Andrew Arbeit MLB Season-Long Fantasy Draft Guide
Howdy! Welcome to my 2021 Win Daily Sports’ MLB Season-Long Fantasy Draft Guide. If you read my last article, you have joined your MLB season-long fantasy leagues (mine are on CBS and Yahoo), scheduled your drafts, and are now preparing to dominate your leagues. This article will go over some strategies for keepers and drafts (auction and snake), as well as some player rankings.
KEEPERS
I enjoy keeper leagues. Two of my three leagues are keeper leagues. I like that it makes the fantasy league a year-round activity and allows for more skill to be involved. I especially like that fantasy league members with no shot at winning in a particular season are still incentivized to be involved because they can improve their chances for the following season and beyond by improving their keepers via trades and free agency. My recent favorite example of this occurred a few years ago in 2017 in my AL-Only keeper auction league. I was having a down year and was able to trade some non-keepers for a young Gary Sanchez and a still-in-the-minor-leagues, Gleybar Torres. Yes, I am a Mets fan, but I also like winning in fantasy leagues and this trade set me up for success for the next couple of seasons. In fact, Gleybar Torres is still on my team and at a lower than market rate price.
Make sure you know the rules in your league governing keepers. Most leagues will institute some kind of tax or inflation which will affect the keeper value of the player. In snake drafts, the tax usually is having the keeper player have to kept in a higher round than they were originally drafted, i.e., a player drafted in the 6th round would now be kept in the 4th round. In auction leagues, there may be an additional cost added to the player being kept, i.e., a player won at auction for $10 would be kept for $15. Additionally, there may be rules in both types of leagues for how many years a player can be kept. All these variables will affect how valuable your keeper is.
Speaking of value, that is the key to determining whether or not you should keep a player. You would not decide to make Mike Trout one of your keepers in a snake draft with the 1st overall pick in the 1st round of the draft. This is because there is no value in doing that when you could just keep other players and redraft Mike Trout. The same goes for an auction league where you would have to keep Trout for $75 but you believe it is likely he would only go between $50 – $60 in the draft. You have to make sure you have player rankings and auction prices figured out for your specific leagues when making your keeper determinations. You also need to determine your league’s inflation rate.
DRAFTS
Personally, I prefer auction drafts. I enjoy both, but there is more skill involved in auction drafts, so I typically perform better. Also, in snake drafts, I inherently do not like that my random and arbitrary draft slot decides who is on my team. I have a snake draft this week where I have the 13th pick out of 14 teams so I already know a few players I have no shot at drafting. Conversely, if any of my personally ranked top-12 players fall to me at #13, I am now getting a great value in my draft spot.
Whether you are in an auction or snake draft, if you sing while playing fantasy baseball you may not get a good pitch(er)! #DadJoke. While that joke is obviously terrible, my advice is not. Sing all you want because you do not need to waste valuable resources on good pitch(ers). Hitters, especially the top ones, are generally more consistent and less injury prone from year to year and thus more projectable. As such, they are a better use of prime auction dollars and high-round draft picks.
Your season-long fantasy league cannot be won the moment the draft is completed. Most successful teams will usually look vastly different at the end of the year. Even if you come out of the draft with a weak pitching staff, you will always be able to improve it on the waiver wire, free agency, or trades. An active manager has a better chance at being successful. This principle, added to the fact that it is usually much easier to find pitchers throughout the year, enforces my belief that hitters are more important in the draft.
In a snake draft, I will usually seek to draft 6-7 hitters in the first 10 rounds. In an auction draft, I am looking to spend 70-80% of my budget on hitters. Obviously, things can change if value appears (you know the saying, if they zig you want to zag), but this is generally my approach. It is also helpful to do some mock drafts.
RANKINGS
Now the moment some of my friends and league mates have been waiting for: Here are my personal 2021 MLB season-long fantasy draft guide league rankings by position. These rankings can change depending on league rules and team needs, i.e., if I need more speed or power or batting average depending on the other players on my team. Make sure you check your individual league and website for player’s position eligibility. Even more importantly, make sure you are up to date on a player’s injury status.
Catcher
1) J.T. Realmuto (PHI)
2) Yasmani Grandal (CWS)
3) Wilson Contrearas (CHC)
4) Salvador Perez (KC)
5) Will Smith (LAD)
6) Travis d’Arnaud (ATL)
7) Gary Sanchez (NYY)
8) Christian Vazquez (BOS)
9) James McCann (NYM)
10) Mitch Garver (MIN)
Just outside my top 10 but I would not mind drafting: Sean Murphy (OAK)
First Base
1) Freddie Freeman (ATL)
2) Pete Alonso (NYM)
3) Jose Abreu (CWS)
4) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR)
5) Matt Olsen (OAK)
6) Anthony Rizzo (CHC)
7) Paul Goldschmidt (ARI)
8) Max Muncy (LAD)
9) Eric Hosmer (SD)
10) Rhys Hoskins (PHI)
Just outside my top 10 but I would not mind drafting: Josh Bell (WSH) and Miguel Sano (MIN)
Top 10 but injured and can be drafted lower than normal: Luke Voit (NYY)
Young players with upside I like: Jared Walsh (LAA) and Bobby Dalbec (BOS)
Second Base
1) DJ LeMahieu (NYY)
2) Ozzie Albies (ATL)
3) Keston Hiura (MIL)
4) Ketel Marte (ARI)
5) Jose Altuve (HOU)
6) Cavan Biggio (TOR)
7) Brandon Lowe (TB)
8) Mike Moustakas (CIN)
9) Nick Madrigal (CWS)
10) Jean Segura (PHI)
Just outside my top 10 but I would not mind drafting: Ryan McMahon (COL) and Cesar Hernandez (CLE)
Young players with upside I like: Gavin Lux (LAD)
Shortstop
1) Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD)
2) Trea Turner (WSH)
3) Trevor Story (COL)
4) Francisco Lindor (NYM)
5) Corey Seager (LAD)
6) Xander Bogaerts (BOS)
7) Bo Bichette (TOR)
8) Adalberto Mondesi (KC)
9) Gleybar Torres (NYY)
10) Tim Anderson (CWS)
Just outside my top 10 but I would not mind drafting: Javier Baez (CHC), Carlos Correa (HOU), Marcus Semien (TOR), and Dansby Swanson (ATL)
Young players with upside I like: Willi Castro (DET)
Third Base
1) Jose Ramirez (CLE)
2) Rafael Devers (BOS)
3) Manny Machado (SD)
4) Alex Bregman (HOU)
5) Anthony Rendon (LAA)
6) Eugenio Suarez (CIN)
7) Nolan Arenado (STL)
8) Matt Chapman (OAK)
9) Kris Bryant (CHC)
10) Yoan Moncada (CWS)
Just outside my top 10 but I would not mind drafting: Justin Turner (LAD)
Young players with upside I like: Alec Bohm (PHI), Austin Riley (ATL), and Ke’Bryan Hayes (PIT)
Outfield
1) Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL)
2) Mike Trout (LAA)
3) Juan Soto (WSH)
4) Mookie Betts (LAD)
5) Christian Yelich (MIL)
6) Cody Bellinger (LAD)
7) George Springer (TOR)
8) Bryce Harper (WSH)
9) Marcell Ozuna (ATL)
10) Aaron Judge (NYY)
11) Luis Robert (CWS)
12) Kyle Tucker (HOU)
13) Charlie Blackmon (COL)
14) Michael Conforto (NYM)
15) Nick Castellanos (CIN)
16) Eddie Rosario (CLE)
17) Whit Merrifield (KC)
18) Starling Marte (MIA)
19) Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (TOR)
20) Jeff McNeil (NYM)
21) Teoscar Hernandez (TOR)
22) Randy Arozarena (TB)
23) Anthony Santander (BAL)
24) Joey Gallo (TEX)
25) Trent Grisham (SD)
26) Ramon Laureano (OAK)
27) Wil Myers (SD)
28) Tommy Pham (SD)
29) Max Kepler (MIN)
30) Byron Buxton (MIN)
Just outside my top 30 but I would not mind drafting: Alex Verdugo (BOS), Ryan Mountcastle (BAL), Dominic Smith (NYM), and Victor Robles (WSH)
Young players with upside I like: Kyle Lewis (SEA) and Dylan Carlson (STL)
Designated Hitter (may have other eligibility)
1) Yordan Alvarez (HOU)
2) J.D. Martinez (BOS)
3) Giancarlo Stanton (NYY)
4) Franmil Reyes (CLE)
5) Jorge Soler (KC)
6) Shohei Ohtani (LAA)
7) Michael Brantley (HOU)
8) Nelson Cruz (MIN)
Starting Pitcher
1) Jacob deGrom (NYM)
2) Gerrit Cole (NYY)
3) Shane Bieber (CLE)
4) Yu Darvish (SD)
5) Walker Buehler (LAD)
6) Max Scherzer (WSH)
7) Jack Flaherty (STL)
8) Clayton Kershaw (LAD)
9) Trevor Bauer (LAD)
10) Lucas Giolito (CWS)
11) Brandon Woodruff (MIL)
12) Tyler Glasnow (TB)
13) Luis Castillo (CIN)
14) Aaron Nola (PHI)
15) Blake Snell (SD)
16) Zach Grienke (HOU)
17) Stephen Strasburg (WSH)
18) Kenta Maeda (MIN)
19) Jose Berrios (MIN)
20) Lance Lynn (CWS)
Just outside my top 20 but I would not mind drafting: Dinelson Lamet (SD), Corbin Burnes (MIL), and Sonny Gray (CIN)
Young players with upside I like: most of the Miami Marlins SPs and Ian Anderson (ATL)
Relief Pitcher
1) Josh Hader (MIL)
2) Liam Hendricks (CWS)
3) Aroldis Chapman (NYY)
4) Raisel Iglesias (LAA)
5) Edwin Diaz (NYM)
6) Will Smith (ATL)
7) Kenley Jansen (LAD)
8) Trevor Rosenthal (OAK)
9) Ryan Pressly (HOU)
10) Brad Hand (WSH)
11) James Karinchak (CLE)
12) Craig Kimbrel (CHC)
13) Taylor Rogers (MIN)
14) Greg Holland (KC)
15) Giovanny Gallegos (STL)
16) Matt Barnes (BOS)
17) Diego Castillo (TB)
18) Rafael Montero (SEA)
19) Richard Rodriguez (PIT)
20) Anthony Bass (MIA)
Dominant Relief Pitchers who might not get saves but I would not mind drafting: Devin Williams (MIL), Amir Garrett (CIN), and Jordan Hicks (STL)
I hope my 2021 Win Daily Sports’ MLB Season-Long Fantasy Draft Guide helps you in your leagues and is not used against me in mine! Best of luck!
