Dave Gloeckner 
Week 15 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. And the NFL has brought us some early holiday gifts with two Monday night games for our viewing, and betting, pleasure. Therefore, this article will take a right turn from its normal form where we focused solely on showdowns. Instead, we’ll look at the combined two game slate and see if we can build a strategy to bring home a winning lineup in a classic format. I’m still providing showdown thoughts at the end of the article for those looking at the typical one game builds. With that said, let’s dive into two intriguing matchups featuring the BEARS at the VIKINGS in the early game and the FALCONS at the RAIDERS slated for the normal MNF time slot.
Remember there are different strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, so ensure you keep that in mind when building your winning lineups.
For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.
Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/
NOTE: The games start just 30 minutes apart with the early game kicking off at 8pm and the latter at 830pm. In reality, we’re just locking lineups 15 minutes prior to when we normally do on MNF.
The totals in the two games tonight are almost identical. We have the Bears/Vikings set at 43.5 points while the Falcons/Raiders are at 44.5 points. The point spreads are also both very close, at 7 and 6 points respectively. That’s important to note as there isn’t one game environment that Vegas predicts will be better than the other. So that’s where you sit back and read what we have to say to see where you can find an advantage.
QUARTERBACK
We have four QB’s to choose from tonight in the two-game slate. But you can only choose one. Here’s how we rank the signal callers tonight based on projected points and value (i.e. points to salary):
KIRK COUSINS ($5500 DK) – There is a real possibility that Kirk Cousins is playing for his job tonight in Las Vegas. A loss to the lowly Raiders would be Atlanta’s fourth in a row. And to do that, I believe the Falcons need to push the ball through the air against a Raiders team that has issues on the backend. Las Vegas is 24th in pass defense DVOA and allows the 9th most fantasy points to QB’s. Add to that this should be a high paced game as the Raiders and Falcons are both in the top 10 in pace.
Then there’s the fun factor of prime-time football. There was a time when Kirk Cousins was considered a player that would struggle in prime time. He is 14-21 overall in prime-time games, but is 6-4 in his last 10. That includes three games this year where he’s 2-1. In those games, he’s thrown for 980 yards with 7 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions.
SAM DARNOLD ($6600 DK) – Speaking of the blitz, Sam Darnold is the 2nd best QB in the league when facing a blitz. He has 11 TD’s to 0 INT’s. Which makes sense as his receivers are able to win one-on-one matchups when teams blitz. But he holds onto the ball at a high rate which makes him the 2nd highest sacked QB coming into Week 15.
But Darnold has been great at finding big plays. Minnesota leads the league in explosive passing plays (over 20+ yards). And the Bears are bad at stopping big plays, ranking 27th in explosive pass plays allowed.
So the points and yards are there to be had with Darnold. The only reason I rank Cousins higher is due to the $1100 discount which is big on a two game slate.
CALEB WILLIAMS ($5700 DK) – The Bears are a mess. Several late game disaster’s led to them firing HC Matt Eberflus. But the alternative looks to be even worse as Chicago laid down last week in interim HC Thomas Brown’s debut. Losing 38-13 to the San Francisco 49ers, who are a mess of their own.
However, even in defeat, which they’ve had a lot, Caleb Williams has been able to put up some decent fantasy numbers. He has five games of 23+ points on the season. He does have four duds, where he put up less than 10 points. But those were in tough conditions or versus quality pass defenses. The latter is what Minnesota is not. The Vikings allow the 3rd most passing yards in the league at 250.6. According to PFF, Minnesota is ranked 29th in pass rush and 17th in pass coverage. While they entered Week 15 with 40 sacks, good for 4th in the NFL, that is due to their propensity to blitz. The Vikings lead the NFL at a 38.7% blitz rate.
That’s where this gets interesting. We all know Caleb Williams has been sacked a lot. He leads the league with 56 sacks. But in the face of a blitz, he’s thrown 6 TD’s to just 1 INT. He’s ranked 13th of all qualified QB’s against the blitz, higher than Baker Mayfield, Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts (to name a few). So seeing the blitz isn’t a bad thing per say for Caleb. It makes him a quicker decision maker. And his stats against Minnesota backed that as he threw for 340 yards and 2 TD’s in Week 12 against the Vikings.
DESMOND RIDDER ($4800 DK) – All signs point to Ridder starting tonight for LVR as Aidan O’Connell is doubtful with a leg injury. I’m not a Ridder fan, but it is worth noting that he started the season as Atlanta’s starting QB in 2023. His poor perfromance is why they spent money in free agency on Cousins and drafted Michael Penix in the first round. But it can also be used as motivation for Ridder and I’ll think he’ll have some extra juice for tonight’s game.
Also worth noting is the Falcons D is awful. They allow the 6th most points to QB’s and 8th most passing yards per game. If the other QB’s were in the $7K range then I’d see value in Ridder. But, with Cousins only $700 more, I find the value of Ridder as low and will likely be fading him tonight. Even with a plus matchup fueled by spurned motivation.
Tier 1: Kirk Cousins, Sam Darnold
Tier 2: Caleb Williams, Desmond Ridder
RUNNING BACK
The RB position is filled with tough decisions tonight because of matchups. The top 2 are clearly the best option but there could be value in other spots.
AARON JONES ($6500 DK) – Jones has the best matchup as the Bears allow the 4th most fantasy point to RB’s. He exploited this matchup back in Week 12 when he ran for 106 yards, his apex on this season. The Bears allow the 5th most rushing yards per game at 134.8.
BIJAN ROBINSON ($7600 DK) – Bijan is the safest option of all the RB’s tonight. Jones has a few games of single digit scoring. Bijan’s lowest output is 10.3 points and that was in a blowout loss against Denver. He also gets a plus matchup as the Raiders are allowing the 11th most fantasy points to RB’s. His matchup isn’t as good as Jones and his salary is $1100 more which is why I put him 2nd. But you can fit him in with Jones or run him separate with multiple big name pass catchers.
SINCERE MCCORMICK ($5100 DK) – The Raiders announced McCormick will start tonight. This is good news as he’s flashed potential the last two weeks, with 134 yards rushing on 27 carries. Atlanta has good numbers against RB’s, but that is somewhat smoke and mirrors. The Falcons have allowed just 4 rushing TD’s this season to RB’s which is 2nd lowest in the NFL. But they are allowing 120.8 yards rushing which is 16th most in the NFL. And they’re susceptible to RB’s that can catch, as they’ve allowed 5.5 receptions to RB’s this season which is 3rd highest in the NFL. See Ameer Abdullah.
NOTE: Alex Mattison is listed as healthy and will suit up tonight. This backfield is crowded and the Raiders pass at such a high rate that I have concerns on using any of their RB’s.
AMEER ABDULLAH ($4600 DK) – Last week looked to be an aberration. Abdullah saw just 2 touches coming off the previous two weeks when he averaged 12.5 touches per game. Abdullah still saw a decent amount of the snaps, registering 39%. The problem was the game script and Tampa’s defense as they held him to -2 total yards. Being Atlanta’s defense is much more favorable, and they allow the 3rd most receptions to RB’s, I like Abdullah to get positive fantasy points tonight.
BEARS RB’s – D’Andre Swift is questionable tonight. If he ends up playing, I will have some interest based on his salary. But if he doesn’t play then we have a potential steal in Travis Homer at $4000. Getting a starting RB for that price, even though the matchup is tough, would be a great edge to use in order to pay up for some other big names.
Tier 1: AARON JONES, BIJAN ROBINSON
Tier 2: SINCERE MCCORMICK, TRAVIS HOMER (if Swift is out)
Tier 3: D’ANDRE SWIFT, AMEER ABDULLAH, TYLER ALLGEIER, CAM AKERS
Wide Receiver
DRAKE LONDON ($6400 DK) – London is my favorite receiver on the slate tonight. He’s $1800 cheaper than Jefferson and has a better matchup against LVR. As Cousins is my #1 QB, I’ll be looking to pair him up with London in most lineups that I have Kirk. I’ll also be comfortable running London solo. Our projections have London at just 2 points behind Jefferson.
JUSTIN JEFFERSON ($8200 DK) – The Bears have been more vulnerable against WR #2’s and TE’s. And this showed up heavily in their first matchup with Minnestoa as they held Jefferson to 2 catches and 27 yards. Chicago tends to play Cover 3, which allows them to double certain WR’s with safety help. The Bears also held Jefferson in check in their final game in 2023, holding him to 4 catches for 38 yards. But the good news is, Jefferson has gone over 100 yards in every home matchup against Chicago. He’s averaged 8 catches and 123 yards in three career home games against the Bears.
JAKOBI MYERS ($5700 DK) – Myers has the best matchup tonight as the Falcons allow the 2nd most fantasy points to WR’s. He is a reception machine, hauling in 23 in the past three weeks. He’s seen 36 targets in that stretch. If his QB’s had some accuracy then his numbers could even be better. And that’s his only drawback tonight, as Ridder is not known for his accuracy. But this is still a great price and plus matchup for a WR that sees the type of volume that Myers does.
DJ MOORE ($5800 DK) – Speaking of great matchups, the only team that allows more fantasy points to WR’s than the Falcons is the Vikings. DJ Moore went for 7 catches and 106 yards in Week 12 against Minnesota. He’ll be the best blitz beater as he can line-up in the slot or see quick routes from the outside.
DARNELL MOONEY ($5500 DK) – Mooney reeled in 6 catches for 142 yards last week in Minnesota. He’ll have opportunities tonight too against a Raiders team that doesn’t have a CB ranked inside the top 66 players at that position according to PFF.
KEENAN ALLEN ($5400 DK) – Allen has been more active in the passing game of late, averaging 18 fantasy points per game in the last 3 weeks. He also had a big game against Minnesota in Week 12 bringing in 9 catches for 96 yards. Allen’s performance will hinge on TD equity as he doesn’t get a lot of downfield opportunities.
Of note, JORDAN ADDISON had a huge game last week and against Chicago is Week 12. He’s in my player pool too but I will likely only play him in lineups that I don’t have Jefferson.
Tier 1: DRAKE LONDON, JUSTIN JEFFERSON, JAKOBI MYERS
Tier 2: DJ MOORE, KEENAN ALLEN, DARNELL MOONEY, JORDAN ADDISON
TIER 3: RAY-RAY MCCLOUD, ROME ODUNZE, TRE TUCKER
Tight End
With have one big name TE who has underperformed this season but has a plus matchup. The other TE’s are low salary and low volume.
Tier 1: BROCK BOWERS
Tier 2: TJ HOCKENSON
Tier 3: KYLE PITTS, COLE KMET
DEFENSE
There is one premium defense based on sack equity. But all are in play due to sack potential.
Tier 1: MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Tier 2: ATLANTA FALCONS
Tier 3: CHICAGO BEARS, LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—MNF Showdown
Now that you have our multi game strategy, we’re also providing a quick thought on the single game breakdowns (SHOWDOWNS).
Best Rules for the Showdown slate (CHI at MIN):
- Play the passing game tonight. Minnesota at home has been performing at a high level all season. They average 28.7 points per game in their home dome.
- Put a premium WR in your CPT. Looking at Jefferson, Addison, Hockenson or Moore.
- I will use Travis Homer as salary relief. Especially if Swift is out.
- Kickers are in play but I prefer Reichard (Minnesota). Teams like the Bears that have little to play for will pass on FG opps more often than normal.
- Aaron Jones should have a big game tonight as well. I’ll play him with pass catchers but not necessarily with Darnold.
- Bears WR rankings for me; Moore, Allen, Kmet, Odunze.
- Caleb Williams could have a good fantasy game. I don’t mind playing him in a runback against Minnesota’s passing game.
Best Rules for the slate (ATL at LVR):
- My favorite CPT’s are Drake London, Bijan Robinson and Jakobi Myers.
- I’m bullish on Desmond Ridder for the two game slate. But I like him in a showdown. He’s even a CPT candidate due to the potential for him to score with his legs.
- Brock Bowers can’t be stopped but his salary is high. Try to fit him in with Myers or Ridder when making lineups. The Raiders pass at the 3rd highest rate in the league.
- Bijan will be most popular player and rightfully so. With the Falcons on a long losing streak, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a focused running attack, especially in the redzone.
- At least one secondary receiver will have a big game. My preference is Mooney, Tucker, then McCloud.
- Even though Abdullah didn’t see many touches last week, at $3400 DK tonight he could be a good salary saver. Teh Falcons have let up 3rd most receptions to RB’s this season. And that’s Abdullah’s bread and butter. The risk is that Alex Mattison is back (same goes for risk with McCormick).
- McCormick gets the start at RB but is priced up in the Showdown. I prefer the passing game over him.
Favorite prop for the games: To be posted by 5pm EST.
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