Dave Gloeckner 
Week 2 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. And how lucky am I to be able to breakdown the showdown slate of the team I’m most familiar with as the Falcons travel to Philly to take on the Eagles in primetime. In a scheduling oddity, this will be the 3rd season in a row that Kirk Cousins plays in Philadelphia on MNF in Week 2. Simply put, even without AJ Brown, I expect there to be points scored tonight down on Pattison Ave. So let’s dig in and see what areas to exploit and how to win some money in the DFS Showdown market. In this article, I’ll share my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.
For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.
Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/
Note on Quarterbacks:
I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article.
ATLANTA FALCONS
Running Back
We’ve all been waiting for over a year for the Falcons to unleash the beast. After drafting RB Bijan Robinson in the top 10 of the 2023 draft, he was criminally underused in Arthur Smith’s system last year. And while he didn’t explode in Week 1 of this year, Bijan did get 23 touches in his first game under the Raheem Morris regime. Even better news was that Robinson received 89% of the snaps as backup RB Tyler Allgier saw just 3 touches and 18% snap count.
The better news is that the Falcons face an Eagles defense that looked similar to last season’s version against the run, POUROUS! In 2023, the Eagles ended up 22nd in rush defense DVOA. But they allowed the 10th lowest yards on the ground. Why the gap in numbers? That was because they were historically bad against the pass and teams ran the ball at the 5th lowest rate in the league against Philly. So, it masked their real inefficiency upfront.
This season, the Eagles invested in the defensive backfield to improve the horrendous pass D. And while that looked better in Week 1, it showed the gaps upfront as Green Bay ran for 163 yards on just 21 carries. PFF ranked the Eagles 28th run defense and they earned the 30th ranked rush defense in DVOA. For those reasons, as well as a new LB corps, I expect the Eagles to struggle against the run early in the season.
Bijan could be in line for a career high number tonight as long as the Falcons commit and stick with the run.
Tier 1: Bijan Robinson
Tier 2: None
Wide Receiver
There are a few concerning signs with the Falcons passing offense coming out of Week 1. The first is the overall health of newly signed QB Kirk Cousins. He looked immobile and was inaccurate in his return from a torn Achilles tendon. The other concern was the offensive line, as it was attacked and exposed by an aggressive Steeler defensive front. The Falcons OL was assigned a pass block grading of 44.3 for that game, which was 2nd worst in the league.
As highlighted in the RB section above, the Eagles invested heavily in their defensive backfield in the offseason. They resigned CB Avonte Maddox and used two early draft picks on highly regarded DB’s Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean. The Birds are also banking on CB Isiah Rogers making an impact, Rogers was suspended for the entire 2023 season for gambling but was ranked as a top 20 defensive back the season prior.
Last week, the Packers were able to get big chunks in the passing game due to some defensive breakdowns. This happened mainly with their inside WR’s, namely Jayden Reed. Darius Slay was solid in coverage grading out as the 19th best DB in Week 1. But Avonte Maddox was attacked and exposed as he ended up 89th in DB ranking according to PFF. I’ll look to get Atlanta’s slot receivers involved tonight and play Drake London much lighter than most due to his matchup with Slay.
Of note, Ray-Ray McCloud led the team in targets (6) and had 27.3% of the overall targets to pass catchers.
Tier 1: Darnell Mooney
Tier 2: Drake London, Ray-Ray McCloud
Punts:
Tight End
The Eagles historically stink against TE’s. Green Bay did not expose that in Week 1 as they got just two catches out of their Tight Ends against Philly. That was primarily because of the Eagles new LB Zack Baun who had 15 tackles and ranked in the top 10 in coverage in Week 1. However, the Eagles other LB, Nakobe Dean, ranked 74th out of 75 LB’s overall. So there’s opportunity to be had for Kyle Pitts tonight if the Falcons are able to use motion and get the right matchups. For that reason, I think Pitts is the best receiver to use tonight for Atlanta.
Tier 1: Kyle Pitts
Tier 2:
Punt/Fadeable:
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Running Back
There’s nobody in the league having a harder start to the season than NY Giants General Manager Joe Schoen. While giving QB Daniel Jones the bag looks to be a critical error. His handling of the Saquon Barkley situation could haunt this team for years to come. Barkley debuted in Eagles green in Week 1 and put up a career game, totaling 132 yards and scoring three touchdowns against the Packers. He also saw 80% of the snaps and collected 93% of the touches. Which just signifies he’s the featured back in Philly and has no worries about sharing the ball.
He’ll have a tougher job tonight as Atlanta employs a strong defensive front. While they allowed 137 rushing yards to the Steelers in Week 1, it was on 41 carries. Because of that, they rated #8 in run defense per PFF and #6 in rushing DVOA. This aligns well to last season as they ended 11th in rush defense DVOA and allowed just 4.0 yds/carry which was 9th best in the NFL.
I still like Saquon tonight as the Eagles O Line is a top 5 unit in football. They ranked 5th best in run blocking in Week 1 and will continue to get better as C Cam Jurgens eases into the role of taking over for legendary Jason Kelce.
Tier 1: Saquon Barkley
Tier 2: Will Shipley (Punt Play)
Wide Receiver
The big news for tonight is staring WR AJ Brown has been ruled out with a hamstring injury. This opens up potential for several Eagles WR’s to be the breakout player in tonight’s showdown. To me, this is the spot you have to win tonight in order to hit big in GPP’s.
If there was one major concern for the Falcons, it was the ability to pressure the QB. Atlanta has just 42 sacks in 2023 which was 22nd in the NFL. By drafting QB Michael Penix in the top 10, they passed on premium edge rush talent. Which forced them to make a move in the trade market. And they did so by making a deal with NE to acquire Matthew Judon. While Judon played well, it didn’t drastically change the issue. Atlanta ranked 31st in pass rush rate in Week 1.
On the other end, is a very good Eagles O Line. As we discussed above, this is top 5 unit in the league. Besides their propensity to open holes for RB’s, they also pass block very well as this unit ranked 2nd best in that category in Week 1.
So this looks like the biggest mismatch on paper. Meaning QB Jalen Hurts should have plenty of time to make good decisions and find the open receiver in Kellen Moore’s offense.
Jahan Dotson didn’t catch a ball in Week 1 but that will change this week. He’s had 9 days between games to further digest the offense. I’m looking for him to have a HUGE night in AJ Brown’s absence. New out of Philly is that rookie WR Johnny Wilson will get snaps tonight as WR3. Wilson is a big bodied receiver from FSU. His biggest flaw is he has big drops in big moments. But he could be a target in shorter fields, especially the endzone, so consider him as a cheap play tonight.
One longshot to also consider is WR Britian Covey. He returns kicks for the Eagles and keeps making the roster as a 5th WR. They like his speed, former track star, and could use him in some WR screen and jet sweep scenarios. Also, Wilson has a questionable tag so if he’s out this moves Covey into serious play.
Tier 1: DeVonta Smith, Jahan Dotson
Tier 2: Johnny Wilson
Tight End
Dallas Goedert should be used more tonight as the Eagles will need to adjust their gameplan for life without Brown. Atlanta uses a 3-4 defense with two primary coverage LB’s in Kaden Elliss and Troy Anderson. Elliss graded the best but was ranked just 30th among LB’s in Week 1. Additionally, Steelers TE Pat Freiermuth was targeted four times in Week 1 and caught each one.
Tier 1: Dallas Goedert
FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—FNF Showdown
I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley or Jalen Hurts. I’m passing on Kirk Cousins at the MVP position because of his lack of mobility versus an aggressive Eagles pass rush. Remember, you need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top.
On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. Last night we saw Nico Collins as the best Captain and he was in the top 3 in salary. So I can see a scenario where we go after a top RB, or Hurts, as our CPT. One other option is to take an Eagles WR, instead of Barkley, at CPT as either Smith or Dotson could be the big winner tonight with the Falcons struggling in Week 1 in creating pass rush and thus exposing their DBs in coverage.
FanDuel
FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley
FDMVP Tier 2: Jalen Hurts, DeVonta Smith
FDMVP Tier 3: Kyle Pitts, Jahan Dotson
DraftKings
DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Bijan Robinson, Jalen Hurts
DK CPT Tier 2: Saquon Barkley, Jahan Dotson (salary relief)
DK CPT Tier 3: DeVonta Smith, Kyle Pitts, Darnell Mooney
DK CPT Punt: Ray-Ray McCloud, Dallas Goedert
Flex Rankings Tier 1:
- Jalen Hurts
- Bijan Robinson
- Saquon Barkley
- DeVonta Smith
- Kyle Pitts
- Jahan Dotson
- Darnell Mooney
- Ray-Ray McCloud
Flex Rankings Tier 2: (Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)
- Kirk Cousins
- Drake London
- Jake Elliott
- Dallas Goedert
- Younghoe Koo
- Eagles D
- Johnny Wilson
Punts/Fadeable: (Don’t play unless desperate)
- Will Shipley
- Falcons D
- Britian Covey
Best Rules for the slate:
- Play at least one stud RB, likely both. I like Bijan to have the best overall game but that doesn’t mean he has to be your CPT if someone of lesser value pops and provides room to roster Barkley and Bijan and Hurts/Smith.
- PLAY JAHAN DOTSON. Like last MNF, when Jordan Mason popped for CMAC, we have an opportunity to hit big on someone $4K or less.
- Play the Falcons second and third WR’s. Eagles struggled covering the slot and weak side in Week 1.
- Only play 1 QB, or none. I prefer Hurts and think he’ll have a solid game.
- Be careful of Drake London because of the potential for Slay to follow him around the field. He only got 3 targets in Week 1.
- Both Kickers are in play – Total is 45.5 and the weather is calm. Kicking game could be a factor tonight.
- Consider one defense in a 4/2 or 5/1 roster alignment
Favorite prop for the game: Bijan Robinson over 64.5 rushing yards (-110 BET365) / Jalen Hurts over 1.5 passing TDs (+155 DK)
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