Dave Gloeckner 
Week 6 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. We almost nailed last night’s winning lineup, just missing out by 5 points. And if you saw, it was another night where a lesser owned CPT was the key pick in DK (Tyrone Tracy). So let’s keep the hot streak going as we have a good one tonight in a battle between AFC East rivals. While we’re all tired of seeing the Jets in primetime, we have a lot of information on them seeing they’ve played in a solo slot three of their first five games. Below is my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.
For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.
Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/
Note on Quarterbacks:
I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article.
BUFFALO BILLS
Running Back
The Jets are a confounding case on defense. We know they create good pressure and have a solid defensive backfield. So teams tend to run on them more than others. And when done correctly, teams have moved the ball efficiently on the ground against New York. Just go back to Week 1 and watch the Jordan Mason show. And the advanced numbers support that as they rank 31st in rushing defense grading according to PFF and are 21st in rush defense DVOA. But the fantasy numbers tell a slightly different story as they allow the 10th least points to RB’s. That’s partly due to the fact they’ve only allowed two rushing TD’s this season.
The Bills are a tough team to predict, from a running game standpoint, because Josh Allen often skews their numbers. They receive a run blocking grade that is 20th best in the league. But their rush offense is 12th according to DVOA and they average 118.3 yards/game on the ground, which is 15th best in the league. However, Allen is the second leading rusher on the team and when you take away his stats, the Bills RB’s average just 3.81 yards/carry.
As for James Cook, he’s had a solid season but most of his points came in one game, when he scored 3 TD’s against the Dolphins. The confusing part is his snap share. Since week 1, he’s seen the following snap percentages; 47%, 50%, 56% and 59%. Good news is that number is trending up. But it still seems low for what should be the lead back in a good offense. What this means to me, is that in a single game showdown, we could get some sneaky value in the second tier of Bills RB’s.
One major note to consider is that James Cook is questionable for tonight with a foot injury. If he doesn’t go, we could get some real value in Ty Johnson and Ray Davis. I lean Johnson just because he’s had the higher snap counts recently (though Davis has more touches in limited action). Just seems like the Bills trust Johnson more with Davis being a rookie.
Tier 1: James Cook
Tier 2: Ty Johnson, Ray Davis
Wide Receiver
It’s tough to attack the Jets in the passing game due to the presence of Sauce Gardner. But they have more than just Sauce in the defensive backfield. While some WR’s have seen success through the air, the Jets rank #1 in passing yards allowed per game at just 136.6. They also allow the 5th least fantasy points to WR’s. Digging deeper we find the Jets rank #2 in pass coverage according to PFF and have the top-rated cover cornerback in DJ Reed (Sauce is 47th this year).
The Bills have no true #1 WR’s. Which impacts their ability to move the ball down the field as they lack big plays. We have seen their first-round pick, Keon Coleman, grow over the first five weeks as he has a TD in two of the last three weeks. But his target share is limited as seen just 16% of the targets in those three weeks. Leading WR Khalil Shakir is questionable tonight with an ankle injury. That same injury kept him out of Week 5’s game at Houston which led to Josh Allen’s worst completion percentage of his career (9 of 30 for 131 yards passing). If he plays, Shakir provides value as he’s scored at least 10.2 fantasy points in every game this year.
This is a tough area to attack the Jets but I do believe one of the Bills WR’s will be needed in a winning lineup. Mack Hollins is my primary choice of the cheaper options as he had 6 targets in each of the past 2 games.
Tier 1: Khalil Shakir
Tier 2: Keon Coleman, Mack Hollins
Punts: Curtis Samuel
Tight End
The Jets have allowed just 4.1 fantasy points per game to TE’s, which is 2nd least in the league. They’ve allowed just 15 catches for 128 yards and 0 TD’s.
This is an extremely tough matchup for Dalton Kincaid. But he did face the Jets twice last season and brought in 10 catches for 72 yards. Last week, with Shakir out, he led the team with 6 targets. So I like him as receiver #1 tonight for the Bills as Josh Allen’s ability to break the pocket will allow Kincaid to find space in the secondary.
Tier 1: Dalton Kincaid
Tier 2:
Punt/Fadeable:
NEW YORK JETS
Running Back
The Bills are a team that you can beat on the ground. Injuries to the defensive line have been a factor. But they’ve been susceptible to good running games for years now (finished 17th in fantasy points to RB’s in 2023). This season, they are allowing the most points to fantasy RB’s. And that is primarily due to their inability to cover backs in the passing game. On the season, RB’s are averaging 7.2 receptions per game against the Bills. This alone impacts DK rankings due to the nature of their scoring system.
Breece Hall has been a major disappointment as he has just 197 yards rushing this season. In his last two games, he has just 27 yards and has averaged just 5.3 fantasy points per game. I do expect that to change tonight because of the vulnerability of the Bills run defense but also Hall’s ability to catch the ball in the passing game. He’s averaging 4.2 catchers per game.
Tier 1: Breece Hall
Tier 2: Braelon Allen
Wide Receiver
The Bills have good defensive numbers against WR’s. But some of that has been hidden by crooked scoreboards or bad QB play. They do allow 198.4 passing yards per game, 19th most, but we’ve seen better QB’s exploit them (see CJ Stroud last week).
The issues with the Jets passing offense is they play slow. New York is 18th in pace, averaging 27.2 seconds between plays. They also don’t go no-huddle much, ranking 20th at 7.9%. Maybe that all changes tonight with a new play-caller at the helm. But I still think this will be a more deliberate attack, as is the norm with QB Aaron Rodgers who loves to read the defense pre-snap.
Garrett Wilson is the primary as he saw a ridiculous amount of targets last game with 22. Allen Lazard had an impressive 10 targets against Minnesota and leads the team with 4 TD’s. Mike Williams is still finding his room but is ready to have a big game soon.
Tier 1: Garrett Wilson
Tier 2: Allen Lazard, Mike Williams
Tier 3/Cheap Options: Xavier Gipson
Tight End
The Jets primarily use Tyler Conklin at TE. He has 17 receptions on the season but no TD’s. The Bills have been good against TE’s allowing just 10.2 fantasy points per game. Only Cardinals TE Trey McBride has caught more than 4 balls against the Bills. And only Jacksonville TE Brenton Strange has found the endzone. I think more highly of Conklin than others and will have him in some of my lineups I stack a Jets passing attack.
Tier 1: Tyler Conklin
Tier 2:
FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—FNF Showdown
I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson or Josh Allen. I’m passing on Aaron Rodgers at the MVP position because he doesn’t get enough big plays in the passing game. Remember, you need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top.
On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. My favorite is Breece Hall but will look at Josh Allen, Garrett Wilson and Dalton Kincaid.
FanDuel
FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall, Josh Allen
FDMVP Tier 2: Aaron Rodgers, Dalton Kincaid, James Cook
FDMVP Tier 3: Allen Lazard, Khalil Shakir (questionable), Mack Hollins
DraftKings
DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Breece Hall, Josh Allen
DK CPT Tier 2: Aaron Rodgers, Dalton Kincaid, James Cook, Garrett Wilson
DK CPT Tier 3: Allen Lazard, Mack Hollins
DK CPT Punt:
Flex Rankings Tier 1:
- Breece Hall
- Garrett Wilson
- Josh Allen
- James Cook
- Dalton Kincaid
- Aaron Rodgers
- Allen Lazard
- Khalil Shakir (questionable)
Flex Rankings Tier 2: (Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)
- Bills D
- Jets D
- Mike WIlliams
- Keon Coleman
- Tyler Conklin
- Mack Hollins
- Braelon Allen
- Tyler Bass
- Greg Zuerlein
- Ty Johnson
Punts/Fadeable: (Don’t play unless desperate)
Best Rules for the slate:
- Breece Hall is my favorite play tonight. He’s been criminally under-used and I look for tonight to be his breakout game.
- Josh Allen is a one-man show and will likely be the highest scorer on the slate. I look for him to go over his rushing yards adding value to his DFS stats and points.
- Even though it’s a tough matchup on paper, I think Dalton Kincaid will be the #1 Bills receiver.
- I do like James Cook, and think he’ll be a factor in the game. I’m just worried about his TD equity. He’ll mostly be in my flex group and not MVP/CPT.
- If James Cook is OUT, I’m all in on Ty Johnson. He’ll provide salary relief and see over 60% of snaps.
- Don’t be afraid to play one of the Bills less heralded WR’s. I’m leaning Mack Hollins as my favorite of the group.
- Aaron Rodgers won me a showdown earlier this year as a CPT. I’m not going back to the well as a CPT but do think you can use him as a flex.
- If you fade Garrett Wilson, look to a combo of Allen Lazard and Tyler Conklin. This would be a good zag from what the public will do.
- Both Kickers are in play – Total is 41.5 and the weather is nice but there is some wind predicted. Kicking game could be a factor tonight.
- Consider one defense in a 4/2 or 5/1 roster alignment
Favorite prop for the game: Aaron Rodgers over 0.5 INTS (-110)
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