Dave Gloeckner 
Week 5 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. And we get a good one tonight as two potential playoff teams square off in the Saints and Chiefs. We had a solid weekend as several of our experts were bullish on QB Lamar Jackson and Joe Flacco, which helped immediately turn your lineups into a green screen. So we’ll look to cap off a great weekend with another money-making strategy article for this big showdown in KC. Below is my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.
For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.
Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/
Note on Quarterbacks:
I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Running Back
The Chiefs deploy a top-notch rushing defense. They allow the 5th lowest rushing yards per game and are ranked #3 in rush defense DVOA. Even more important, they allow the fewest fantasy points (DraftKings) to running backs. And it’s not like RB’s are doing damage in the pass game either, as they’ve allowed just 12 receptions to running backs, which is tied for fewest in the league coming into Week 5. As we know, a big part of RB Alvin Kamara’s game is his ability to catch passes out of the backfield. So that’s an important stat to consider.
But the good news for Kamara is that he’s almost matchup proof. And that’s due to a high volume of usage, as Kamara has 97 touches in 4 games (24.5/game). And he leads the league with an 82% snap count over the first four weeks.
Therefore, regardless of the matchup, Kamara is a must play on most of your builds tonight. Backup RB Jamaal Williams did see 5 touches last week but has seen just 13% of the snaps this season.
Tier 1: Bijan Robinson
Tier 2: Jamaal Williams
Wide Receiver
The Chiefs are solid against WR’s too but do have some holes that can be exploited in the defensive backfield. For one, they rank just 17th in pass defense DVOA. Secondly, they’ve allowed four receiving TD’s to WR’s this season as well as 42 receptions. And according to PFF, the Chiefs rank 20th in the NFL in pass coverage. So there are points to be had in the passing game for the Saints.
DB Trent McDuffie has been very good for the Chiefs this season and has kept #1 WR’s, like Zay Flowers and Ja’Marr Chase, to minimal yardage games. On the other side, Jaylen Watson has been good too but susceptible to big plays.
After a slow Week 1, when he wasn’t needed, Chris Olave has turned it on. In the last three games he’s hauled in 18 of his 22 targets for 254 yards and 1 TD. The Saints #2 WR, Rashid Shaheed, has more targets than Olave on the season (25 to 24) and has averaged more fantasy points (13.5 to 13.3). No other Saints receiver has more than 4 catches on the season as they focus on the RB’s and TE’s outside of Shaheed and Olave.
Tier 1: Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed
Tier 2:
Punts: Mason Tipton
Tight End
The Chiefs have been vulnerable against TE’s this year as they’ve allowed the most fantasy points per game to that position. IN fact, they are one of only two teams to allow over 300 yards receiving to TE’s this season (going into Week 5). We can all remember the big game that Isaiah Likely had in Week 1, which was followed up by a 7 reception 91 yard performance by Cincy TE Mike Gesicki.
With Taysom Hill out, I like Johnson to see the field over 50% of the snaps. Backup TE Foster Moreau could be considered for salary relief but being that Johnson is only $400 more, I’d focus on the starter for my builds.
Tier 1: Juwan Johnson
Tier 2:
Punt/Fadeable: Foster Moreau
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Running Back
The Chiefs are ravaged by injuries to key offensive players, especially at the RB position as lead Isaiah Pacheco is still on the IR with a broken leg. While they preferred to survive his absence with rookie RB Carson Steele, he has developed a case of fumble-itis resulting in his demotion last week. Instead, the Chiefs have turned to castoff Kareem Hunt who led the team with 14 carries last week against the Chargers. Clyde Edwards-Helaire has not been activated per this writing, so it looks to be Hunt then Samaje Perine with a sprinkle of Carson Steele if needed.
The Saints rank 8th in rushing defense DVOA and 19th in PFF’s rushing defense grading. Excluding Week 1 and 2, where the Saints blew away teams and forced them into passing, the Saints have allowed 260 yards rushing and an average of 6.5 yards per carry. So there is room to run against New Orleans, especially in more competitive game environments like the one predicted tonight.
Tier 1: Kareem Hunt
Tier 2: Samaje Perine
Wide Receiver
The Chiefs suffered another devastating injury last week this time to star WR Rashee Rice. The jury is still out to what the extent of his injury is. But it’s certain that he’ll be out a minimum of four week as he was officially placed on the IR last week.
Which means the KC receiving corps is where you have to be right tonight as I expect an unknown, or lowly owned, player to be the hero of the slate. The Saints have a strong defensive backfield led by CB Marshon Lattimore. But it’s Patrick Mahomes who can dissect any good defense. His passing numbers have been down of late, but he’s still the best in the game and has enough weapons to make big plays tonight.
I prefer the rookie, Xavier Worthy, the most as they use him in many different ways including the run game. After that it’s a crap shoot. But keep an eye on WR Justin Watson who saw the 3rd most targets last week and has the trust of Mahomes. Other names that need to be on your radar are Justyn Ross and Nikko Remigio, as both took snaps with the first team in practices this week with Mecole Hardman sitting out with a knee injury.
Tier 1: Xavier Worthy
Tier 2: Justin Watson, JuJu Smith Schuster, Sky Moore
Tier 3/Cheap Options: Justyn Ross, Nikko Remigio
Tight End
We’re waiting for our first Travis Kelce breakout game of the season. And after watching what Eagles TE Dallas Goedert did against New Orleans, I’m betting that comes tonight on MNF. Kelce showed signs of life last week as he brought in 7 catches on 9 targets. To put that in perspective, he had just 8 receptions combined in the first 3 weeks. And the Saints, as alluded to with Goedert, have allowed the 4th most fantasy points to TE’s this year.
Of note, Noah Gray saw four targets last week as the Chiefs did run many 2 TE sets with Rice injured.
Tier 1: Travis Kelce
Tier 2: Noah Gray
FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—FNF Showdown
I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like Alvin Kamara, Patrick Mahomes or Travis Kelce. I’m passing on Derek Carr at the MVP position because he’s not playing the Panthers or Cowboys (averaged 9 fantasy points in weeks not playing Carolina and Dallas). Remember, you need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top.
On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. I’ll look at Kamara and Kelce as my favorites but my two favorites outside of those are Shaheed and Worthy.
FanDuel
FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Alvin Kamara, Travis Kelce, Patrick Mahomes
FDMVP Tier 2: Kareem Hunt, Chris Olave, Xavier Worthy
FDMVP Tier 3: Rashid Shaheed, Juwan Johnson
DraftKings
DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Travis Kelce, Alvin Kamara
DK CPT Tier 2: Xavier Worthy, Rashid Shaheed, Kareem Hunt
DK CPT Tier 3: Chris Olave, Juwan Johnson, Patrick Mahomes
DK CPT Punt: Justin Watson
Flex Rankings Tier 1:
- Travis Kelce
- Alvin Kamara
- Xavier Worthy
- Patrick Mahomes
- Kareem Hunt
- Chris Olave
- Juwan Johnson
- Rashid Shaheed
Flex Rankings Tier 2: (Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)
- Derek Carr
- Noah Gray
- Justin Watson
- JuJu Smith-Schuster
- Harrison Butker
- Blake Grupe
- Saints D
- Chiefs D
Punts/Fadeable: (Don’t play unless desperate)
- Justyn Ross
- Sky Moore
- Nikko Remigio
Best Rules for the slate:
- Play at least one stud RB, likely both. Both have tough matchups, but both teams also lack a full arsenal of WR’s. So they will use the RB’s in the passing game as much as possible.
- Travis Kelce is my favorite player of the night due to the Saints issues matching up with TE’s. And Kelce’s knack to step up in big game (i.e. prime time).
- If you play Kelce and Xavier Worthy then you’ll need to find space for Mahomes.
- I like Juwan Johnson a lot, and he’s good salary relief if building around the Chiefs passing game.
- Don’t be afraid to play one of the Chiefs less heralded WR’s. I’m leaning Justin Watson as my favorite of the group. But both Remigio and Ross are intriguing and if play if we get news that one is starting.
- Only play 1 QB, or none. I prefer Mahomes over Carr. I don’t think there’s enough points scored to play both QB’s (total is 43)
- Both Kickers are in play – Total is 43 and the weather is calm. Kicking game could be a factor tonight.
- Consider one defense in a 4/2 or 5/1 roster alignment
Favorite prop for the game: TBD
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