Dave Gloeckner 
Week 12 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. We have a brotherly affair as the Harbaugh brothers face off for family supremacy. Besides the head coaches stealing the show, these are both very good football teams that are battling for seeding in the AFC Playoffs. As for Win Daily, we’ve had multiple takedowns in the one-game slates, i.e. Showdowns, this year. How many other sites can say that? It’s just proof that the work you put in will produce results! So, let’s keep the hot streak going as we have a good one tonight in a battle between the Ravens and Chargers. Below is my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.
A note about tonight’s game is that we have a low point spread and high total in Baltimore -2.5 and 51 points. That is a perfect recipe for a back and forth game which adds many players into our pool.
For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.
Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/
Note on Quarterbacks:
I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article.
BALTIMORE RAVENS
Running Back
Until last night, the Ravens had the NFL’s leading rusher in Derek Henry. But after Saquon Barkley’s massive SNF game, Henry is now in 2nd and a healthy 207 yards away from the Eagles RB. But that doesn’t overshadow the amazing season that Henry is having at age 30. The Ravens RB is averaging 107 yards per game rushing and has scored a TD in all eleven games this season. He’s proving that there is a lot more left in his tank.
As for the Chargers rush D, they allow the 10th least rushing yards per game in the league at 110.5. And heading into Week 12, they allowed the 3rd lowest fantasy points per game to RB’s. But advanced metrics do see some weak points in those stats as PFF ranks the Chargers 12th in rush defense and DVOA has LA at 15th.
One thing to keep an eye on is the Chargers injury report tonight. LB Denzel Perryman is listed as out. And edge rush Khalil Mack is questionable. That leaves the front seven somewhat thin and vulnerable to a viscous running attack like the one Baltimore deploys.
Also in play is Justice Hill. The 2nd string RB for the Ravens saw a 49% snap usage in Week 11 which was tied with Henry. The game script led to that but it is worth noting as Baltimore has sat Henry for long stretches in previous games too.
Tier 1: Derrick Henry
Tier 2: Justice Hill
Punt:
Wide Receiver
The Ravens have the 4th highest run/pass ratio in the NFL. They will still beat you in the air, but their preferred offensive strategy is to beat you with the legs of Henry, Jackson and Hill. And I honestly believe that could be the strategy tonight as the Chargers have a solid pass rush and defense. The Chargers have the 4th highest pass coverage rating in the NFL according to PFF. And DVOA ranks the Chargers as the 6th best pass D. A lot of that is due to DB’s Kristian Fulton and Tarheeb Still who rank in the top 25 in pass defense this season.
Ultimately, the Ravens do have speed at WR and we saw that produce big problems for the Chargers last week against the Bengals. They were beat deep on several occasions and I see the Ravens trying to take those shots tonight too. The main producer is Zay Flowers, and he is fully in play for all slates. But Rashod Bateman has been a consistent #2 and has led the Ravens in target shares in three games this season. He’s also second on the team with 4 TD receptions.
Tier 1: Zay Flowers
Tier 2: Rashod Bateman
Punts: Nelson Agholor (deep threat who could see one to two opportunities)
Tight End
Since Week 4, Mark Andrews has stepped up his game. He’s averaging 3.8 catches and 44.7 yards per game in that stretch. More importantly, he’s scored 5 TD’s in those 7 games. Isaiah Likely is also in play as he returned with a big outing last week in Pittsburgh, hauling in 4 catches for 75 yards.
The Chargers have allowed the 4th least fantasy points to TE’s this year. They shut out Mike Gesicki from the Bengals last week. And they haven’t allowed at TD to TE’s this year.
While we’ll all be tempted to snag a Ravens TE, I am probably going to fade this position for the most part and focus on the running attack and 1-2 WR’s.
Tier 1: Mark Andrews
Tier 2: Isaiah Likely
Punt/Fadeable:
LA CHARGERS
Running Back
The way to attack the Ravens is through the air. Baltimore allows just 77.5 yards per game on the ground which is 2nd best in football. This could be due to their terrible pass D and teams tend not to run (2nd lowest attempts in league). But the advanced metrics also like Baltimore’s run D as they rank 3rd overall in PFF and 6th in DVOA.
The Chargers do have a solid rushing attack but I believe it is closer to a shared backfield than last week’s stats will show. JK Dobbins hardly touched the ball but got to his numbers with a late TD run. Gus Edwards was the back on the field early in the game. And for some idiotic reason, Hasaan Haskins has seen four goal line carries in the past 2 weeks.
I’d tread carefully here against a really good Ravens D. My preferred option is Edwards but I don’t have high confidence in any of them. Even if it is a revenge match.
Tier 1: JK Dobbins, Gus Edwards
Tier 2: Hasaan Haskins
Wide Receiver
As we mentioned earlier, you attack Baltimore through the air. They prefer man-to-man and frankly, they don’t do it well. Teh Ravens allow the most yards passing per game at 284.5. Additionally, they allow the most fantasy points to WR’s.
Ladd McConkey is questionable tonight with a shoulder injury. So we have to keep an eye on that. But Quentin Johnson is the one to keep a tighter eye on. He has 6 TD catches this season and has recorded a touchdown catch in each of the last three games. He’s the deep threat in this offense as he saw eight targets last week.
Tier 1: Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnson
Tier 2: Josh Palmer
Cheap Options: Derius Davis
Tight End
Will Dissly had a huge game last week going for 4 catches and 80 yards against the Bengals. No surprise here, but Baltimore is bad against TE’s too. They’ve allowed the most receiving yards to that position coming into Week 11.
Tier 1: Will Dissly
Tier 2:
FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—FNF Showdown
I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like Lamar Jackson, Derek Henry or Justin Herbert. The QB’s look to have the best upside based on the opposing defenses weaknesses. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top.
On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. I still believe the 2 QB’s are your best options at the CPT spot as well.
FanDuel
FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Derek Henry, Lamar Jackson
FDMVP Tier 2: Justin Herbert, Ladd McConkey
FDMVP Tier 3: Zay Flowers, Quentin Johnson, Will Dissly
DraftKings
DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Derek Henry, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert
DK CPT Tier 2: Ladd McConkey, Zay Flowers
DK CPT Tier 3: Quentin Johnson, Will Dissly, Justice Hill
DK CPT Punt: Mark Andrews, Josh Palmer
Best Rules for the slate:
- The story of this slate is that we have two QB’s who can attack the other defense. I expect a heavy dose of Lamar Jackson running the ball. Also, you may have heard but he’s awesome on Prime Time games.
- Don’t sleep on Justin Herbert. He faces the worst pass defense in the league. He lit up the Bengals last week who look like the Steel Curtain compared to the Ravens.
- Derek Henry scores TD’s. And to keep the Chargers pass rush at arms length, I expect the Ravens to use a heavy does of Henry tonight. I LOVE him in all spots but we have to find a way to fit him in with LJack on most lineups.
- Ladd McConkey is an impressive rookie. If he plays, he’ll be my favorite Chargers WR.
- Quentin Johnson is seeing the field and a high rate of targets. He has a chance to break the slate.
- I’m fading the defenses tonight.
- If you play a 4/2 or 5/1 stack, consider a kicker.
- Keep an eye on Nelson Agholor. I think the Ravens will take 1-2 deep shots to a cheap option.
- Justice Hill is a copy cat of Chase Brown. And we saw Brown have a big game last week against LA. If fading Henry, put Hill in your lineup. I don’t like both in the same lineup.
Favorite prop for the game:
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