Dave Gloeckner 
Week 7 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. And we have another special one tonight as the NFL gives us two Monday night games for our viewing, and betting, pleasure. Therefore, this article will take a right turn from its normal form where we focused solely on showdowns. Instead, we’ll look at the combined two game slate and see if we can build a strategy to bring home a winning lineup in a classic format. I’m still providing showdown thoughts at the end of the article for those looking at the typical one game builds. With that said, let’s dive into two intriguing matchups featuring the Ravens at Dolphins in the early game and the Chargers at the Cardinals slated for the later time slot. Note, the Chargers/Cardinals game is an exclusive ESPN+ streaming game.
Remember there are different strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, so ensure you keep that in mind when building your winning lineups.
For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.
Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/
NOTE: The totals in the two games tonight are 6 points apart. We have the best game stack environment is Baltimore/Tampa Bay as that total is set at 50 points. The Chargers/Cardinals game has a total of 44 so it’s still a good place to go for smaller stacks.
QUARTERBACK
We have four QB’s to choose from tonight in the two-game slate. But the reality is, two are starting QB’s in the NFL, one is a career backup and journeyman, and the other is a 2nd year turnover machine. But because of skewed ownership on the former two, we must look at all the details and matchups to see what makes the most sense for our builds.
LAMAR JACKSON ($8000 DK) – The reigning NFL MVP is always in play on any card. But when you have one as short as this, with just 2 games, he’s the top arm to target. Especially when you factor in his matchup against the Bucs who have allowed the 4th most passing yards/game in the NFL at 252.3. And it doesn’t stop there, as the Bucs are allowing 113.3 yard/game on the ground (19th in NFL). But the key here is their play against other mobile QB’s, as they’ve allowed 187 yards rushing to signal callers. This includes a 16 carry, 88 yard performance by Jayden Daniels. So there is room for LJack to run against the Bucs too thus raising his fantasy potential.
BAKER MAYFIELD ($6800 DK) – There are only 3 teams allowing more yards passing than the Bucs. And the Ravens are one of those. Baltimore allows the most passing yards per game at 275.5. And with the weapons at Baker’s disposal, he should be able to carve up a weak Ravens secondary. And as far as this season goes, Baker is top 10 in passing yards as he averages 248.2 per game. He’s also tied for the lead league with 15 passing TD’s. Therefore, Baker is a great play for tonight in what could be a shootout in Tampa.
KYLER MURRAY ($6500 DK) – Murray looks to have the toughest matchup of the four QB’s tonight as the Chargers have a top 5 defense in almost all metrics. This includes allowing a league low in 13.2 points/game. But one thing to consider is that Murray has most of his weapons fully healthy, including Marvin Harrison Jr and Trey McBride. And the Chargers have played just one top 15 QB in this league, Patrick Mahomes, which means they’ve feasted on lesser competition. So I do encourage some lineups with Murray as we’re seeing him projected as the lowest owned QB, at just 11%. It’s always a good idea to zag in smaller slates.
JUSTIN HERBERT ($5500 DK) – The issue with Herbert isn’t talent. We all know he has a big arm and can make plays with his legs. But it’s the weapons and style of play of the Chargers, which limits Herbert’s fantasy ceiling. He’s averaging just 11.4 fantasy points per game and hasn’t surpassed 13.7 points in any game. Yet his numbers are looking good as he has a 6-to-1 touchdown to INT ratio. The other factor to consider is that LA plays at the slowest pace in the league, averaging a full 30 seconds per snap. And they run at the 3rd highest rate in the league, thus keeping the clock moving on a consistent basis. The matchup and salary are tempting, but I’m going to focus on the other three QB’s for my two-game slates.
Tier 1: LAMAR JACKSON, BAKER MAYFIELD
Tier 2: KYLER MURRAY
RUNNING BACK
The RB position is filled with tough decisions tonight. We’ll be focusing on matchups for our back usage tonight.
DERRICK HENRY ($8000 DK) – The Ravens run the ball at the highest rate in the league and average an eye-opening 205.3 yards per game on the ground. There’s no question Henry is the #1 back on this small slate. You could even pair him with Lamar Jackson and soak up all the 200 yards this team is projected to gain on the ground.
JAMES CONNER ($6600 DK) – Conner is either hit or miss this season. When he’s faced rushing defenses in top 15 in rushing yards allowed, he’s averaged just 8.2 fantasy points per game. In the other three games, he’s averaging 21 fantasy points per game. Well, the Chargers are 6th in rush defense, so I’m fading Conner tonight in most lineups as I think there are better spots at better prices,
J.K. DOBBINS ($6400 DK) – Great back with a great price and matchup tonight. The Chargers RB is averaging 5.4 yards/carry and 17 fantasy points per game. Arizona allows the 9th most points to RB’s.
RACHAAD WHITE ($5700 DK) – I won’t play White tonight. He’s status is questionable and he may not play. But even if he does, he’s up against a team allowing just 59 yards/game. White is averaging just 3.6 yards/carry this season and will not find room on the ground against a tough Ravens front.
BUCKY IRVING ($5900 DK) – My amount of exposure to Irving will vary based on White’s status. While I don’t like White against the Ravens, I do think Irving could find some room as he’s averaging 5.7 yards/carry. He’s also a threat as a catcher, which is an area that the Ravens are susceptible, allowing 4.3 receptions per game to RB’s (16th most in league).
SEAN TUCKER ($5900 DK) – Tucker is only in play if White doesn’t suit up. He had a great week as a backup to Irving. But he still saw just 38% of the snaps and some of that was due to the game being out of hand in the 4th quarter. As of note, he had 0 snaps the last time White and Irving were both healthy (week 5).
KIMANI VIDAL ($4400 DK) – The Chargers RB has been promoted due to Gus Edwards injury. And he provided a nice fantasy spark with 13.1 points in last week’s game at Denver. He saw only 24% of the snaps, but that should go up tonight as he’s had more time practicing with the first team. He’s a good salary saver for GPP’s.
EMARI DEMARCADO ($4000 DK) – Demarcado out-snapped James Conner almost 2 to 1 last week. That was most likely because of score, but when he was in, the Cards tried to get him the ball. Demarcado had the second most targets on the team at 7. He could be a nice change-up against an aggressive Chargers D.
Tier 1: DERRICK HENRY, JK DOBBINS
Tier 2: BUCKY IRVING, JAMES CONNER
Wide Receiver
CHRIS GODWIN ($7400 DK) – Godwin has been a fantasy superstar this year with 21.7 points/game. Coming into Week 7, he led the league in receptions with 43. He can take that lead again with just 5 catches tonight, which shouldn’t be an issue versus the worst pass defense in the league. I like Godwin over Evans, due to him consistently getting targets (9 per game) but I will see some lineups with both.
MIKE EVANS ($730000 DK) – Evans is tied with his counterpart, Chris Godwin, for the team lead in receiving TD’s with 5. But he has 18 less receptions on just 11 less targets. This just shows the difficulty in the routes and balls that are thrown Evans way. But Baltimore has allowed the second most points to fantasy WR’s so he’s a top 2 target on tonight’s slate.
MARVIN HARRISON JR ($7000 DK) – Maybe Kyler Murray really doesn’t like Harrison Jr. He’s had three weeks of 2 catches or less (with last week’s game shortened by injury). But if they are going to contend, and win games against tough teams, he’ll need to send the ball Harrison’s way tonight. I still think the salary is a bit high for the matchup and lack of volume. He can bust one at any time but I prefer the other passing options for the Cards.
ZAY FLOWERS ($6700 DK) – Flowers has two straight games of at least 25 fantasy points. He’s seeing on average 7 targets per game. And he gets to against a defense that is allowing the 4th most points to WR’s.
LADD MCCONKEY ($4900) / QUENTIN JOHNSON ($4600 DK) / JOSH PALMER ($4400 DK) – Of the Chargers trio, I like Josh Palmer the most tonight. He saw just three targets last week but was matched up against Patrick Surtain for most of the game. I expect him to be WR #1 for LAC as he has the best repoire with QB Justin Herbert. It looks like Johnson will miss tonight. If he does, that opens up McConkey to see the field in most 2 WR sets. So his value goes up without Johnson.
SIMI FEHOKO ($3000 DK) – A pure shot in the dark but Fehoko did see more targets than Palmer and Johnson last week and turned that into 6.4 DK points.
Of note, MICHAEL WILSON ($4700 DK) is my favorite Cardinals WR. He’s been very consistent in the past four weeks, averaging almost 11 fantasy points per game in those contests. But keep an eye on ZAY JONES ($4500 DK) as he’s scheduled to make his Cardinals debut tonight.
Tier 1: CHRIS GODWIN, MIKE EVANS, ZAY FLOWERS
Tier 2: MICHAEL WILSON, JOSH PALMER,
TIER 3: MAVIN HARRISON JR, RASHOD BATEMAN, LADD MCCONKEY, ZAY JONES, STERLINE SHEPARD
Tight End
With have some big name TE’s on the slate. Baltimore has allowed the 24th most points to TE’s so that raises the value of Cade Otton. But you won’t want to pair him with all the Bucs receivers. So get creative there. I think Mark Andrews recent resurgence puts him ahead of Likely in my pecking order. Anytime Murray plays, McBride is in a smash spot.
Tier 1: TREY MCBRIDE, CADE OTTON
Tier 2: MARK ANDREWS, ISAIAH LIKELY, WILL DISSLY
DEFENSE
I prefer the defenses in the later game and am hoping the earlier game is a shootout.
Tier 1: LA CHARGERS, ARIZONA CARDINALS
Tier 2: BALTIMORE RAVENS
FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—MNF Showdown
Now that you have our multi game strategy, we’re also providing a quick thought on the single game breakdowns.
On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. I’ll target similar names to the FanDuel MVP’s above as they have the highest usage rate available.
Best Rules for the slate (BALT at TAMPA):
- Play at least two WR’s tonight in your lineups, preferably three. Both pass defenses are vulnerable.
- It’s unlikely you’ll have room for both QB’s and solid pass catchers. In showdown, the salaries are much closer so I favor Lamar. But try to fit at least one QB in your build.
- We are looking for a shootout, so I’m fading both defenses. Ravens are the only one I’d consider since they’ve racked up 19 sacks this year.
- Derrick Henry is a beast, but I’ll be on the lower side of ownership so I can fit in the passing weapons. He’s still in play though, obviously. I’ll just be less than the predicted rate of 70%.
- Kickers baby! Both are in play due to the high pace of both teams.
- My favorite TE is Cade Otton with Mark Andrews as my #2. Both are cheaper than Likely.
- Keep an eye on Sterline Shepard. He’s clearly the 3rd WR for TB and is at a good price.
- If White is out, I will play more of Irving. I think he’s crucial in spacing the field for Tampa.
Best Rules for the slate (LAC at ARZ):
- My favorite CPT for this game is Trey McBride. But I’ll also consider J.K. Dobbins, Kyler Murray and Josh Palmer.
- Don’t fret the matchup, Kyler Murray needs to have a good game coming off a poor one at Green Bay. I believe he can do so as LA hasn’t faced many premiere QB’s this year.
- Kristian Fulton is one of the top DB’s in the league. He could give Harrison some fits but I still like the former Buckeye in Flex positions. I don’t think he gets for volume for CPT but can break one at any time.
- Chargers WR’s are priced well. I won’t want to play more than one in any of my lineups, unless it’s Fehoko as my 2nd as he is just $1800 and needs just 6+ points to pay off his value.
- Both kickers are in play but I would only play one in my lineups.
- The defenses are in play as well, with the Cardinals my preference as they’ve forced 8 turnovers this year.
- One name to keep in mind is Emari Demarcado. Any injury or change in game environment could force the Cards to use Demarcado, and if they do so he’s a threat in the passing game.
Favorite prop for the games: To be posted by 5pm EST.
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