Andrew Erickson 
Welcome to another Monday night football DFS preview article. I will be covering value and punt plays, favorite stacks, and my contrarian play of the game. So who is ready for some Monday night action between the Packers and Vikings? All prices discussed are via DraftKings in their Monday Night Football DFS Showdown Contest. This matchup features two very close-skilled teams. Via Packers.com, both teams rank top five in turnover margin, red-zone offense, red-zone defense, and points on first possessions.
Monday Night Football DFS – Value and Punt Plays
Jake Kumerow ($1,200) is the perfect buy-low Packers player on this slate. His 19.3 yards per catch is more than any other Packers receiver with multiple receptions. When given the rare opportunity, Kumerow has made big plays. Matt LaFleur even came out and said, “We have to make sure we get him on the field.” Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($800) has done virtually nothing over the past six weeks, but at his price, he is worth the punt play. Whenever he is targeted it’s deep downfield, so he just needs one pass to vastly return on his price tag. The Vikings’ weakness is in their secondary where they have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Minnesota has been better as of late versus wide receivers though; ranking 17th over the past four weeks. Coach Mike Zimmer has made adjustments with Xavier Rhodes struggling all year. He has been rotating young cornerbacks Mackensie Alexander, Mike Hughes, and Holton Hill more this year, with starter Trae Waynes a constant. In last week’s 39-10 win over the Los Angeles Chargers, Rhodes only played 14 defensive snaps. That also makes Geronimo Allison ($2,600) another value option on Green Bay.
C.J. Ham ($1,000) is probably the best value on the Vikings side of the ball and has seen work in the pass-game over the past three weeks. Six targets over the past three weeks. He could see an expanded role with no Dalvin Cook or Alexander Mattison.
Monday Night Football DFS – Favorite Stacks
With the Vikings 5.5 favorites at home, I like them to build a lead, so I like going aggressive with Minnesota players. The Vikings have a top-five scoring offense at home this season. Starting with Kirk Cousins ($10,200) and then building him with his two top receivers with Stefon Diggs ($9,600) and Adam Thielen ($8,600). Diggs and Thielen both have amazing track records versus the Green Bay Packers. Diggs has a touchdown versus the Packers in six-straight games. Thielen has over 75 yards in four of his last five games versus Green Bay. Cousins has an 80% completion percentage at home and Diggs leads the league in yards per target (12.5) and second in yards per route run (2.23).
I also like factoring in Dan Bailey ($4,000). If the Vikings are stifled in the red zone without Dalvin Cook, Bailey could flourish. The Packers on the road this season have allowed the most field goal attempts per game to their opponents. Mike Boone ($9,000) should also be considered in Vikings’ stacks, but I slightly prefer the receivers in the captain spot because I am not sure how Boone will be used in the passing game. The Vikings DST ($4,600) will be tougher to trust with interceptions because Rodgers rarely throws picks, but the Packers do allow sacks especially on the road. They have allowed the fifth-most sacks on the road this season.
I would also try to factor Allen Lazard ($5,400) as a core piece. The Vikings have a top-ten run defense at home, and will surely put a lot of coverage on Davante Adams ($11,400). Lazard’s size/speed combo gives him the best chance of being that no.3 option on the Green Bay offense. He is second on the team in routes run over the past two weeks. In Minnesota stacks, you can also replace Vikings’ receivers with Adams who also has a great track record versus the Vikings. He has either had 100 yards or a touchdown in his five last games versus Minnesota.
Monday Night Football DFS – Contrarian Plays
Everybody and their mother is going to play Mike Boone ($9,000). It makes sense with the noise surrounding him and the projection that he is the bell-cow back Monday night. However, he did see zero involvement in the passing game. The Packers Defense that allows 4.76 yards per attempt and is ranked 25th in rush DVOA. They also rank 25th in fantasy points per game allowed to the running back position. Consider that Ameer Abdullah ($2,200) had two targets last week and he profiles as more of a pass-catcher. If the Vikings fall behind Boone may not get to expose the plus-matchup versus the Packers defense. There’s a case to be made to not automatically lock him into the captain’s spot and just by flexing him could be enough to be different.
Aaron Jones ($10,800) in the captain’s spot will probably be low-owned because of the perception that the Vikings have a good defense. That is not entirely true. Over the past four weeks, Minnesota has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to the running back position. Jones has rushed for over 72 yards in his last two games versus the Vikings and scored in both games. Playing Jones over Adams could be a great leverage play. Aaron Rodgers ($10,400) might be the favorite quarterback to play, but he has not always played great statistically at Minnesota. He has not thrown for over 250 yards or more than two touchdowns at Minnesota since 2012. Packers DST ($4,400) is another interesting option if Kirk Cousins goes back to old primetime Cousins.
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