Dave Gloeckner 
Week 4 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. And we have another special one tonight as the NFL gives us two Monday night games for our viewing, and betting, pleasure. Therefore, this article will take a right turn from its normal form where we focused solely on showdowns. Instead, we’ll look at the combined two game slate and see if we can build a strategy to bring home a winning lineup in a classic format. I’m still providing showdown thoughts at the end of the article for those looking at the typical one game builds. With that said, let’s dive into two intriguing matchups featuring the Titans and Dolphins in the early game and the Seahawks at the Lions slated for the normal MNF time slot.
Remember there are different strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, so ensure you keep that in mind when building your winning lineups.
For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.
Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/
NOTE: The totals in the two games tonight are 10 points apart. We have the Titans/Dolphins set at 37 points while the Seahawks/Lions are at 47 points. That’s important to note as we’ll want to be a little heavy on the later game tonight based on point scoring potential at 30% higher than the Titans/Dolphins game.
QUARTERBACK
We have four QB’s to choose from tonight in the two-game slate. But the reality is, two are starting QB’s in the NFL, one is a career backup and journeyman, and the other is a 2nd year turnover machine. But because of skewed ownership on the former two, we must look at all the details and matchups to see what makes the most sense for our builds.
JARED GOFF ($6400 DK) – It’s safe to say the Lions have won two of their first three games despite Goff. On the season, he has 4 interceptions to go with just 3 TD’s. And his current QBR is 34.6 which is his lowest since 2016, his rookie season. And he faces a tough matchup tonight as the Seahawks have allowed the 2nd lowest passing yards in the league, at just 132.3 yds/game in the air. Additionally, Seattle’s pass coverage ranks as the top unit in the league posting an 89.9 grade on PFF. That’s mainly due to the dynamic duo of Tariq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon at DB who both rank in the top 20 in the NFL according to PFF.
However, I still think there’s value in Goff for several reasons. First is his recent form against Seattle. The Lions have played the Seahawks in each of the past two seasons, and Goff has 701 yards passing and seven touchdowns in those games. Secondly, the Seahawks have faced a putrid trio of QB’s this season. The triumvirate of Bo Nix, Jacoby Brisset and Skylar Thompson don’t necessarily give us a good indication of how good Seattle’s pass D really is. Afterall, Seattle ranked 28th in DVOA pass defense in 2023. So I expect regression tonight and for that reason rank Goff as the top QB on the slate.
GENO SMITH ($5900 DK) – Geno Smith has the best matchup on the slate as the Lions rank 21st in passing yards allowed, giving up 216.7 per game through the air. He’s also coming off two productive games in a row, where he averaged 308 passing yards per game. Geno can also be a threat in the running game as he’s accounted for one rushing TD on eleven carries this year. Because the salary difference between Smith and Huntley/Levis is minimal, and the matchup is right, the Seahawks signal caller comes in as my QB#2 tonight.
TYLER HUNTLEY ($5500 DK) – Huntley was signed off the Baltimore practice squad earlier this week and is now being thrust into the lineup as the Fins starting QB. And this isn’t new to Huntley as he’s been forced into emergency action several times in the past three years. In fact, he’s seen the field 18 times since 2021 often filling in for an injured Lamar Jackson. So the lights won’t be too big for Huntley and he should be free to perform well with the weapons at his side.
While Tennessee has a good pass D, ranking 3rd in the NFL, they also haven’t seen dynamic passing offenses. Their pass D was one of the worst last year, ranking 24th in DVOA. Huntley is definitely in play for me tonight as he has nothing to lose and can play free an loose. Expect him to take some shots deep to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle while also using his legs to escape trouble when needed.
In reality, this is QB#2b for me tonight as I do have his projections close to Geno.
WILL LEVIS ($5200 DK) – Levis hasn’t been good for the 0-3 Titans. And he’s giving his head coach fits, as Brian Callahan has been forced to eat his words on a few occasions about his young QB. He’ll likely get volume tonight, but his eight turnovers are concerning. I can see a world where he would be worth it on a slate with high priced QB’s, but being he’s only a few hundred dollars less than Smith and Huntley, this is a pass for me.
Tier 1: Jared Goff, Geno Smith
Tier 2: Tyler Huntley
RUNNING BACK
The RB position is filled with tough decisions tonight. We’ll be focusing on matchups for our back usage tonight.
DEVON ACHANE ($7200 DK) – The concern with Achane is the potential for opponents to stack the box because of poor QB play. But with Huntley starting, and being a serviceable QB in the league, there is some optimism that Achane could get back to his normal way. The other good news is the backfield is still clearly his. In their week 3 loss in Seattle, Achane had 74% of the snaps and 73.6% of the touches.
JAHMRY GIBBS ($6900 DK) – The Lions backfield is always hard to predict as snap counts are almost 50/50 on the year between Montgomery and Gibbs. As we all know, the production is clearly different as Gibbs has almost the same amount of yards as Montgomery but on 8 less touches. However, I’m sticking with Gibbs over Montgomery in most of my lineups due to explosive play potential and the need for Detroit to attack Seattle at the edges (including in the passing game).
DAVID MONTGOMERY ($6400 DK) – Montgomery has 51 carries in 3 weeks, which comes out to 17 per game. So he’s definitely in play tonight and you could pair him with Gibbs. In that case, you would need to pivot off Goff and use a different QB since you’re banking on big production in the run game.
KENNETH WALKER III ($6300 DK) – The return of Kenneth Walker III is great news for season long fantasy owners. However, tonight is not the greatest matchup as Detroit has the #1 ranked rush defense against fantasy RB’s. And this is coming off a season in 2023 where Detroit was #1 in rushing defense DVOA. I’d pivot away from the Seattle running game tonight and focus more on their WR’s. Plus we could be on a pitch count here with Charbonnet sharing some of the load.
TONY POLLARD ($6000 DK) – Pollard has the best matchup on the slate as Miami has been giving up big games to RB’s (remember James Cook on TNF in week 2). In order for Levis to stop his turnover, Tennessee needs more out of their running game. However, Callahan is a classic pass first coach so it’s hard to see him relying on the run game if things go awry. Pollard is in play because of matchup but I prefer the Miami and Detroit running games.
Tier 1: DEVON ACHANE, JAHMYR GIBBS
Tier 2: DAVID MONTGOMERY, TONY POLLARD
Wide Receiver
AMON-RA ST BROWN ($8200 DK) – St Brown has recovered from an off game in week 1 to come back with 18 catches and 198 yards in his past two games. Because Detroit moves him all around the field, I’m not concerned with him being blanketed by Woolen. And past history shows he has good numbers against the Seahawks reeling in 14 catches for 213 yards in two career games against Seattle. He’s virtually matchup proof.
TYREEK HIL ($7900 DK) – Since losing Tua, Hill has seen just 6 catches for 64 yards in two games. I do think Huntley will try to force him the ball and expect him to rebound tonight. The Cheetah can’t be held down for three games in a row.
DK METCALF ($6800 DK) – Great matchup and great history here. Metcalf gets a Lions defense that is allowing the 2nd most fantasy points to WR this season. In three career games against Detroit, he’s averaging 6.3 catches, 95.7 yards and one TD. That’s good for over 20 points/game. This is my #1 WR tonight.
JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA ($5500 DK)/TYLER LOCKETT ($5000 DK) – Of the two I prefer JSN tonight as Detroit has struggled against slot WR’s. Just look at what Cooper Kupp did to them in Week 1. He also has more catches, targets and yards than Lockett. But both are in play.
CALVIN RIDLEY ($5900 DK)/DEANDRE HOPKINS ($5300 DK) – The Dolphins have been susceptible to bigger WR’s this season. We saw Brian Thomas Jr have the most catches and get the only receiving TD for the Jags in week 1. And DK Metcalf was the leading WR for Seattle last week. So my lean, of the two, is Hopkins. Both are underwhelming but on a short slate I may find some room for one Titan WR tonight.
Of note, GABE DAVIS ($4200 DK) is in revenge mode tonight against his former team. He’s worth noting as they may try to force the ball into Davis at times.
Tier 1: DK METCLAF, AMON-RA ST BROWN
Tier 2: TYREEK HILL, JAYLEN WADDLE,
TIER 3: JAXON SMITH NJIGBA, DEANDRE HOPKINS, JAMESON WILLIAMS, CALVIN RIDLEY
Tight End
With have one big name TE who has underperformed this season but has a plus matchup. The other TE’s are low salary and low volume.
Tier 1: SAM LAPORTA
Tier 2: CHIG OKONKWO, NOAH FANT, JONU SMITH
DEFENSE
I prefer the defenses in the early game and am hoping the later game is a shootout.
Tier 1: MIAMI DOLPHINS
Tier 2: TENNESSEE TITANS, DETROIT LIONS
FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—MNF Showdown
Now that you have our multi game strategy, we’re also providing a quick thought on the single game breakdowns. I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like Amon-Ra St. Brown or Devon Achane. I’ll also consider Gibbs, Goff, and Metcalf for the night game.
On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. I’ll target similar names to the FanDuel MVP’s above as they have the highest usage rate available.
Best Rules for the slate (TEN at MIA):
- Play Devon Achane. Tennessee may sell out to stop him but he’s will still see 15+ touches.
- In showdowns, I may look at both Huntley and Levis since there could be issues getting points in other areas. Of the two I prefer Huntley.
- I will play one of Hill or Waddle. Not enough pass volume for both to go nuts.
- Tony Pollard is in play on showdowns. I still don’t feel comfortable with his role in a pass happy offense that is led by a turnover prone QB.
- My order of preference at Ten WR is DeAndre Hopkins, Calvin Ridley then Chig Okonkwo.
- l will play many lineups with Miami D. Levis has turned the ball over 8 times in three games and several resulted in defensive TD’s..
- Both kickers are in play.
Best Rules for the slate (SEA at DET):
- Play Amon-Ra St. Brown in most (if not all) lineups. I’ll primarily have him at MVP and CPT since we can find salary relief in other places. As I said earlier, he’s matchup proof.
- I prefer Jared Goff to Geno Smith but will see if I can fit both in my lineups as I fad Seattle running game.
- DK Metcalf will be in most, if not all, my lineups.
- Sam LaPorta has a plus matchup. If using him and St Brown, consider fading Lions running attack.
- Both kickers are in play but I would only play one in my lineups.
- Seattle should look to pass often, JSN and Lockett should be considered.
Favorite prop for the games: To be posted by 5pm EST.
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