MONDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN STRATEGY: San Francisco 49ers vs New York Jets

Week 1 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. And we have a big game to cover as the NFC Champion San Francisco 49ers host the New York Jets and a team in win-now mode. In this article, I’ll share my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article. 

SAN FRANCISCO 49ers

Running Back

You may have heard of the 49ers RB. He’s pretty good at football. So there’s no hiding that Christian McCaffrey will be used in a heavy percentage of lineups tonight. The key will be to understand how to use CMac. As much as you heard about San Fran’s D last year, the Jets were just as impressive. Because they were so good against the pass, teams often tried to exploit them in the run game. While they ended 24^th in rushing yards allowed, they ended up 3^rd in DVOA against the run. That’s because the Jets saw the 3^rd most rushing attempts against them. New York ended up with the 10^th lowest ypc, 4.1, and allowed just 14 rushing TD’s, 11^th least in the league.

The good news for McCaffrey owners is that the Jets did allow the 7^th most points to opposing RB’s last year. And they allowed 100-yard rushing games to three different backs that are towards the upper echelon of the league in Isaiah Pacheco, Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs. And none of those offensive lines matched up to the 49ers in run blocking grades as the Raiders were 14th, Chiefs were 16th and Giants were 30th in run blocking in 2023. San Francisco, on the other hand, was 1^st in run blocking grade last year and just re-signed their star LT Trent Williams.

Christian McCaffrey’s backup entering the season looks to be Jordan Mason as Eli Mitchell hit the IR during training camp. Mason did get some touches last year and flashed with a 5.1 ypc. I think there’s value in Mason tonight based on his potential to shed some of McCaffrey’s workload.

UPDATE: Christian McCaffrey was ruled out. Move Mason up to a must play. His workload plus salary will let you afford Samuel/Hall/Wilson.

Tier 1: Jordan Mason

Tier 2: None

Wide Receiver

The Jets have one of the best defensive backfields in the league led by star CB Sauce Gardner. According to PFF, the Jets ended the season with the highest pass coverage rating in the league. Statistically speaking, the pass defense finished 2^nd overall in DVOA and 2^nd in pass yards allowed.

New York also imposes a good pass rush as they registered 48 sacks last season ranking in the top 10 in football. However, they are without DE Hasaan Reddick who was traded to the Jets in the offseason but has failed to report due to a contractual stalemate. So the Jets will now rely on inexperienced ends in Jermaine Johson and Michael Clemons to create pressure on the QB. One good news for the Jets is the 49ers were ranked 24^th in pass block rate in 2023. And PFF rates their Offensive Line at 25^th best heading into 2024. Their strength is run-blocking and they do struggle in pass-blocking. Even with the return of Trent Williams we could expect some conditioning issues and rust.

I think this is a very tough matchup for all 49er WR’s based on the great coverage skills of the Jets plus the 49ers difficultly in the pass blocking game. However, I do like Deebo Samuel because he can be used in the running game and we see that is a great place to attack the Jets. Plus with new, or inexperienced DE’s, the jet sweep could be deployed early and often. The big question mark is Brandon Aiyuk who signed late in the preseason. As with many late signees, I expect some rust. But more importantly I expect him to see a ton of Sauce tonight thus lowering his value. More often than not, Gardner did follow around the other team’s top WR each game.

With the injury to rookie WR Ricky Pearsall the 49ers will once again use Jauan Jennings as WR3. He will provide some salary relief and value tonight. But one WR to keep an eye on is rookie Jacob Cowing. HC Kyle Shannahan has great praise for Cowing stating “the game wasn’t too big for him”. The 49ers will likely use him on special teamsi ncluding punt returns.

Tier 1: Deebo Samuel

Tier 2: Brandon Aiyuk, Jacob Cowing

Punts: Jauan Jennings

Tight End

Though the Jets are tough against WR’s, they are more foregiving to TE’s. That showed in the stats last year as the Jets allowed the 13^th most fantasy points to opposing TE’s. The biggest showing was David Njoku’s 134 yard performance in Week 16. For those reasons as well as the Jets looking to take out WR’s, Kittle should be highly considered for your lineups and even the CPT spot.

Tier 1: George Kittle

Tier 2:

Punt/Fadeable:

NEW YORK JETS

Running Back

Like the 49ers, the Jets have one of the most dynamic RB’s in the game in Breece Hall. In most season long fantasy drafts, McCaffrey and Hall were the first two RB’s off the board. On the surface, it could be tough sledding tonight for the Jets running game. That’s because SF allowed the 3^rd least rushing yards last season. And they finished 4^th in rushing defense DVOA. But as we look deeper, there are points to be had here against a great SF defense. For one, teams were often down early against SF and abandoned the run. The 49ers D saw the least amount of rushing attempts in 2023. And according to PFF, they ranked 11^th in rushing defense grading last season.

And here’s another reason to be optimistic about Hall tonight, the 49ers allowed the 8^th most receiving yards to RB’s last season. On average, RB’s caught 5.3 balls per game for 36 yards against SF. And Hall is not your average receiver as he finished last season with 76 catches of his own.

The Jets drafted RB Braelon Allen in the fourth round to battle with other incumbents such as Israel Abanikanda for the backup RB job. And by all accounts, Allen won that job and will see the field tonight against SF. We do expect him to give Hall a break at times and get anywhere upwards of 5 touches tonight. He would need to punch one of those in the endzone for his value to hit.

Tier 1: Breece Hall 

Tier 2: Braelon Allen (Punt Play)

Wide Receiver

The Jets are starting year two of the Aaron Rodgers experiment. And because of his tragic season ending injury in Week 1 of the 2023 season, we never got to see how good he could make WR Garrett Wilson. Instead, Wilson had to see passes from bad throwers such as Zach Wilson, Tim Boyle and Trevor Siemien. And his production was still very good as Wilson finished as WR 24 in 2023. What was most notable is that he was 4^th in targets with 168. So now, the hope is, that he’ll have many more balls on target that he can actually catch because it’s Aaron Rodgers. And he can now turn into the top 10 WR we’ve all been waiting for.

The other good news is that the 49ers ranked 18^th in adjusted points to fantasy WR’s last season. They have a solid CB in Charvarius Ward but the others rank in the bottom half of PFF’s DB grades. Meaning this defensive backfield can be had.

As for the other WR’s, free agent Mike Williams has been cleared to play and will be a big target downfield and in the redzone for Rodgers. Additionally, WR Allen Lazard’s production should see a spike with Rodgers at the helm based on their chemistry from the Green Bay days. Xavier Gipson will likely return kicks so his value goes up because of the potential for a special teams TD. I’m punting on the other low value WR’s in Malachi Corley and Irvin Charles.

Tier 1: Garrett Wilson

Tier 2: Mike Williams, Allen Lazard

Tight End

The 49ers were good against TE’s as they allowed just 3 receiving touchdowns to the Tight End position in 2023. Fred Warner is one of the best LB’s in the game and can cover almost any TE. While I’m excited to see if this is finally the breakout year for Jets TE Tyler Conklin, this is a difficult matchup. Overall the 49ers were the 3^rd best unit against TE’s. The one optimistic thought is that he will see the field plenty and could get more downfield routes if Mike Williams is on a snap count.

Tier 1: Tyler Conklin

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—FNF Showdown 

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like a stud RB or WR. I’m passing on QB’s at the MVP position because of the opposing defense’s ability to rush the passer and defend on the back end. Both units ranked high against the run, but there are metrics showing you can succeed in the rushing attack. You need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. Last night we did see a combo of Jameson Williams and Lions RB’s hit. So I can see a scenario where we package Hall and Wilson as well as McCaffrey or Kittle/Samuel.

FanDuel

FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson

FanDuel MVP Tier 2: Deebo Samuel, George Kittle

FanDuel MVP Tier 3: Jordan Mason, Mike Williams 

DraftKings

DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, Deebo Samuel

DraftKings CPT Tier 2: Jordan Mason, George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk

DraftKings CPT Tier 3: Aaron Rodgers, Brock Purdy

DraftKings CPT Punt: Mike Williams

Flex Rankings Tier 1:

• Jordan Mason
• Garrett Wilson
• Breece Hall
• Deebo Samuel
• George Kittle
• Brock Purdy
• Brandon Aiyuk
• Mike Williams
• Aaron Rodgers
• Tyler Conklin

Flex Rankings Tier 2: (Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

• Jacob Cowing
• Jordan Mason (moved to Tier 1)
• Allen Lazard
• Greg Zuerlein
• Jake Moody
• 49ers D
• Jets D

Punts/Fadeable: (Don’t play unless desperate)

• Malachi Corley
• Jauan Jennings

Best Rules for the slate:

• Play at least one stud RB
• PLAY JORDAN MASON!
• Play Garrett Wilson and/or Deebo Samuel
• Only play 1 QB, or none
• Be careful of Brandon Aiyuk because of the potential for Sauce to follow him around the field.
• Both Kickers are in play – Total is only 43 and these are two top Ds o we could see points in kicking game.
• Consider one defense in a 4/2 or 5/1 roster alignment

Favorite prop for the game: Garrett Wilson over 5.5 catches (-160 FD) / Garrett Wilson most receiving yards (+125 DK)

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