Dave Gloeckner 
Week 17 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. The Lions head to San Francisco where is the place they lost the NFC Championship Game last season. Revenge is on their mind as well as the need to keep pace with the Minnesota Vikings for the #1 seed in the NFC. Below is my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.
A note about tonight’s game is that we have a low point spread and high total as Detroit is a 3.5-point favorite with a game total at 51. As for the weather, it will be mild and clear making a good night for football. Temperatures will be in the lwo 50’s with very low winds (7-10 mph).
For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.
Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/
Note on Quarterbacks:
I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article.
DETROIT LIONS
Running Back
With the loss of David Montgomery, the Lions backfield has become much clearer. It’s Jahmyr Gibbs and almost nobody else. Gibbs saw 69% of the snaps and 85% of the touches in Week 16. Craig Reynolds will see some action, as he accounted for 5 touches. But he’s more of a flyer play who will only reach value based on an injury to Gibbs or a long run/catch.
The 49ers are a team you can attack confidently on the ground. They’ve allowed 121 rushing yards per game as well as they 8th most fantasy points to RB’s. DVOA ranks them at 25th overall for rushing defense.
Gibbs is in store for a big game and should be considered for all your lineups as well as CPT.
Tier 1: Jahmyr Gibbs
Tier 2: Craig Reynolds
Punt
Wide Receiver
The Lions will have to choose tonight on how they attack a beleaguered San Fran team. Their pass defense has been a strength, allowing the 3rd least yards per game at 183.3. They’ve also allowed the fewest fantasy points to WR’s. But several receivers have found room against the 49ers, including Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba in recent weeks.
My theory on tonight is Gibbs will have a big game along with 1-2 receivers. I lean Sam LaPorta for one then either Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams or Tim Patrick. I’d play a mix of those four, and not loading up a 3 receiver stack for tonight.
Tier 1: Amon-Ra St. Brown
Tier 2: Jameson Williams,
Punts: Tim Patrick
Tight End
It’s been a down year for Sam LaPorta as he has just one game over 100 yards receiving on the season. But he’s been much more involved in recent weeks, reeling in 19 balls over the last four games with three touchdowns. Based on coverage schemes in San Fran, I think this could be a big game for LaPorta. I like him over Williams (who relies on the deep ball) and Patrick.
Tier 1: Sam LaPorta
Tier 2: Ben Wright
Punt/Fadeable:
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Running Back
Isaac Guerendo is back for the 49ers which is good news. Without him last week, the 49ers managed jsut 30 yards on 9 carries from their running backs. Detroit has been good against the run all season, allowing the 5th fewest fantasy points to that position. But injuries have depleted their front line and second level. Just two weeks ago, James Cook ran for 105 yards on 14 carries against their vaunted D.
Tier 1: Isaac Guerendo
Tier 2: Patrick Taylor Jr.
Wide Receiver
The way to beat the Lions has been through the air as they allow the 2nd most fantasy points to WR’s. Detroit has also allowed the 5th most passing yards at 240.4 per game. Last week we saw the 49ers make a concerted effort to get Deebo Samuel involved in the offense. I think they’ll do that again tonight and he will see 10+ targets against this Lions D. Also consider Jauan Jennings who leads the 49ers in receiving yards and TD’s. He’s slowed down of late but should have an opportunity for big plays down the field against a Lions D that is missing key players in the defensive backfield.
Tier 1: Deebo Samuel, Jauan Jennings
Tier 2: Ricky Pearsall
Cheap Options: Chris Conley
Tight End
The Lions allow the 2nd fewest points to TE’s this season. George Kittle is not your typical TE so do I expect him to outscore the Lions average output. However, the Lions have given up the fewest yards to TE’s so he’ll have to produce by scoring a TD against this tough coverage unit.
Tier 1: George Kittle
Tier 2:
FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—FNF Showdown
I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like Jahmyr Gibbs. The QB’s are both in play as Goff should have big plays available and Purdy is going against the 2nd worst pass defense in the NFL. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top.
On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. I still believe Gibbs is your best options as well as St. Brown or Deebo Samuel. The 2 QB’s are a good option at the CPT spot as well.
FanDuel
FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Deebo Samuel
FDMVP Tier 2: Jauan Jennings, Jared Goff, Brock Purdy
FDMVP Tier 3: Isaac Guerendo, Sam LaPorta
DraftKings
DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Deebo Samuel
DK CPT Tier 2: Jauan Jennings, Jared Goff, Brock Purdy
DK CPT Tier 3: Isaac Guerendo, Sam LaPorta, George Kittle
DK CPT Punt: Jameson Williams
Best Rules for the slate:
- The weather will be decent for football and conducive for the teams to throw the ball.
- I’ll have Jahmyr Gibbs as my most rostered player and highest percentage of CPTs. His volume and time of the field is top 5 in the NFL. And the 49ers have been bleeding yards to RB’s all year.
- For the 49ers WR’s, I prefer Samuel the most based on how the 49ers played last week. He also will see 1-2 carries and potentially one near the goal line.
- St. Brown should have a big day against the 49ers. San Fran is good at defending the deep ball so Detroit will have to look for the underneath routes.
- Sam LaPorta is inline for a big game tonight. I see the 49ers selling out on the run and leaving the 2nd level open.
- Both QB’s are good options and I lean to Goff for the bigger output. The 49ers D hasn’t been good of late and has lost TOP in four of their last five games.
- I’ll consider both kickers, but Jake Moody is a mess and the 49ers have nothing to play for. I could see them avoiding FG’s. Therefore, I will play more Jake Bates and he’s only $200 more in salary.
Favorite prop for the game: TBD
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