Dave Gloeckner 
Week 16 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. The Saints go marching into Green Bay looking to build some momentum for 2025. While the Packers need to win to keep pace with Minnesota and Detroit as they still have a very outside shot to win the NFC North. Below is my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.
A note about tonight’s game is that we have a high point spread and low total as Green Bay is a 14-point favorite with a game total at 43. As for the weather, it will be cold at Lambeau Field as there is snow in the forecast during the day. While that should clear out by game time, the temperature will be around 30 degrees F with a windchill in the low 20’s.
For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.
Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/
Note on Quarterbacks:
I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Running Back
Welcome to the uncertainty of late season football. Injuries have plagued the New Orleans Saints all season long. But one position that stayed relatively healthy was running back. That was until last week when star RB Alvin Kamara came up with a leg injury which will keep him out of tonight’s game.
New Orleans will turn the starting duties over to RB Kendre Miller tonight. Miller has had a precarious time with the Saints, as he’s often been injured which brought out some telling comments from his coaches and players earlier this year. The talented runner from TCU will have his chance to show the talent that attracted the Saints to draft him in the 3rd round in 2023. He’s a physical runner that runs north and south.
The concern with Miller tonight is twofold. First, he’s not a great receiver. The Packers allow the 10th least rushing yards per game but the 12th most fantasy points to RB’s. That’s due in part to them allowing the 5th most receiving yards to RB’s, including the 6th most receptions at 5.1 per game. That’s mainly how backs get points on this Packers D. Secondly, durability is a concern for me as Miller has often been injured in his career. I’m not sure he’s ready for a full workload.
Which brings us to RB #2, who is almost $6K cheaper and a more proven back; Jamaal Williams. He may also be the beneficiary of goal line touches, if the Saints get there.
Others to keep an eye on are Jordan Mims and Clyde Edward-Helaire (CEH). We’ll track this situation throughout the day.
Tier 1: Kendre Miller
Tier 2: Jamaal Williams
Punt: Jordan Mims, CEH
Wide Receiver
The Packers have been very good against WR’s this season, allowing the 4th lowest points to that position. And most of those stats have been without star CB Jaire Alexander, as he’s missed the last month due to a knee injury. The good news is, he’s listed as questionable tonight with a decent chance to play.
The Saints, on the other hand, have been devastated by injuries at WR. Their 2nd leading WR on the season, in terms of yards, is Marquez Valdes-Scantling. And he joined the team in November. And he’s listed as questionable for tonight with an illness. If he’s in, he’ll be the top WR to target as he saw 78% of the snaps last week and a team high 7 targets.
As for the other receivers, Dante Pettis saw the 2nd highest number of targets with 5 last week. But he had just the 4th highest number of snaps at 26 (47%).
The receiver that saw the field the most behind MVS, was Kevin Austin who saw 74.5% of the snaps. He was only able to bring in 1 of his 3 targets but the snap count makes him a sneaky play tonight.
The other two receivers that see reps are Mason Tipton (55% of snaps) and Cedrick Wilson Jr (36% of snaps). But neither recorded a catch last week. Wilson has some upside but also plays a lot of special teams for NO which limits his offensive snaps.
Tier 1: Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Tier 2: Kevin Austin, Dante Pettis
Punts: Cedric Wilson Jr, Mason Tipton
Tight End
The TE’s ruled the targets last week with Haener and Rattler at QB. Combined, Juwan Johnson and Foster Moreau had 6 catches for 51 yards and a TD. The Packers allow the 8th most points to TE’s so this is an area the Saints can attack. It makes sense as it aligns with the Packers second level defense being poor against RB’s in the receiving game.
The Saints ran a lot of double TE packages last week as Moreau saw 64% of snaps and Johnson saw 73%. While Moreau outpaced Johnson in the catching category, I still prefer Juwan for fantasy purposes.
Tier 1: Juwan Johnson
Tier 2: Foster Moreau
Punt/Fadeable:
GREEN BAY PACKERS
Running Back
There’s not much science to the Packers running game. It’s Josh Jacobs then hardly anyone else. Coming into Week 16, Jacobs is 11th in snaps per game for RB’s, sitting at 42.1. But he’s pushes the top of the RB list in touches, coming in at the 3rd highest behind just Saquon Barkley and Kyren Williams.
The Saints have struggled against RB’s this season allowing the 10th most fantasy points. In particular, they break down at the goal line, as they’ve allowed 14 rushing TD’s which is tied for the 2nd most in the NFL. And that fits perfectly with Jacobs as he is 2nd in the NFL with 12 rushing touchdowns.
This is a premium spot for Jacobs and considering the weather and game script, he should be considered as your top player tonight.
Tier 1: Josh Jacobs
Tier 2:
Wide Receiver
It’s always tough to predict the Packers preferred WR week in and week out. Back in Week 14, Christian Watson led the way with 6 targets followed by Dontayvion Wicks with 5. But in Week 15, it was Jayden Reed that led the way with 6, which was tied with Watson as well. Close behind was Romeo Doubs with 5 but he converted two of those into TD’s, which were his first TD’s wince Week 5.
The Saints rank bad against the pass game too, allowing the 5th most passing yards per game and the 6th most fantasy points to WR’s. They’ve been particularly poor against outside receivers especially in recent weeks. Looks at these numbers just from a target/catch perspective:
- Week 15: Terry McClaurin – 10 targets/ 7 catches/ 73 yards / 2 TD
- Week 14: Malik Nabers – 10 targets / 5 catches / 79 yards / 0 TD’s
- Week 13: Puka Nacua – 8 targets / 5 catches / 56 yards / 1 TD
- Week 12: Jerry Jeudy – 11 targets/ 6 catches/ 142 yards/ 1 TD
- Week 11: Drake London – 13 targets/ 8 catches/ 97 yards/ 1 TD
So there is room to run against this Saints defensive backfield. If we truly knew who the Packers #1 was, then I’d be heavily invested in that player. But based on similarities of the receivers above, I’m going to rank Watson as my favorite followed by Reed. Romeo Doubs is too volatile as he has just two games with TD catches. And Wicks doesn’t see enough targets to be considered above Watson and Reed.
Tier 1: Christian Watson, Jayden Reed
Tier 2: Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks
Cheap Options: t
Tight End
The Saints allow the 18th most points to TE’s. It’s likely due to the other positions having big days. But Tucker Kraft is much like a WR in this offense so I consider him as a primary option tonight in your lineups. He’s scored 7 TD’s this season including two in the last three games.
Tier 1: Tucker Kraft
Tier 2: Ben Sims
FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—FNF Showdown
I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like Josh Jacobs. The QB’s are both in play as Love should have big plays available and Rattler will have to throw (and run) a lot. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top.
On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. I still believe the 2 QB’s are your best options at the CPT spot as well.
FanDuel
FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Josh Jacobs, Jordan Love, Tucker Kraft
FDMVP Tier 2: Christian Watson, Spencer Rattler
FDMVP Tier 3: Kendre Miller, Jayden Reed, Juwan Johnson
DraftKings
DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Josh Jacobs, Jordan Love, Tucker Kraft
DK CPT Tier 2: Christian Watson, Spencer Rattler
DK CPT Tier 3: Kendre Miller, Jayden Reed, Juwan Johnson
DK CPT Punt: Green Bay Defense
Best Rules for the slate:
- The weather will be decent for football once the snow clears out which should happen prior to kickoff. Winds are below 10 mph which will allow for passing and kicking games to be effective.
- I’ll have Josh Jacobs as my most rostered player and highest percentage of CPTs. His volume and time of the field is top 5 in the NFL. And the Saints have been bleeding yards to RB’s all year.
- For the Packers WR’s, I prefer Watson and Reed over Doubs and Wicks. The Packers do like to take shots downfield at least a few times per game. Watson should be the beneficiary of that.
- Of all the Packers receivers, Tucker Kraft is my favorite. I like him to be a big part of this offense tonight. With no Luke Musgrave (on IR), Kraft has seen an average of 90% of the snaps in the last 3 weeks. For the year, he’s seen 86% of the snaps. He also has the most receiving TD’s on the team with 7.
- For the Saints, the sneaky WR play I like is Kevin Austin. He saw almost 75% of the snaps last week and was acting as WR #2.
- The Saints TE’s should see some volume in the passing game as young QB’s often rely on them as a safety valve. Consider both Johnson and Moreau.
- My main concern with Rattler is the Saints could urn to Haener if the game gets out of control. But Rattler provides value as he gainst points with his legs; 9 rushes for 61 yards in 2 games he started.
- Green Bay Defense is a viable option tonight and one that could put up some big points against a broken down Saints offense.
- The only kicker I’ll consider is McManus as I don’t think the Saints will have many opportunities.
Favorite prop for the game: TBD
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