Rice they have a big hole in the explosive plays department. Which means Xavier Worthy, and newly acquired D’Andre Hopkins must step up. And they should be able to tonight against a pass defense that is ranked 17th in pass defense DVOA. More importantly they allow the 4th most yards at 248.9/game. And in the last 2 weeks they’ve allowed Lamar Jackson and Kirk Cousins to throw for 9 TD’s and 0 INT’s.
My favorite of the group is Worthy and he’s (almost) always good for rushing yards as well as his typical 4-6 catches. Justin Watson saw 76% of the snaps last week and had a season high 3 catches so he’s worth a chance as a low-owned WR in some lineups. They tend to give him 1-2 shots downfield per game.
Tier 1: Xavier Worthy
Tier 2: D’Andre Hopkins
Cheap Options: Justin Watson
Tight End
Travis Kelce got back to Travis Kelce things last week. And shouldn’t that have been expected as he simply owns the Raiders? Tampa is bad against TE’s too, allowing the 6th most fantasy points to that position. Combine that with Jason Kelce’s antics this weekend and the bright lights of MNF and we have a great spot for one of the games best showmen.
Chiefs are deploying more 2 TE sets and Noah Gray has 7 catches in the past two games. So he’s worth a longshot look too.
Tier 1: Travis Kelce
Tier 2: Noah Gray
FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—FNF Showdown
I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like Kareem Hunt or Travis Kelce. They also have the TD equity and big play potential compared to their peers which is important on FanDuel. Both QB’s could be an option too, as they can make plays with their legs. Remember, you need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top.
On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. My favorite is Cade Otton but I also like Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce, Xavier Worthy and Rachaad White.
FanDuel
FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce
FDMVP Tier 2: Cade Otton, Xavier Worthy, Patrick Mahomes
FDMVP Tier 3: Baker Mayfield, Rachaad White
DraftKings
DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Cade Otton, Travis Kelce, Kareem Hunt
DK CPT Tier 2: Patrick Mahomes, Xavier Worthy
DK CPT Tier 3: Rachaad White, D’Andre Hopkins, Baker Mayfield
DK CPT Punt: Jalen McMillan, Bucky Irving, Sterling Shepard
Flex Rankings Tier 1:
- Cade Otton
- Kareem Hunt
- Travis Kelce
- Patrick Mahomes
- Xavier Worthy
- Baker Mayfield
- Rachaad White
- Bucky Irving
Jalen McMillan
Flex Rankings Tier 2: (Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)
Bucky Irving (questionable)- Tre Palmer
- Rakim Jarrett
- D’Andre Hopkins
- Justin Watson
- Chiefs D
- Noah Gray
- Harrison Butker
- Chase McLaughlin
Punts/Fadeable: (Don’t play unless desperate)
- Ryan Miller
Sean TuckerRakim Jarrett
Best Rules for the slate:
- The TE’s rule tonight. KC allows the 2nd most fantasy points to TE’s and Tampa allows the 6th most.
- Kareem Hunt has seen 22 touches and 27 touches in the past 2 weeks alone. I could see another heavy workload tonight against a Bucs D that allows the highest yards per carry in the NFL.
- There has been rain in KC today but it looks to be clearing out by game time. I don’t think weather will be a factor.
- I like Xavier Worthy the most out of all WR’s tonight. He’s TD possibility from anywhere on the field.
- D’Andre Hopkins is getting slowly worked into the offense. I see him with TD equity tonight, as he’s a target in the redzone. But I don’t think he’ll have a high volume game as he still needs time to build a relationship with Mahomes.
- Speaking of Chiefs WR’s, I like Justin Watson a lot tonight. The Bucs have been vulnerable against the pass and Watson is always due for 1-2 deep shots.
- As for Tampa WR’s, Jalen McMillan is a 3rd round pick out of Washington. You might have heard, but they made the College Football Championship last year with an elite passing game. He’s their best WR if healthy. If he does take the field, I’ll have some shares of McMillan across my lineups.
- NOTE: McMillan is out. Shepard has the most NFL experience and will likely be a redzone target for Mayfield. I have him ranked as top Bucs WR with Jarrett, Palmer, and Miller following him in that order.
- I like Rachaad White in the passing game but not the running game tonight. He’s a tick ahead of Irving in snap count and touches.
- Both Kickers are in play – Total is 46.5 and the weather is nice but there is some wind predicted. Kicking game could be a factor tonight.
- The Chiefs D is in play as they rank in the top 6 in many defensive metrics.
Favorite prop for the game: Baker Mayfield over 0.5 Int’s (-160)
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