Dave Gloeckner 
Week 10 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. We did it again last MNF as our “Presidente” took down a showdown. Showing the work you put in will produce results! So, let’s keep the hot streak going as we have a good one tonight in a battle between the Dolphins and Rams. Below is my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.
For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.
Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/
Note on Quarterbacks:
I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article.
MIAMI DOLPHINS
Running Back
The Rams rush defense is towards the bottom half of the league in most metrics. According to DVOA they have the 22nd best rush defense. As for the results on the field, the Rams allow 135.1 yards/game on the ground which is 8th most. They allow the 14th most points to RB’s mainly due to the fact they’ve allowed 6 rushing TD’s.
The Dolphins backfield is always blurry due to the several mouths to feed. But De’Von Achane always rules the roost due to his explosive playmaking ability. Achane is averaging 4.5 yards per carry and has 37 receptions in 7 games. Good news is, the coaching staff is adjusting and getting the ball in his hands more. In Week 8, he had 58% of the snaps compared to 46% for Raheem Mostert. In week 9, Achane saw 69% of the snaps compared to 23% for Mostert. Some of that had to do with the game situation, but in all Achane is the clear #1 and deserves consideration for MVP and CPT tonight.
Rookie RB Jaylen Wright saw 6 carries last week. But the only way I see him paying off is if there is an injury to one of the top 2 ball carriers.
Tier 1: De’Von Achane
Tier 2: Raheem Mostert
Value: Jaylen Wright
Wide Receiver
The passing game is where you want to attack the Rams. While they have pedestrian stats against the run, their pass D is one of the worst in the league. Los Angeles allows the 6th most fantasy points to WR’s. They also allow 225 passing yards per game which is 8th worst in the league. According to DVOA, they have the 23rd best pass defense. Looking at their DB’s, PFF ranks DB Darious Williams as the 37th best cornerback and their other starting CB is Cobie Durant who is ranked 77th.
And who can forget some of the big games WR’s have had this year already against the Rams. Four receivers have posted 100-yard games, including last week’s 7 catch, 180-yard output by Jaxon Smith Ngigba.
If Hill bears through the pain and winds up playing, he has the best chance to be the 5th WR with a huge game against the Rams. Waddle is always WR2 and performs better with Tua at QB so he’s in play as a Flex spot. Beckham is a nice punt play as he’s going up against his former team which gives him some motivation to play well.
Tier 1: Tyreek Hill
Tier 2: Jaylen Waddle
Punts: Odell Beckham Jr
Tight End
As with the WR’s, the Rams struggle against TE’s too. They allow the 6th most fantasy points to this position. This includes monster games by Brock Bowers and Tucker Kraft.
Jonnu Smith is playing like WR2 for Miami as he’s 3rd on the team in receptions trailing just Tyreek Hill and De’Von Achane. His only issue is he’s found the endzone just once this season. If Hill is healthy, it will be tough for Smith to break the slate. But remember, it’s a showdown so all we need him to do is pop for more than other WR’s in the game. And that’s something that is highly possible based on the Rams coverage schemes.
Tier 1: Jonnu Smith
Tier 2: Durham Smythe
Punt/Fadeable:
LA RAMS
Running Back
It’s beautiful when you get a team and coach that believes in the workhorse running back. And that’s exactly what we have in LA with HC Sean McVay and his star RB Kyren Williams. Last week alone, Williams saw 99% of the snaps. That included 97% of the RB touches. This is clearly Williams backfield and that makes him my top player on the board tonight.
The other thing to consider is that Miami has struggled against the run this year. They are ranked 27th in rush defense DVOA and have allowed 120 yards/game on the ground. The Dolphins have also allowed the 9th most points to RB’s this season as they’ve allowed 10 rushing TD’s to RB’s, tied for 2nd most in the NFL.
Tier 1: Kyren Williams
Tier 2: Don’t waste your time
Wide Receiver
The Rams wide receiver room is finally healthy, and that’s probably the biggest reason for their recent good play as LA has won three straight. The problem is, it’s hard to predict who will be the big game beneficiary as the offense takes what the defense gives them. The other issue is that the Miami DB’s, Jalen Ramsey and Kendall Fuller, for one of the defensive duos in the league. PFF ranks Ramsey as the 2nd best CB this season and Fuller as the 23rd. Combined, along with their other DB’s, the Dolphins have allowed the 4th least points to WR’s. But DVOA isn’t as high on them as they rank the Dolphins 27th in pass defense. So there may be room to attack a formidable part of this team.
I rank Puka as the WR with the highest ceiling based on his ability to get downfield. He’s a threat to break a play from any spot on the field. Kupp is more of the possession type that they’ll move around the formation and create matchups to get him 8-10 targets (or more). Demarcus Robinson had a huge game last week but that was predicated on Puka getting kicked out in the 1st quarter.
Tier 1: Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp
Tier 2: Demarcus Robinson
Cheap Options: Tutu Atwell
Tight End
This was supposed to be a breakout year for Rams TE Colby Parkinson. But he has not broken out. So far this season, he has just one game with more than 50 yards. And he’s been shutout of the endzone. The Dolphins are good against TE’s, allowing the 10th fewest points to that position. I’m fading Parkinson in most of my lineups as the Rams have too many options and the Dolphins are vulnerable against the run so I foresee Parkinson more involved in the blocking game tonight.
Tier 1: Colby Parkinson
Tier 2:
FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—FNF Showdown
I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like Kyren Williams or De’Von Achane. They also have the TD equity and big play potential compared to their peers which is important on FanDuel. Both QB’s could be an option too, as they both have great receiving corps. Remember, you need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top.
On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. My favorite is Kyren Williams but I also like Tyreek Hill, Puka Nacua, and De’Von Achane.
FanDuel
FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Kyren Williams, De’Von Achane
FDMVP Tier 2: Tyreek Hill, Puka Nacua
FDMVP Tier 3: Matt Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Tua Tagovailoa
DraftKings
DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Kyren Williams, De’Von Achane, Tyreek Hill
DK CPT Tier 2: Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp
DK CPT Tier 3: Matt Stafford, Tua Tagovailoa
DK CPT Punt: Jonnu Smith
Flex Rankings Tier 1:
- Kyren Williams
- Puka Nacua
- Tyreek Hill
- Cooper Kupp
- De’Von Achane
- Matt Stafford
- Tua Tagovailoa
Flex Rankings Tier 2: (Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)
- Jaylen Waddle
- Jonnu Smith
- Demarcus Robinson
- Raheem Mostert
- Jason Sanders
- Joshua Karty
- Odell Beckham Jr
Punts/Fadeable: (Don’t play unless desperate)
- Tutu Atwell
- Colby Parkinson
- Dolphins D
- Rams D
- Jaylen Wright
Best Rules for the slate:
- The story of this slate is that we have many stars to choose from and they all see a high volume. There is not a lot of players that fall in the value bucket so you’ll need to choose your stars wisely.
- We are projecting 25+ touches for Kyren Williams. Highest priced player for a reason but make sure you get him in all lineups.
- De’Von Achane saw his highest snap count last week. Dolphins are desperate for a win and need to get their playmaker the ball. Consider him the Dolphins top offensive player tonight.
- I have a feeling this could be a Tyreek Hill game. We’ve seen a receiver put up huge numbers from almost every team the Rams have faced. Remember Jauan Jennings and his 3 TD game?
- I like Puka Nacua the most out of the Rams WR’s. He always carries an injury risk but he’s the big play maker in LA’s receiving room.
- Both QB’s are in play. Neither will rack up big yards on the ground. But the potential for 2+ passing TD’s is real with both signal callers. I would not play both in the same lineup because you need to get the other high-priced players involved. But if you’re going 4/2 or 5/1 with a lineup then definitely consider a QB.
- If you play a 4/2 or 5/1 stack, consider a kicker.
- I’m not playing either defense as they both rank in the bottom 1/3rd of the league in points allowed and yards allowed.
- I like Odell Beckham as my cheap option tonight. He’s made for the bright lights of LA.
- Jonnu Smith or Jaylen Waddle will have a good game. There are not enough balls to go around for both to put up points. So keep them apart in your lineups.
Favorite prop for the game: Tyreek Hill longest reception over 26.5 yards (-110)
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