Dave Gloeckner 
Week 8 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. We’ve already taken down a few showdowns this year as a team at WinDaily, and I feel like we’re due for another. So, let’s keep the hot streak going as we have a good one tonight in a battle between two storied franchises in the Giants and Steelers. Below is my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.
For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.
Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/
Note on Quarterbacks:
I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article.
NEW YORK GIANTS
Running Back
The Giants simply don’t run the ball enough, or effectively, to be relied on in season long DFS. But they have had some weekly success, including Tyrone Tracy putting up big numbers in their only other primetime game against the Bengals in Week 6. So throw out any bias you have with the Giants running game tonight as it pertains to fantasy and let’s see if we can find value in their matchup with the Steelers.
The reality is, this is a tough matchup for the Giants run game. Pittsburgh ranks 3rd in rushing defense DVOA and 4th in PFF rush defense ranking. And they’re allowing the 5th lowest fantasy point to RB’s this season. Add to that the Giants average just 3.9 yards/carry, which is 29th in the league, and have the 7th lowest run block rating in the NFL. Put all that together, and we’re back to where we started, fading the Giants running game.
The one piece of good news, if there is any, is that the Steelers are susceptible to RB’s in the passing game as they allow 5.1 catches per game to running backs. And both Singletary and Tracy are good pass catchers.
Overall, I like the $4K discount on Tracy. While last week’s game got out of hand quickly for the Giants, Tracy saw 67% of the snaps compared to Singletary’s 21%. The touches were late in the game with the score decided so I’m ignoring that. But Tracy does seem to have the hotter hand right now. And the Giants are desperate, so they need to take chances and use whoever is performing best.
Tier 1: Tyrone Tracy Jr.
Tier 2: Devin Singletary
Wide Receiver
This is the one spot that we’ll look to get some Giants into our lineups. While they struggle with protection, allowing 8 sacks last week, they have the 8th highest passing rate in the NFL, throwing it almost 60% of the time. And the spread, as well as team records, indicate they could be down early and often.
The Steelers have allowed the 14th most passing yards in the league, at 217 per game. Their DB’s are ranked 17th in team defense pass coverage. So there will be room to take shots if Daniel Jones has time. Obvious first choice is Malik Nabers. But the Steelers have allowed big games to #2 and slot WR’s like Ray Ray McCloud (led Falcons in receiving in Week 1), Jalen Tolbert (7 for 87 with TD) and Josh Downs (8 for 82 yards with TD). So, I like Wan’Dale Robinson to be a factor tonight and rank him up there with Nabers based on projected volume. Both led the team with 8 targets last week.
Tier 1: Malik Nabers, Wan’Dale Robinson
Tier 2: Darius Slayton
Punts: N/A
Tight End
We keep waiting for the Theo Johnson breakout game. And once again, he disappointed last week recording 0 catches on 0 targets. And maybe that happens this week as Pittsburgh has been vulnerable against TE’s. As of this writing, they allow the 11th most fantasy points per games to TE’s. And they’ve surrendered 3 receiving TD’s to tight ends. And if you haven’t heard, it was national TE day yesterday so no way will Theo want to be left out on the fun. I like him a lot because of his price tag and potential. Now it’s up to the QB to actually give him some looks.
Tier 1: Theo Johnson
Tier 2:
Punt/Fadeable:
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Running Back
The Giants are coming off a game in which they allowed 176 yards rushing to Saquon Barkley, their former 1st-round pick. In total, they surrendered 269 yards on the ground in Week 7 against the Eagles. Some metrics give them a better rating, as they are 14th in rush defense DVOA and 16th in PFF run defense. But I saw what I saw last week, and that is if you commit to the run then you can get big gains against this Giants defense.
The issue is, Pittsburgh isn’t necessarily built like the Eagles as they have the 21st ranked rushing offense according to DVOA. And they rank 22nd in rushing offense in points expected from the running game, with a negative 3.17 total. But the good news is, they do commit to the run, ranking as the 2nd highest run rate in the league at 54%. So if commit is what we want then we will probably see that tonight with the Steelers.
Last week, Jaylen Warren actually saw more snaps then Najee Harris. But Harris dominated the touches with 21 to Warren’s 14. What we’re seeing is Warren taking more of a lead role now that he is healthy as his snap count and touches have gone up since his return. Therefore, of the two, I like Warren the most tonight and think he could have a breakout game. Harris will only find value if he lands in the endzone.
Tier 1: Jaylen Warren
Tier 2: Najee Harris
Wide Receiver
The return of Russell Wilson made George Pickens into a fantasy hero. He had his best outing of the year, putting up 25.1 fantasy points and recording 111 yards receiving on 5 catches with one TD. We’ll look for more of that from Pickens tonight as he becomes more of a downfield target with Wilson behind center. The Giants can be susceptible to the long ball as they allowed a completion of 24 yards or more in every game this season.
Several other Pittsburgh receivers got into the action last week as well, with Darnell Washington (TE) and Calvin Austin both seeing 4 targets each. Van Jefferson saw three. But the key was that Jefferson saw 62% of the snaps which was 12% more than Austin. That is 6 of 7 weeks that Jefferson has out-snapped his counterpart.
Tier 1: George Pickens
Tier 2: Van Jefferson, Calvin Austin
Cheap Options: N/A
Tight End
The Giants have been tough on TE’s, allowing just 246 yards on 28 receptions in 7 weeks of action. But Pittsburgh likes to use a lot of “12” personnel (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR), getting both Pat Freiermuth and Darnell Washington over 50% snap counts last week (Pittsburgh has 9th highest usage of 12 personnel at 22%). Combined they saw 7 targets from Wilson and caught 6 of them for 87 yards. Because of the gap in salary, I do like Washington better tonight. But if you have the room, Freiermuth is always a trusted option in the Pittsburgh offense.
Tier 1: Pat Freiermuth
Tier 2: Darnell Washington
FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—FNF Showdown
I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like George Pickens or Malik Nabers. They also have the TD equity and big play potential compared to their peers which is important on FanDuel. Both QB’s could be an option too, as they make plays with their legs and there isn’t high star power in this game. Remember, you need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top.
On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. My favorite is George Pickens but I also like Daniel Jones, Malik Nabers, Russell Wilson and Wan’Dale Robinson.
FanDuel
FanDuel MVP Tier 1: George Pickens, Malik Nabers
FDMVP Tier 2: Russell Wilson, Daniel Jones
FDMVP Tier 3: Jaylen Warren, Najee Harris, Wan’Dale Robinson, Pat Freiermuth
DraftKings
DraftKings CPT Tier 1: George Pickens, Malik Nabers, Daniel Jones, Russell Wilson
DK CPT Tier 2: Wan’Dale Robinson, Pat Freiermuth, Jaylen Warren
DK CPT Tier 3: Najee Harris, Darnell Washington, Tyrone Tracy, Steelers D
DK CPT Punt:
Flex Rankings Tier 1:
- Malik Nabers
- George Pickens
- Russell Wilson
- Daniel Jones
- Steelers D
- Jaylen Warren
- Wan’Dale Robinson
- Pat Freiermuth
Flex Rankings Tier 2: (Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)
- Najee Harris
- Theo Johnson
- Chris Boswell
- Greg Joseph
- Tyrone Tracy
- Devin Singletary
- Van Jefferson
- Calvin Austin
- Darnell Washington
Punts/Fadeable: (Don’t play unless desperate)
- Daniel Bellinger
- Jalin Hyatt
Best Rules for the slate:
- The #1 WR’s have the most star power tonight as well as the best ability to break a big play. Must consider both Pickens and Nabers at CPT and in most of your lineups as a pair.
- This is one night I could see a defense in the CPT position. The Steelers D is in the top 10 of yards allowed and DVOA. The Giants allowed 8 sacks last week and their O Line is a mess. I will play some lineups with the Steel Curtain as my CPT.
- Even though it’s a tough matchup on paper, I think a Pittsburgh TE is in play. Don’t play both but either Freiermuth or Washington could emerge as receiver #2 on Pittsburgh.
- I’m big on Jaylen Warren tonight. He adds another dimension to this offense. I’ll play him over Harris in a lot of my lineups.
- Wan’Dale Robinson gets so many targets that he must be considered in all lineups. He won’t get you a ton of yards, but he’s going to see 8+ targets which gives him extreme value tonight.
- I’m fading the Giants running game. But Tyrone Tracy at $4400 is worth a look. I’m not playing Singletary at $8400 and against this defense.
- Both QB’s are in play. I like Jones slightly more but there is a risk of him being pulled if it gets out of hand. Happened last week though Drew Lock didn’t fare any better.
- Both Kickers are in play – Total is just 36.5 and the weather is nice but there is some wind predicted. Kicking game could be a factor tonight.
- I think the Giants could surprise tonight as they play better on the road. Therefore, in a contrarian move, don’t count out the Giants defense to put up some points.
Favorite prop for the game: Daniel Jones over 25.5 yards rushing (-110). TJ Watt will be in the backfield all day and I think Jones will hear footsteps and leave the pocket early.
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