Dave Gloeckner 
Week 14 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. We have a battle of two of the more disappointing teams in the NFL as the 4-8 Bengals travel to the 5-7 Cowboys. As for Win Daily, we’ve had multiple takedowns in the one-game slates, i.e. Showdowns, this year. How many other sites can say that? It’s just proof that the work you put in will produce results! So, let’s keep the hot streak going as we have a good one tonight in a battle between the Bengals and Cowboys. Below is my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.
A note about tonight’s game is that we have a high point spread and low total as Cincy is a 4.5-point favorite with a game total at 49.5. With a high total and moderate spread, we are anticipating a shootout in Big D.
For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.
Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/
Note on Quarterbacks:
I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article.
CINCINNATI BENGALS
Running Back
The Bengals started the season with a shared backfield, splitting reps and carries between Zack Moss and Chase Brown. However, there is no longer a sharing of the ball as Chase Brown has taken over the reigns and a full workload. In fact, Brown logged 81% of the offensive snaps last week and 94% of the RB touches. The 81% of snaps was the 4th highest for RB’s in the NFL last week, trailing just Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley and Alvin Kamara. That’s great news for fantasy owners and Brown is getting the snaps and touches in one of the best offenses.
As for his matchup tonight, the Cowboys have been one of the worst rushing defenses all season. They allow the 2nd most rushing yards per game, at 147.6. Additionally, they allow the 7th most fantasy points to RB’s, including the 2nd most rushing TD’s allowed at 14. As for DVOA, they rank the Cowboys as the 5th wors rush defense.
In short, it’s Chase Brown’s backfield and he should be heavily considered as a CPT tonight based on matchup and predicted opportunities.
Tier 1: Chase Brown
Tier 2:
Punt: Khalil Herbert
Wide Receiver
We know the Bengals have firepower at the receiver position, led by Ja’Marr Chase who is 2nd in the NFL with 1,142 receiving yards. Tee Higgins is a great #2 wideout and has scored a touchdown in three straight games. In all, the Bengals lead the league in passing yards per game at 264.4.
As for Dallas, they are ranked 21st in pass defense DVOA. Some of their numbers are misleading as they allow just 212.1 yards per game passing, which is 10th fewest in the NFL. But their pass coverage is rated as the 7th worst. And they could be missing DB Trevon Diggs tonight as he’s listed as questionable.
The Cowboys have been particularly vulnerable against RB’s and TE’s in the passing game. And while #1 WR’s have had some big games against them (McClaurin, Nabers, AJ Brown), the biggest games have come from the #2 WR’s.
- Rashid Shaheed (Week 2): 4/96 yards and 1 TD
- Wandale Robinson (Week 4): 11/71 yards
- Jameson Williams (Week 6): 3/76 yards and 1 TD
- Darnell Mooney (Week 9): 5/88 yards and 1 TD
The numbers are there for either Chase or Higgins to have a big game. While I could see both exploding, especially if Diggs is out, I’m going to typically target one of these and pair with QB, RB and TE. Some lineups I will look to do a straight Higgins and Chase plus Burrow without the RB.
Tier 1: Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins
Tier 2: Andrei Iosivas
Punts:
Tight End
Mike Gesicki was shutout 2 weeks ago against the Chargers. But outside of that game, he’s averaging 5.5 catches and 63.5 yards per game over the past 1.5 months.
The Cowboys have allowed six receiving TD’s to TE’s which is good for 5th most in the NFL. Additionally, they have allowed TE’s to catch 77% of their targets, which is 4th highest in the league. So if the Cowboys have to use extra coverage tonight against Chase, I expect Gesicki to be the biggest beneficiary.
Tier 1: Mike Gesicki
Tier 2: Tanner Hudson
Punt/Fadeable:
DALLAS COWBOYS
Running Back
The Cowboys RB situation has been well documented all year, as they chose to sign Ezekial Elliott and pair him with a underused Rico Dowdle instead of targeting a big name free agent RB, like Derek Henry or Saquon Barkley. But the good news is, the ‘Boys have finally settled on Dowdle as their main workhorse and he’s paying off in big ways for fantasy owners. And at the exact right time of year. Last week, Dowdle saw 70% of the snaps and 97% of the touches. In fact, he had the 6th most touches for RB’s in Week 13 with 25. That’s coming off a week in where he saw 22 touches and 88% of the load. So it doesn’t look like a one week occurrence but more a shift in philosophy.
The Bengals have a terrible defense. They’ve allowed 113 points in the past three games, all losses. They allow the 2nd most points per game at 28.3. Additionally, Cincy allows the 5th most yards per game at 369.2. The run defense isn’t good by any measure allowing the 10th most yards on the ground per game at 128.2. They rank in the middle of the pack for fantasy points allowed to RB’s, but the key stat is they’ve surrendered 12 rushing TD’s to backs, good for 5th most.
Tier 1: Rico Dowdle
Tier 2: Ezekial Elliott
Wide Receiver
As noted above, Cincy’s terrible defense shows up in many ways, including the passing game. They allow the 6th most passing yards per game at 241.0. And DVOA has their pass defense ranked as 30th overall.
Even when the matchup presents itself, the Cowboys still throw the ball more than they run. On the season, they throw the ball 66% of the time which is 5th highest in the league. So I fully expect HC Mike McCarthy to drop Cooper Rush back to throw more than 35 times tonight. Which means we’ll need some Cowboy WR’s for our DFS lineups.
The top target is Cee Dee Lamb. And he’s been cleared to play which is good news for Dallas.
But Brandin Cooks returned last week and immediately made an impact by scoring a TD on Thanksgiving Day. He’s going to be involved more heavily tonight and has the chance to put up a big game.
And we must consider KaVontae Turpin who has exploded on the scene of late. Flashing speed like Tyreek Hill, the Boys will try to find ways to get Turpin the ball in space. He even received a rushing attempt last week and we could see Dallas try that again tonight on MNF.
Tier 1: Cee Dee Lamb
Tier 2: Brandin Cooks, KaVontae Turpin
Cheap Options: Jalen Tolbert
Tight End
The Bengals allow the 3rd most fantasy points to TE’s. The big boys have caught 8 TD’s against Cincy’s D, good for 2nd most in the league.
Tier 1: Jake Ferguson
Tier 2: Luke Schoonmaker
FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—FNF Showdown
I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Rico Dowdle or Cee Dee Lamb. The QB’s are both in play as Rush and Burrow will look to throw the ball downfield. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top.
On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. I still believe the 2 QB’s are your best options at the CPT spot as well.
FanDuel
FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Joe Burrow, Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Cee Dee Lamb
FDMVP Tier 2: Rico Dowdle, Cooper Rush, Tee Higgins
FDMVP Tier 3: Mike Gesicki, Jake Ferguson, Brandin Cooks
DraftKings
DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Joe Burrow, Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Cee Dee Lamb
DK CPT Tier 2: Rico Dowdle, Cooper Rush, Tee Higgins
DK CPT Tier 3: Mike Gesicki, Jake Ferguson, Brandin Cooks
DK CPT Punt: Brandon Aubrey
Best Rules for the slate:
- No weather concerns as game is being played in Dallas at AT&T Stadium. Great environment for points. The Cowboys haven’t allowed less than 20 points in a home game this year. And the Bengals are giving up 38 points per game in their last 3.
- I’ll have Chase Brown as my most rostered player and highest percentage of CPTs. His volume and time of the field is top 5 in the NFL. And Cowboys are not good against pass catching RB’s.
- For the Bengals WR’s, I prefer Higgins to Chase just based on what I believe DC Zimmer will try to do to limit Chase’s touches. And he comes at $2K less in salary on DK. But both are in play.
- Joe Burrow leads the NFL with 30 passing TD’s. He has a great matchup tonight and will be played heavily in most of my lineups.
- Don’t sleep on Cooper Rush. The Cowboys throw the ball 66% of the time. Russell Wilson passed for over 400 yards against this Bengals D last week.
- The Bengals are vulnerable against the long ball. That make Brandin Cooks in play for a big night.
- Consider a kicker with the team you have more players on. If someone gets down, they will avoid kicking FG’s.
- The Cowboys will need to get KaVontae Turpin the ball at least 4 times. He’s a home run threat every time he touches it. And you can get him at a great price.
- Like Brown, this is Rico Dowdle’s backfield and no one else. Great upside based on volume and opponent.
- Don’t sleep on the TE’s. Both at under $6K is good value and you can fit them in with 2-3 players up top.
Favorite prop for the game: TBD
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