Dave Gloeckner 
Week 11 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. We have a battle of Texas as the Cowboys and Texans square off in Big D. As for Win Daily, we’ve had multiple takedowns in the one-game slates, i.e. Showdowns, this year. How many other sites can say that? It’s just proof that the work you put in will produce results! So, let’s keep the hot streak going as we have a good one tonight in a battle between Houston and Dallas. Below is my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.
A note about tonight’s game is that we have a rather high point spread and low game total; Houston -7 and 41. This brings into play both kickers and a defense. It also may put stronger emphasis on TD scorers vice high volume cacthers.
For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.
Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/
Note on Quarterbacks:
I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article.
HOUSTON TEXANS
Running Back
The Texans average 119.4 yards/game on the ground, which is good 14th best in football. Conversely, they are just 23rd in run blocking grading and 24th in rush offense DVOA. So even though the yards are decent, they aren’t a very productive running team. But the good news is, they get a chance to improve those numbers tonight as they face the 27th rated rush defense according to DVOA. In fact, the Cowboys allow the 2nd most rushing yards per game at 152.1 and the 2nd most fantasy points to running backs.
So that means we are in full Joe Mixon mode tonight. He’s got the best possible matchup an RB could have besides facing the Carolina Panthers. And while Micah Parsons did return last week, the Boys still got pummeled on the ground allowing 187 rushing yards to the Eagles (130 of that to RB’s). As for Mixon, he received 76% of the snaps last week and 27 of the 28 touches to RB’s. The latter was the second highest for any RB in Week 10. He’s clearly the workhorse and will see the lion’s share of touches tonight.
RB Dameon Pierce returns for the Texans tonight. He’s been out the last two weeks with a groin injury. But in the three weeks he’s suited up to backup Mixon, he’s received just 6 carries total. So I don’t deem him as a threat to stealing away touches from Mixon and I will not consider him in my lineups bases on other value we can find.
Tier 1: Joe Mixon
Tier 2: N/A
Punt: Dameon Pierce
Wide Receiver
The big news for the Texans tonight is the return of WR Nico Collins. Their star WR has been out since week 5 with a hamstring injury. He was activated last week but sat out for precautionary reasons. Reports out of Houston are saying he’s fully healthy and should have no restrictions on routes. On the year, Nico is averaging 23.1 fantasy points, which puts him 2nd in the NFL behind only Ja’Marr Chase. So he’s obviously a targeted player for us.
Tank Dell has 15 catches in the past 3 weeks. He’s clearly the #2 in Houston and could have a big game depending how Dallas decides to cover Nico.
John Metchie was the big winner of the secondary Texans WR”s as he racked up 6 targets in Week 10, en route to 5 catches for 74 yards and a TD.
Xavier Hutchinson will likely fall back to 4th WR duty. He will only provide value if he gets in the endzone as his snap count is projected under 30%.
Tier 1: Nico Collins
Tier 2: Tank Dell, John Metchie
Punts: Xavier Hutchinson
Tight End
The TE position has been a mysterious void for the Texans this year. Dalton Schultz has just 29 receptions and 310 yards in 10 games. And he’s yet to find the endzone. The Cowboys have defended TE’s quite well, allowing the 7th least receiving yards to that position. If they’ve had any issues, it’s the endzone as they’ve allowed 4 TD’s to TE’s (T-8th most). But as we see with Schultz’s stats, the Texans don’t look to the TE’s in the redzone much.
If anything, Cade Stover could be an under the radar look this week. He did get one target in the redzone last
Tier 1: Dalton Schultz
Tier 2:
Punt/Fadeable: Cade Stover
DALLAS COWBOYS
Running Back
The Cowboys really screwed up when they didn’t go after an RB in the offseason. But after their recent embarrassing loss, and their loss of QB Dak Prescott, makes me fully believe they’ll commit to the run tonight. However, the issue is the Houston Texans are 2nd in DVOA against the run. I do think Rico Dowdle will get the majority of the carries but he’s got a very tough matchup so don’t go heavy on him.
Tier 1: Rico Dowdle
Tier 2: Ezekiel Elliott
Wide Receiver
Houston has the 2nd best defense overall. Which leads to them having the 4th best pass defense DVOA. But, they do allow yards and TD’s to WR’s making them 22nd against receivers for fantasy points. This leads to a very tough matchup for Dallas receivers. But not just because of the Texans pass D, but because Cooper Rush is trash. He threw for just 40 yards last week against the Eagles.
I do think Cee Dee Lamb is going to bounce back tonight. He can be moved around and match up against the weakest corner. Plus the Texans play zone a ton which can allow Lamb to find the soft spots.
As for the secondary receivers, the Cowboys paid a price for Mingo and he will see more snaps tonight. So I’ve moved him up into Tier 2.
Tier 1: CeeDee Lamb
Tier 2: Jalen Tolbert, Jonathan Mingo
Cheap Options: Jalen Brooks, Kevontae Turpin,
Tight End
My favorite Cowboys receiver tonight is Jake Ferguson. The Texans give up the 3rd least points to TE’s. But a tight end can be the short passer (Cooper Rush) friend.
Tier 1: Jake Ferguson
Tier 2:
FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—FNF Showdown
I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like Joe Mixon and CeeDee Lamb. They also have the TD equity and big play potential compared to their peers which is important on FanDuel. The WR corps seem to be the best area to get our value and win the slate. Remember, you need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top.
On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. My favorite is Joe Mixon, Nico Collins, CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson.
FanDuel
FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Joe Mixon, CeeDee Lamb
FDMVP Tier 2: Nico Collins, CJ Stroud
FDMVP Tier 3: Cooper Rush, Rico Dowdel, Jake Ferguson
DraftKings
DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Joe Mixon, CJ Stroud, CeeDee Lamb
DK CPT Tier 2: Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Jake Ferguson
DK CPT Tier 3: Tank Dell, Rico Dowdel, TEXANS D
DK CPT Punt: Cooper Rush
Best Rules for the slate:
- The story of this slate is that we have to dial in on a Texans star for CPT. Yes, the Cowboys could produce one but I’m more focused on choosing between Mixon, Stroud, Collins and Texans D.
- Cooper Rush could be a sneaky play. He was terrible against the Eagles but was 5-1 in his previous 6 starts.
- Joe Mixon is easily my favorite CPT. He has a GREAT matchup.
- I have a feeling this could be a Cee Dee Lamb game.
- I like Jake Ferguson as my safest option for the Cowboys receiving game.
- I’m fading the Cowboys run game for the most part.
- If you play a 4/2 or 5/1 stack, consider a kicker.
- Consider playing the Texans D on your slate tonight.
- Remember, this is close to a playoff game for the Cowboys. I think it’ll be low scoring but they will hang tight. That opens you up to playing both kickers.
Favorite prop for the game:
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