MLBA Daily Notes 5.31.19 TOR at COL

OFFENSE

TOR Away vs RHP, 2019 (Last 13 Days)

• 117 PA
• .189/.256/.311 Triple Slash
• .568 OPS
• .123 ISO
• .249 wOBA
• 51 wRC+
• 32.5% Hard Hit Rate
• Bottom 5 in K% Last Seven (27.0%)

COL Home, 2019 (Last 7 Days)

• 284 PA
• .324.399.563 Triple Slash
• .961 OPS
• .239 ISO
• .401 wOBA
• 126 wRC+
• 10.9% BB Rate
• 42.0% Hard Hit Rate

STARTING PITCHING

Edwin Jackson, 2019 (2 Games Started)

• 9 IP
• 12.00 ERA / 8.59 FIP / 5.36 xFIP
• 1.78 WHIP
• .359/.405/.744 Triple Slash Allowed
• 1.149 OPSA
• .471 wOBAA
• 42.4% Hard Hit Rate
• 17.6% Barrel Rate

German Marquez Home, 2019 (Last 4 Games Started)

• 30.0 IP
• 32 K : 7 BB
• 22.7 K%
• 5% BB Rate
• 4.80 ERA / 3.11 FIP / 3.41 xFIP
• 1.63 WHIP, BUT
• .389 BABIP
• 36.6% Hard Hit Rate

I know German’s surface stats are a little off-putting, but my thinking here is the strong peripherals, high BABIP & high K% are a sign of better results to come.

BULLPENS LAST 7 DAYS

THE PLAY: COL ML (Weigh the Play)

COL has a clear three phase edge tonight, and it’s reflected in the -300 odds. I think the best way to play these heavy favorites (unless you don’t mind laying the chalk) is to weigh the play; Take a weighted play and get some money behind the F5RL, F5ML, RL & ML. It can serve as a progressive payout, and protect you from these bad bullpen beats. I know this style of play lends itself to splits & partial wins at times, but it also spares disaster. Just last week having weighed the play in the Mets game, we turned a loss into a push (They had 1 run lead after 5, then blew it late). Also depending on your capabilities, you can reissue any funds that got pushed back on the same team via live betting for similar or better odds.

Let’s get it.